A Seismic Shift in India’s Pakistan Policy

Discussion in 'Foreign Relations' started by Zebra, Aug 25, 2015.

  1. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    http://idrw.org/a-seismic-shift-in-indias-pakistan-policy/#more-72302

    A Seismic Shift in India’s Pakistan Policy

    Published August 25, 2015 | By admin
    SOURCE: THE DIPLOMAT


    The much-hyped National Security Adviser (NSA)-level talks between India and Pakistan scheduled for this week may have collapsed even before they could formally start. But the Modi government managed to convey the message that it has been successful in reshaping the terms of New Delhi’s engagement with Islamabad, perhaps forever. This is a seismic shift in India’s Pakistan policy and should be recognized as such.

    Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif met in Ufa, Russia on the side-lines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit last month. They issued a joint statement in which they “condemned terrorism in all its forms and agreed to cooperate with each other to eliminate the menace of terrorism from South Asia.”

    It would have been an ordinary meeting but for the fact that the two leaders were meeting for the first time since May 2014 and their meeting came after increased border hostilities in the past few months and the backdrop of India having cancelled secretary-level talks last year. When Modi held his first meeting with Sharif in Delhi soon after becoming the Prime Minister in May 2014, the two decided to hold secretary-level talks which were scheduled for August 2014. But those talks were cancelled by India after Pakistan’s engagement with Kashmiri separatists. So after more than ten months, the Modi government’s decision to re-engage Pakistan was seen by some as New Delhi’s “on again, off again” inconsistent approach towards Pakistan while others hyped it as being a “gamechanger” and a “breakthrough.”

    At Ufa, Modi and Sharif agreed to hold a meeting of their top security advisers to discuss terrorism. But there were other steps as well, including meetings of the Director Generals of India’s Border Security Force and Pakistan Rangers to stabilize the border, release of fishermen in each other’s custody, and a mechanism for facilitating religious tourism. Additionally, Modi accepted Sharif’s invitation to the South Asian regional summit, which is going to be held in Islamabad next year. The trip will not only be Modi’s first visit to Pakistan after coming to power but it would also be the first time an Indian leader would visit Pakistan since Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2004.

    Pakistan’s agreement to expedite the 2008 Mumbai terror attack trial and no specific mention of Kashmir was viewed as a major diplomatic victory for India and a sign of changing mind-set in Pakistan. But the euphoria collapsed within hours as Pakistan went back on a number of its commitments. Sharif’s national security adviser made it clear that more information would be required to resume the trial of Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi, the alleged mastermind behind the 26/11 Mumbai attacks. Lakhvi, operational commander of the now banned organization Laskhar-e-Taiba (LeT), is among seven persons charged with planning and helping carry out the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Much to India’s consternation, he was released from jail in April, after a court order dismissed detention orders issued against him. Islamabad also reiterated that there could not be any dialogue with India unless the issue of Kashmir was on the agenda.

    Days before this week’s meeting of the two NSAs, it had seemed that both sides were provoking each other to cancel the talks. Pakistan expected that India would allow its national security adviser Sartaj Aziz to meet with the Kashmiri separatist leaders during his visit to Delhi. And India made it clear that it would not be “appropriate” for Aziz to meet the leaders and briefly detained and released some of them to buttress its point. And finally, Pakistan decided to call off the talks after he Indian foreign minister reiterated that bilateral talks could not take place if Pakistan’s national security adviser did not drop plans to meet Kashmiri separatist leaders.

    Ever since coming to power in May 204, the Modi government has been gradually reshaping underpinnings of India’s Pakistan policy. It appears to have recognized from the very beginning that a quest for durable peace with Pakistan is a non-starter. All that matters is the management of a neighbor that is more often than not viewed as a nuisance by Delhi. For India, the real challenge is China which has pledged $46 billion worth of investment in Pakistan and recently blocked India’s move to seek action against Pakistan for release of Lakhvi in the Mumbai attack trial at a meeting of the UN Sanctions Committee.

    After years of ceding the initiative to Pakistan, the Modi government wants to dictate the terms for negotiations. It has reached out to the Pakistani civilian government even as it has decided to underline to the Pakistani military the costs of its dangerous escalatory tactics on the border with massive targeted attacks on Pakistani forces along the border. And now with its latest move of drawing clear red lines for Pakistan, it has sent out several signals to various interlocutors. To Pakistan, the message cannot be clearer that there are only two parties involved in the dispute. The separatists leaders of Kashmir have no locus standi in the matter and India retains the levers to marginalize them should the need arise. In one stroke, New Delhi has made separatists hardliners redundant and Pakistan will find its old tactic of wooing the separatists will no longer pay it any dividends.

    The Modi government has also underscored, for the international community, the Pakistani Army’s continuing primacy in setting the agenda for Islamabad’s India policy. Nawaz Sharif, however well-intentioned, is yet to demonstrate that he can take on the all-powerful military when it comes to India. This was soon evident when border tensions rose soon after last month’s meeting with Modi and even suggestions from the Pakistani Army that it has shot down an Indian drone which later turned out to be Chinese made DJI phantom 3.

    At a time when Indian foreign policy horizons are widening and New Delhi is self-confident about its own role in the world, the Modi government has decided to leave it to Pakistan to decide if it wants to engage with India. If its only instrument of choice remains terrorism, then Indian military is enough to tackle it. Indian diplomacy has more important things to worry about.
     
    IndianHawk and Srinivas_K like this.
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  3. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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  4. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    That was well played.........................
     
  5. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    Watch it again and again at 2:56 / 3:46 ....................................................

     
  6. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    ...........................................................................................
     
