Afghan reality: India may talk to ISI, Taliban

Discussion in 'Subcontinent & Central Asia' started by ajtr, Mar 6, 2010.

  1. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    JAi HO.This shows how out of touch GOI is.Or they are being realist?clap


    Afghan reality: India may talk to ISI, Taliban

     
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  3. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Strategic recalibration

     
  4. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Its really sad, but a fact. The US is losing there and is looking for a way out. Pakistan is biding its time before it lords over Astan. All the billions India has spent there will go waste.

    So India is basically taking stock of the situation to see if it will be worthwhile to stay put there or not. But what I dont understand is why India should talk with ISI and Taliban about it? They are not going to give us a millimeter of space. All we can do is pack our bags and leave along with the Americans, when the Americans leave that place. All hell will break lose then and we will find Karzai hanging on a pole castrated.

    The world has to take steps that all this doesnt happen, but the way things are looking, it doesnt look likely.
     
  5. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    All the indian billions will go waste only if india allows.And indian politicians have mercantile mentality.They can be good in economy etc but they dont have appetite for strategic games.Indian polity has always been status-quoits-means path of minimal loss.They always way in loss and gain before moving forward on strategy.at maximum they avoid confontation .thats why india has always remain boxed-in indian subcontinent with periodic shrinkage of area of it power base through out its history.we have to see what india can offer pakistan for doing saving its investments in afghanistan.can any one like to guess.....


    1.kashmir
    2.junaghad
    3.hyderabad
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2010
  6. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    http://www.tribuneindia.com/2010/20100218/edit.htm#4
     
  7. DaRk WaVe

    DaRk WaVe Regular Member

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    JAi HO.This shows how out of touch GOI is.Or they are being realist?



    Americans have to leave sooner or later & we undoubtedly having 'Pakistan Vs India - The Battle for Afghanistan '
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2010
  8. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    And you ll bring back the Taliban, thats the only way you can supposedly WIN in Astan! Your country ruined these peoples life by helping create the Taliban, now you will go onto repeat it I feel!
     
  9. DaRk WaVe

    DaRk WaVe Regular Member

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    The 2nd in Command of Taliban will be handed over to Americans soon, so whats the problem, Operation Mushtarik is successful & now they are looking for a major offensive towards Kandhar & there is been exchange of tactical plans to stop flow of insurgents
    Events are telling something else, Seems we are having gradual fall of Taliban :)

    India wants a Pro India Gov in Afghanistan which is certainly not in our favour
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2010
  10. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    If the Taliban comes back to power in Astan, i think it would in the future create problems for Pakistan itself. In its short sighted policy of propagating the Taliban to gain strategic depth, the Pakistan will infuse fresh life into the Taliban which will be counter productive. They were openly challenging Pakistani sovereignty in the tribal areas not too long ago. So be careful. American short sightedness during soviet days is costing it today. It will in the future for Pakistan.
     
  11. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    As K Subramanyam mentioned in a recent article:

    Four alternative scenarios are possible. First, the US outsourcing the Taliban neutralisation and buying to Pakistan willingly. This is the one popular with our strategic establishment. Second, the Pakistanis are sincerely cooperating with the US. This is perhaps the least likely scenario. Third, the Pakistanis trying out a second deception on the US successfully, with as adverse consequences as happened in seven years of Bush gullibility. The deception proceeds halfway and the US wakes up to it resulting in confrontation between the US and Pakistan. Last, the US is aware of the deception and has its counter-plans ready. Pakistan has a history of being overconfident and launching misadventures and coming to grief as the history of the 1965, 1971 and 1999 wars against India and their own terrorists turning against them prove.

    http://www.indianexpress.com/news/the-second-deception/586157/0
     
  12. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    Pakistanis are on the whole quite supportive of the good Taliban, notwithstanding the recent drama of some arrests which as per the below article were likely just a way to save the Taliban.

    Down the AfPak Rabbit Hole

    The village of Marjah is a meaningless strategic backwater. So why are the Pentagon and the press telling us the battle there was a huge victory?

    The release of Tim Burton's new blockbuster movie, Alice in Wonderland, is days away. The timing could not be more appropriate. Lewis Carroll's ironically opium-inspired tale of a rational person caught up inside a mad world with its own bizarre but consistent internal (il)logic has now surpassed Vietnam as the best paradigm to understand the war in Afghanistan.

    The war in Afghanistan, as we have written here and in Military Review (pdf), is indeed a near replication of the Vietnam War, including the assault on the strategically meaningless village of Marjah, which is itself a perfect re-enactment of Operation Meade River in 1968. But the callous cynicism of this war, which we described here in early December, and the mainstream media's brainless reporting on it, have descended past these sane parallels. We have now gone down the rabbit hole.

