2025: Who will overtake US Economy First?

[Martian]

why? 'cos it means mutually assured destruction. that is why US never fought USSR even at the peak of cold war.

it never will. max it may do is clandestine arms supply to india and some movement of their naval fleet around china. that is all. they wont fire a single shot.

You have changed my mind. I was pretty sure that the US was going to partner with India and use India as a counterweight to China. However, I am starting to have my doubts. I used to believe in the too-big-to-fail theory. Here's the logic chain: India is very big and important --> If US partners with India --> then US will strongly back India if India goes eyeball-to-eyeball with China.

But, is it possible in an India-China crisis that the US will walk away like it did in Georgia? In comparison to Georgia, India is a huge and important partner, but will the US fight a war against another nuclear-armed P5 member? Hmmm...

 

[p2prada]

Look on the bright side. US had sanctions against China for 20 years. Also, the US is still continuing sanctions against Russia; 1974 Jackson-Vanik law is still in effect and keeping Russia out of WTO. I guess India's still mad about those lost 30 years.

We are not mad about the lost 30 years. We were building our own industry at that time. The sanctions actually helped us. We built our own institutions in education and industry rather than relying on foreign support. Without the sanctions most of our domestic companies would not have been where they are today. Our nuclear and space industries are largely indigenous too.

But, considering the past, we are just being cautious when dealing with the US. That's why there is a lot of resentment in India when it came to the Nuclear Deal.

 

[ppgj]

I was pretty sure that the US was going to partner with India and use India as a counterweight to China. However, I am starting to have my doubts.

that will still happen. the only way US can make sure CHINA wont challenge them in global supremacy is to put in a counteracting force. that is where they find india juicy. that is why they are trying to sell high tech arms to india now. but india will go by its own national interest and security but in that bargain may give US the collateral gain they are looking for.

But, is it possible in an India-China crisis that the US will walk away like it did in Georgia?

US has business and economic interests in both india and china. so they wont like to see a war between them. they will make sure that wont happen.
neither india nor china will get into war for economic reasons.

 

[ant80]

You have changed my mind. I was pretty sure that the US was going to partner with India and use India as a counterweight to China. However, I am starting to have my doubts. I used to believe in the too-big-to-fail theory. Here's the logic chain: India is very big and important --> If US partners with India --> then US will strongly back India if India goes eyeball-to-eyeball with China.

Until the time when US interests conflict with Indian interests. Then, kaput!

But, is it possible in an India-China crisis that the US will walk away like it did in Georgia? In comparison to Georgia, India is a huge and important partner, but will the US fight a war against another nuclear-armed P5 member? Hmmm...

Remember the old saying? A friend in need is a friend indeed. Us Indians like to use quotes like that often. We believe it, we live by it. Bottom line. If US takes anything other than a strong Indian tilt under such circumstances, then India will NEVER trust the US. And if that does come to pass, India will give the US a one-finger-salute and start developing ICBM's.

 

[thakur_ritesh]

17 years is a very long time span for anything to be predicted and with the uncertainties that surround the economic climate in general it comes across as more of a purposeless exercise. consultancy houses get into predictions for they need to create hype around their names for they are in a business where if their short term predictions come true that enhances their reputations which helps them market themselves and their products better, their business is all about reputations. don’t they keep altering their predictions in every 1-3 months, which in it self speaks volumes about their consistency and here we are talking about 17 years from now.

the prc today has a crises staring it down the barrel, the asset bubble is one hell of a challenge that faces them, india had one but it has pretty much cooled down with the world economic slow down since money flowing into the real estate market took a big hit from the overseas markets. hopefully the prc does not hit the rock bottom on this issue or else one country which has played a significant part in the recovery of the us will go one down and then things are going to get very very nasty. factory lay offs is another challenge but with consumer spending increasing in the west, that will be taken care of.

one thing that could suck in the chinese would be a war, and if the americans remain suspicious of the chinese, then it is a very likely scenario. uncle sam wont let go his hegemony just like that and highly unlikely they will let it go to a communist nation, and so the reason the chinese have been propagating that they will transform to a democracy in due course of time which is just to quell the fears of the west, when nothing of the sort is going to happen.

if the prc can over come the economic uncertainties successfully and if they can take care of all the fears of the west about their intentions, which at the moment remain very suspicious, then there is nothing stopping them. given that between 2025-30 the prc would be right up there.

 

[badguy2000]

that will still happen. the only way US can make sure CHINA wont challenge them in global supremacy is to put in a counteracting force. that is where they find india juicy. that is why they are trying to sell high tech arms to india now. but india will go by its own national interest and security but in that bargain may give US the collateral gain they are looking for.

why should CHina "chllenge" yankee's global superemacy?

what we need do is just to peacely "take over " yankee's global supermacy according to yankee's appeal.

guy, "global supremacy" does not only means a glory,but also means reponsiblities and burdens.