  7. Cutting Edge 2

    Cutting Edge 2 Regular Member

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    India signals a more muscular approach to deal with Pakistan

    Government plans significant hike in defence budget; Pakistan summons Indian diplomat over truce breach

    Last Modified: Thu, May 11 2017. 11 17 PM IST

    New Delhi: The Indian government has signalled a more muscular approach towards Pakistan, with a senior government functionary saying that the country is poised to significantly increase its defence budget.

    The person, who did not want to be named, said the spike in tensions with Pakistan was unlikely to impinge on India’s economic growth and stability.

    “We have to live with it (Pakistan). One impact it will have on our finances is that we have to increase our defence budget. But we expect demonetisation and implementation of GST (goods and services tax, seen as India’s most ambitious tax reform) in the medium term, will give us enough to make higher allocations for defence,” the person said.

    When asked how India would respond to the killing and beheading of two Indian security personnel on the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir on 1 May, the person said the Indian Army would choose the time and place for its response.

    India-Pakistan ties have been in free fall in the past year mainly due to three major attacks by terrorists on key military installations in India. On 2 January last year, terrorists attacked the Pathankot air force station, derailing a nascent peace process set in motion just weeks earlier with the visits of Indian foreign minister Sushma Swaraj to Islamabad and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Lahore in December 2015.

    A second attack on an Indian Army garrison in Uri, Kashmir on 18 September and a third on an Indian Army residential complex in November stoked tensions between the two countries, derailing any hopes of the resumption of a dialogue stalled since 2013.

    Tensions have remained high this year too with many violations of a 2003 ceasefire between the two countries being reported.

    That India had already adopted a tougher line towards Pakistan came when its military, in a rare public announcement, said that on 29 September it had conducted “surgical strikes” to take out terrorist launch pads situated beyond the de facto border in Kashmir.

    The September surgical strikes were a response to the attack in Uri in which 19 Indian soldiers were killed.

    Even prior to the surgical strikes, India’s response to Pakistan’s violations of a 2003 ceasefire pact between the two countries along their borders —seen as aimed at terrorizing the population living on the Indian side of the border or providing covering fire for terrorists waiting to infiltrate into India—has been seen as inflicting heavy damage on Pakistani posts and positions.

    Evidence that there was no change of course came on Thursday with Pakistan summoning Indian deputy high commissioner J.P. Singh to the foreign office in Islamabad over firing along the LoC that killed one person and injured three others. Pakistan foreign office spokesperson Nafees Zakaria in Twitter posts accused India of violating the 2003 ceasefire agreement in Tandar, Sabzkot, Khuiratta, Baron, Bagsar and Khanjar.

    The Indian shelling followed the death of a 35-year-old Indian woman in mortar shelling by Pakistani troops in the Nowshera sector of Jammu and Kashmir’s Rajouri district.

    Analysts say increasing the defence budget and strengthening Indian defences were welcome steps but what India needs is a change in tactics.

    “Increasing the defence budget is fine but we need to know how to deal with the Pakistan Army which is a rogue army,” said Gaurav Arya, a defence analyst. “We need to make it expensive for the Pakistan Army to wage war against us.”

    “We also need to be aware of the close links between China and Pakistan and we need to be ready to fight a two-front war,”
    he added.

    C.U. Bhaskar, a retired naval commodore and currently director of the Society for Policy Studies think tank in New Delhi, said: “India needs to acquire defence capacity to deal with a variety of challenges of which Pakistan is the most visible.”

    “A higher index of national power creates more space to deal with security challenges,” he said. “But more than higher allocations, we have to spend the budget in an appropriate manner,” he said, faulting budget spending for some of India’s security woes.

    http://www.livemint.com/Politics/RK...-muscular-approach-to-deal-with-Pakistan.html
     
  8. dhananjay1

    dhananjay1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    To Indian government: Put money where your mouth is, talk is cheap.
     
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  9. Krusty

    Krusty Senior Member Senior Member

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    I'm not buying this. Let me see the results first before deciding if or not India is flexing its muscle.
     
  10. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Won't give in to this till I see some paki heads.
     
  11. Butter Chicken

    Butter Chicken Senior Member Senior Member

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    Increasing defence budget is not an answer.Our current budget is enough to destroy Pakistan.Stupid politicians did not seize initiatives in the past,the best time is now rather than in future
     
  12. Guest

    Guest Regular Member

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    Our defense budget may be enough to deter them- But not launch a successful offensive- It had taken 14 days for Army to occupy till Sakargarh in 1971 and that was just 8 miles and Pakis barely resisted their main force was behind Narowal-Chawinda axis-

    The capability tough improved by the induction of BMP-2s and T-72 has improved but we still have much catching up to do- And nowadays a new dimension of Urban warfare is added- Which requires upgrading and training Infantry extensively- Which is a costly affair-

    As of now at best we can hurt Pakistan by artillery and airstrikes- But that would make them victims and Chinese equipment, Arab $$ and oil could start pouring in- Which is something we don't want-
     
  13. busesaway

    busesaway Regular Member

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    India needs to attract China away from the Middle East.

    1. build a wall in North-West India against the Middle East to impede any military invasion and migrants
    2. establish a gendamerie in order to police North-West India and the Arabian Sea, deal with Islamist activities, and undertake interventionist operations on foriegn soil
    3. demand that China disengages with Islamists and Pakistan, and offer China access to the Arabian Sea through India in return at favorable rates
    4. demand that China allows Tibet to enjoy its Tibetan culture within the realms of economic progress and health+safety
    5. request that China provides economic investment into India in order to spur economic growth and alleviate poverty
     
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  14. Screambowl

    Screambowl Senior Member Senior Member

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    The Pakistan which is India dealing currently is not the Pakistan which was there 5 years back.

    This Pakistan has 100b loans taken from China
    This Pakistan has extensive Chinese support
    This Pakistan is totally a colony of China.

    So policy needs to be changed.
     

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