    Two months ago, the collection of mud-brick hovels known as Marjah might have been mistaken for a flyspeck on maps of Afghanistan. Today the media has nearly doubled its population from less than 50,000 to 80,000 -- the entire population of Nad Ali district, of which Nad Ali is the largest town, is approximately 99,000 -- and portrays the offensive there as the equivalent of the Normandy invasion, and the beginning of the end for the Taliban. In fact, however, the entire district of Nad Ali, which contains Marjah, represents about 2 percent of Regional Command (RC) South, the U.S. military's operational area that encompasses Helmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Zabul, Nimruz, and Daikundi provinces. RC South by itself is larger than all of South Vietnam, and the Taliban controls virtually all of it. This appears to have occurred to no one in the media.

    Nor have any noted that taking this nearly worthless postage stamp of real estate has tied down about half of all the real combat power and aviation assets of the international coalition in Afghanistan for a quarter of a year. The possibility that wasting massive amounts of U.S. and British blood, treasure, and time just to establish an Afghan Potemkin village with a "government in a box" might be exactly what the Taliban wants the coalition to do has apparently not occurred to either the press or to the generals who designed this operation.

    In reality, this battle -- the largest in Afghanistan since 2001 -- is essentially a giant public affairs exercise, designed to shore up dwindling domestic support for the war by creating an illusion of progress. In reporting it, the media has gulped down the whole bottle of "drink me" and shrunk to journalistic insignificance. In South Vietnam, an operational area smaller than RC South, the United States and its allies had over 2 million men under arms, including more than half a million Americans, the million-man Army of the Republic of Vietnam (ARVN), 75,000 coalition troops, the Vietnamese Regional Forces and Popular Forces (known as "Ruff-Puffs"), the South Vietnamese police, the Civilian Irregular Defense Groups (CIDG) and other militias -- and lost.

    Yet the media is breathlessly regurgitating Pentagon pronouncements that we have "turned the corner" and "reversed the momentum" in Afghanistan with fewer than 45,000 men under arms in all of RC South (including the Afghan army and police) by fighting for a month to secure a single hamlet. Last year this would have been déjà vu of the "five o'clock follies" of the Vietnam War. Now it feels more like the Mad Hatter's Tea Party. "How can we have more success," Alice might ask, "when we haven't had any yet?"

    So here we are in the AfPak Wonderland, complete with a Mad Hatter (the clueless and complacent media), Tweedledee and Tweedledum (the military, endlessly repeating itself and history), the White Rabbit (the State Department, scurrying to meetings and utterly irrelevant), the stoned Caterpillar (the CIA, obtuse, arrogant, and asking the wrong questions), the Dormouse (U.S. Embassy Kabul, who wakes up once in a while only to have his head stuffed in a teapot), the Cheshire Cat (President Obama, fading in and out of the picture, eloquent but puzzling), the Pack of Cards army (the Afghan National Army, self-explanatory), and their commander, the inane Queen of Hearts (Afghan President Hamid Karzai). (In Alice in Wonderland, however, the Dormouse is "suppressed" by the Queen of Hearts, not the White Rabbit or the Cheshire Cat, so the analogy is not quite perfect.)

    For his part, as the Economist noted this week, Karzai has made fools of all the Western officials who sternly admonished him to begin a new era of transparent democracy, seizing control of the Electoral Complaints Commission to dismiss its independent members. Like the Queen of Hearts, Karzai has literally lost his marbles, according to our sources in the presidential palace. Or, as U.S. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry more diplomatically phrased it in his leaked cable, his behavior has become "erratic." He hasn't started shouting "off with their heads" yet, but the legitimacy thing is toast. Only the massive public relations exercise in Marjah kept Karzai's kleptocracy out of the media spotlight in February.

    The military and political madness of the AfPak Wonderland has entered a new chapter of folly with the detention of a few Taliban mullahs in Pakistan, most notably Mullah Baradar, once the military strategist of the Quetta Shura, the primary Taliban leadership council headed by Mullah Omar. Like the Mock Turtle and the Gryphon in Alice in Wonderland, this has the Washington establishment dancing the whacked-out Lobster-Quadrille: Instant Afghanistan experts at the White House and pundits at august Beltway institutions like the Brookings Institution are absurdly calling the detentions a "sea change" in Pakistani behavior.

    In fact, it is no such thing. Pakistan has not abandoned overnight its 50-year worship of the totem of "strategic depth," its cornerstone belief that it must control Afghanistan, or its marriage to the Taliban, and anyone who believes that is indulging in magical thinking. What has happened is, in fact, a purge by Taliban hard-liners of men perceived to be insufficiently reliable, either ethnically or politically, or both. It is well-known that there had been a schism in the Quetta Shura for months, with hard-liner and former Gitmo prisoner Mullah Zakir (aka Abdullah Ghulam Rasoul) coming out on top over Mullah Baradar. Baradar sheltered fellow Popalzai Hamid Karzai in 2001 and possibly saved his life after an errant U.S. bomb in Uruzgan province killed several men on the Special Forces team that was escorting him. Baradar later became a confidant of the president's brother, paid CIA informer Ahmed Wali Karzai, and met occasionally with the president himself in the tangled web of Afghan politics.