Once Yankees economy and military can not burden such a heavy reponsiblity any more, they will have to appeal help to china and volunteer in pass the postions to china.......just as UK passed the positions to USA after WW II.

that is what is USA doing with CHina now ....i

"hi CHina, can you take care of N.korea for me? thanks in advance!"
"hello, is that china? Yankees speaking...can you persude Sudan to cooperate with us? thanks!"
"hello, china, can yoiu hold more T-bills? thanks".....
"hi, china ,pls do me a favor! can you invest more fund and hire more locals in Afghanistan? I pledge to provide enough army to protect your investment..."



in a word, yankee's economy can not burden their global ambitions any more and have to ask help to china.
And, when We chinese are generously helping yankees with those global problems, Yankees in fact are reluctantly gifting the dominant roles of those issues to china ...after the dominants roles of all global issues are gradually gifted to china by Yankees, Yankee's global supremacy will also be gifted to chinese too.

 

[p2prada]

why should CHina "chllenge" yankee's global superemacy?

what we need do is just to peacely "take over " yankee's global supermacy according to yankee's appeal.

guy, "global supremacy" does not only means a glory,but also means reponsiblities and burdens.

Once Yankees economy and military can not burden such a heavy reponsiblity any more, they will have to appeal help to china and volunteer in pass the postions to china.......just as UK passed the positions to USA after WW II.

that is what is USA doing with CHina now ....i

"hi CHina, can you take care of N.korea for me? thanks in advance!"
"hello, is that china? Yankees speaking...can you persude Sudan to cooperate with us? thanks!"
"hello, china, can yoiu hold more T-bills? thanks".....
"hi, china ,pls do me a favor! can you invest more fund and hire more locals in Afghanistan? I pledge to provide enough army to protect your investment..."



in a word, yankee's economy can not burden their global ambitions any more and have to ask help to china.
And, when We chinese generously are helping yankees with those global problems, Yankees in fact are gifting the dominant roles of those issues to china ...after the dominants roles of all global issues are gradually gifted to china by Yankees, Yankee's global supremacy will also be gifted to chinese too.

You are being naive. You are assuming too much. US will never ask for Chinese help in anything except N Korea.

 

[Koji]

They have already asked for help, albeit quietly in Afghanistan. US troops are providing security to Chinese mining operations and hoping for the creation of jobs and stability.

And believe it, the US will ask for help from China on the issue of Iranian sanctions.

 

[badguy2000]

You are being naive. You are assuming too much. US will never ask for Chinese help in anything except N Korea.

there will be more "except" ,from T-bills to the exhange rate of RMB,from Afghanistan to Iran......let's wait and see.

guy, you will be the lucky guys who can see such a " chinese peaceful take-over of yankee's power"

 

[p2prada]

there will be more "except" ,from T-bills to the exhange rate of RMB,from Afghanistan to Iran......let's wait and see.

guy, you will be the lucky guys who can see such a " chinese peaceful take-over of yankee's power"

RMB rates etc are purely bilateral. A Chinese take over of American Hegemony is only feasible if you can project the same kind of military power. Even after that the Americans will not go down. So, instead of hegemony you will see another cold war, this time between China and America. It will only lead to the creation of a multipolar world.

A Chinese hegemony is possible if America suddenly decides to split into 15 different states and starts selling their military technology at a cheap price.

The American hegemony also came quite peacefully.

 

[badguy2000]

RMB rates etc are purely bilateral. A Chinese take over of American Hegemony is only feasible if you can project the same kind of military power. Even after that the Americans will not go down. So, instead of hegemony you will see another cold war, this time between China and America. It will only lead to the creation of a multipolar world.

A Chinese hegemony is possible if America suddenly decides to split into 15 different states and starts selling their military technology at a cheap price.

The American hegemony also came quite peacefully.

"military" is one side of "power" ,but "power" is not just only "military".

if one's economy can not burden its military adventure, its powerful military force is other's mercenaries.

For example.
In Afghanistan, USA troops are fighting hard, so that CHinese can invest and earn money there .

In New York, Chinese are buying more T-bills ,in order that Yankees can have enough fund to support their adventure in Afghanistan.

it is irony that yankee's are shedding blood to protect Chinese businessmen,while CHinese fund USA's military oversea adventure, isn't it?

So, in fact, to some extent, Yankee's troops in Afghnistan become the mercenaries of Chinse businessmen.

guy, what is happening in Afghnistan is a token of the coming world order,that is :

" a world under the rule of chinese money + Yankee's bayonets"

 

[p2prada]

They have already asked for help, albeit quietly in Afghanistan. US troops are providing security to Chinese mining operations and hoping for the creation of jobs and stability.

And believe it, the US will ask for help from China on the issue of Iranian sanctions.

The Afghanistan part is understood. India is also a part of the reconstruction effort and there are 400/800(don't know which) Indian troops in Afghanistan providing security to the workers.