    The core Ghilzai leadership of the Taliban had long suspected Baradar of being too willing to negotiate and too partial to his kinsmen in making field appointments. Indeed, this suspicion led to the creation of the Quetta Shura's Accountability Council in late 2009, whose job apparently included removing many of Baradar's excessively Durrani and Karlani appointments.

    This explains why when Mullah Zakir, the hard-line military chief of the Quetta Shura along with Baradar, was detained near Peshawar two weeks after Baradar was detained, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) - Pakistan's powerful military spy service -- released him immediately. Meanwhile, all of the other lesser figures currently in detention (including Abdul Kabir, aka Mullah Abdul Kahir Osmani, the RC East regional commander; Mullah Abdul Rauf Aliza, an Alizai Durrani, former Gitmo prisoner, and Taliban military chief for northern Afghanistan; and Mullah Ahmed Jan Akhundzada, former shadow governor of Uruzgan province and Ishaqzai Durrani) are known moderates and allies of Baradar.

    In other words, the Quetta Shura has used the ISI, its loyal and steadfast patron, to take out its trash. Those few mullahs suspected of being amenable to discussions with the infidel enemy and thus ideologically impure have now been removed from the jihad. This is not cooperation against the Taliban by an allied state; it is collusion with the Taliban by an enemy state. Pakistan is in fact following its own perceived strategic interests, which do not coincide with those of the United States. Pakistan has masterfully plied the Western establishment with an LSD-laced "drink me" cocktail of its own, convincing everyone that it is a frail and fragile Humpty-Dumpty that must not be pushed too hard, lest the nuclear egg fall off the wall. This is nonsense. In fact, what is needed against Pakistan's military leaders is a lever more powerful than "strategic depth" to force them into compliance and make them stop sheltering al Qaeda, destabilizing Afghanistan, and killing hundreds of Americans by proxy.

    Unfortunately, in this AfPak Wonderland, there does not appear to be any magic mushroom to get back to normal. Instead, Afghanistan and Pakistan policy is trapped in an endless loop in a mad policy world operating under its own consistent internal illogic. Unlike Alice, the handful of Afghan analysts in the United States who actually understand what is happening cannot wake up or break through the corporate media noise. Far worse, thousands of brave U.S. Marines and soldiers are caught up in this deadly political croquet game where IEDs, not hedgehogs, are the game balls. The Duchess's baby really has turned into a pig, and there seems to be no way out of this increasingly insane rabbit hole.
     
  13. DaRk WaVe

    DaRk WaVe Regular Member

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    ^^^

    talk about conspiracy theories, Mullah Bradar will be handed over to US & ISAF is planning for a bigger Operation in Helmand & Quetta Shura, bwahhh my foot

     
  14. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    Pakistan was denying the very existence of Queta Shura till the other day!

    There is obviously more to the recent events than meets the eye. The articles I shared above are a good starting point.

    To Pakistan's credit I must say thay have mastered the art of bluffing the USA and extracting moolah in the bargain. You may likely succeed again.
     
  15. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    I like the delicious irony of a Pakistani accusing an Indian of believing in conspiracy theories!

    It has always been the other way round. Anyway I have posted an article from a respected journal and this concern is not limited to conspiracy theories by any means. It is quite widespread.
     
  16. DaRk WaVe

    DaRk WaVe Regular Member

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    here is the Bradar, Americans can take him & talk to him, we have already 'talked' to him & he 'talked'
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2010
  17. DaRk WaVe

    DaRk WaVe Regular Member

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    who care's about the past the fact is we got them & there is no bluffing going on, Actions speak louder than words, Quetta Shura is effectively liquidated ;)

     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2010
  18. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    Past is the surest indication of the future!

    OK, I have seen this list and the foreign policy article gives a plausible reason for these arrests.

    Who is right? We need to wait and see.

    The past shows that Pakistan doesn't get rid of its proxies so fast and so easily. One doesn't know what has changed so suddenly and so significantly.
     
  19. DaRk WaVe

    DaRk WaVe Regular Member

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    for now future seems dark for taliban & presence of India in Afghanistan ;)

    agreed

    hahahha, Told ya there is no bluffing going on, We got 'em, may be hard to believe but have 'em & Bradar is going to have some orgasms in CIA detention centers after some treatment by ISI & guess what it was Bradar who 'talked' to us ;)
     
  20. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Its not simple as you are trying to make.Afghanistan situation is like an onion,each layer you peel u get another new layer.there is a game of chess being played betwin various visible and invisible players .
    Pakistan court blocks Baradar extradition

     
  21. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    We will see, won't we?

    I won't begrudge you that smile though. The game is on.

    Baradar was always talking to ISI. I heard he had a hotline to the ISI headquarters. ;)
     

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