China has still not shown active involvement in Afghanistan when there are already 15 other countries in Afghanistan.

US will obviously ask for help from China considering Iran because China is a part of the P-5. The P-5 is the one that sanctions countries. IF US manages to win Chinese favour, then the Russians will be alone in their endeavour to keep Iran up and running, and might force them to take the American stand.

 

[thakur_ritesh]

[mod]come on guys, all back to the topic. no more pointless off topic discussion[/mod]

 

[ppgj]

why should CHina "chllenge" yankee's global superemacy?

then how do you explain china military build up? why do they need ICBMs?

what we need do is just to peacely "take over " yankee's global supermacy according to yankee's appeal.

whether it is peaceful or military, USA will not allow the challenge. they have been doing it for ages. not only china, they wont allow anyone.

guy, "global supremacy" does not only means a glory,but also means reponsiblities and burdens.

agreed.

Once Yankees economy and military can not burden such a heavy reponsiblity any more, they will have to appeal help to china and volunteer in pass the postions to china...
that is what is USA doing with CHina now ....i

"hi CHina, can you take care of N.korea for me? thanks in advance!"
"hello, is that china? Yankees speaking...can you persude Sudan to cooperate with us? thanks!"
"hello, china, can yoiu hold more T-bills? thanks".....
"hi, china ,pls do me a favor! can you invest more fund and hire more locals in Afghanistan? I pledge to provide enough army to protect your investment..."

you answered yourself to your own "burdens and responsibilty" observation. this USA will do with all the countries depending on the situations they face.

in a word, yankee's economy can not burden their global ambitions any more and have to ask help to china.
And, when We chinese are generously helping yankees with those global problems, Yankees in fact are reluctantly gifting the dominant roles of those issues to china ...after the dominants roles of all global issues are gradually gifted to china by Yankees, Yankee's global supremacy will also be gifted to chinese too.

they are only using you to flatter you. it helps them more.

 

[badguy2000]

then how do you explain china military build up? why do they need ICBMs?

it is just temporary expediential to hire yankee's as Chinese mercenaires.

in the coming one or two decades, it is a more economical and pragmatical measure to hire yankees.

but in a long run, Chinese must protect its businessmen with its own bayonets.

that is why we are so busy casting our own bayonets.

whether it is peaceful or military, USA will not allow the challenge. they have been doing it for ages. not only china, they wont allow anyone.

it has nothing to do with USA's will ,but with the balance of gloabl economy power.

it is meaningless that " USA will not allow the challenge" .
in fact, it was very reluctant for UK to hand its supremacy out to USA too.but global power banlance made UK hand its global supremacy to USA peacefully,however reluctant UK was .


the global economy power balance makes USA not burden to much the responsibilty of global supremacy alone. so USA has to share its supremacy with a country that can fund it.

Unfortunately, the country is CHina. However much Yankees dislike CHina, they ironically find that they have no choice but to cooperate china now.

attention
" economy is base while politics and military are just upperbuildings on the base."

.

 

[Yusuf]

Question here is how far do the Chinese cook their books. How much of the economy is artificial based on the cooked books. Their exchange rate is another issue as it is pegged. If they were to let free their currency, and if the RMB goes at par with the Dollar, then what?

China has made tremendous progress in the last couple of decades, but we dont know all the facts about them.
Also their economy is far too US driven which can be controlled if push comes to shove.

 

[ppgj]

the global economy power balance makes USA not burden to much the responsibilty of global supremacy alone. so USA has to share its supremacy with a country that can fund it.

agree. they will cooperate where it suits them. sometimes it may help both sometimes not.

Unfortunately, the country is CHina. However much Yankees dislike CHina, they ironically find that they have no choice but to cooperate china now.

look at taiwan, they oppose you.
look at north korea, they take your support.
that is what it is. they will cooperate when it suits them.

attention
" economy is base while politics and military are just upperbuildings on the base."

exactly. that is why US has been the master.

 

[redragon]

Question here is how far do the Chinese cook their books. How much of the economy is artificial based on the cooked books. Their exchange rate is another issue as it is pegged. If they were to let free their currency, and if the RMB goes at par with the Dollar, then what?

China has made tremendous progress in the last couple of decades, but we dont know all the facts about them.
Also their economy is far too US driven which can be controlled if push comes to shove.

I agree with you that the book is cook.
However the purpose for China to do that is not to boast the economy but to hide the real power of it, China's economy is bigger that what is showing on sta

 

[badguy2000]

I agree with you that the book is cook.
However the purpose for China to do that is not to boast the economy but to hide the real power of it, China's economy is bigger that what is showing on sta

Deng Xiaopin told chinese to hide its power and ambitions and wait for good chance.

 

[Vladimir79]

I agree with you that the book is cook.
However the purpose for China to do that is not to boast the economy but to hide the real power of it, China's economy is bigger that what is showing on sta

I haven't had a laugh that good in awhile. :coffee_spray: