2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a govt?

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by kseeker, Feb 27, 2014.

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Who would you like to see forming a Govt?

  1. AAP

    1 vote(s)
    3.3%
  2. BJP led NDA

    28 vote(s)
    93.3%
  3. Congress led UPA

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. Third Front

    1 vote(s)
    3.3%
  1. kseeker

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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    Lok Sabha elections: Pew Research Center survey suggests crushing loss for Congress - The Times of India

    NEW DELHI: Two months before the general elections, a new US poll suggests that the ruling party Congress may suffer one of their worst defeats in the country's 67-year history.

    Seventy per cent of Indians say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in India today, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. And 63 per cent of those polled said they would prefer that the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party lead the next government, compared with just 19 per cent who picked the governing Congress party led by Sonia Gandhi.

    "This poll affirms what most of us suspected," said Shekhar Gupta, editor in chief of Indian Express. "But what it doesn't tell us is who will lead the next government."

    The pollsters interviewed 2,464 randomly selected adults at their homes between December 7 and January 12 in states and territories that are home to roughly 91 per cent of the Indian population. The poll has a margin of sampling error of four percentage points.

    Perhaps the most important finding was the popularity of Narendra Modi, the official prime ministerial candidate of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Pew found that 78 per cent of those polled had a favorable view of Modi, with just 16 per cent holding an unfavorable view.

    Modi, who is currently the chief minister of Gujarat, is considered by many to be the most controversial national political figure in India's history. He led the state during the 2002 riots which cost the lives of more than 1,000 people, mostly Muslims. He has been linked with a secret police assassination squad and with surveillance efforts concerning a woman he admired.

    But Modi has softened his image in recent months, and the Bharatiya Janata Party has undertaken an outreach to Muslims, who make up about 14 per cent of the India's population. Modi has presided over an economy in Gujarat that is among the strongest in India, and he has promised to bring to the rest of the country his economic expertise and ability to build good roads.

    Modi's brand of aspirational nationalism and barbed criticism of the governing coalition has attracted huge crowds to his speeches, but the fact that so few had a negative view of him in Pew's poll, given his controversial past, was somewhat surprising.

    Still, Modi's support in a national poll may not translate into his election as prime minister. The elections involve 814 million eligible voters and myriad regional parties. No single party has won a parliamentary majority since 1989, and none is likely to do so this year, political analysts say.

    "I think the BJP will do very well," Hartosh Singh Bal, the political editor of Caravan magazine. "That's clear from this poll. But whether Modi becomes the next prime minister will come down to 10 to 20 seats in Parliament."

    Indeed, three women from the crucial states of West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu lead political parties that may each earn enough seats to block Modi from his goal. And speculation is rife about how these three — Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and Jayalalithaa, the last two of whom go by one name — will play their cards.

    BJP spokesman Prakash Javadekar said the Pew poll was similar to many others that showed his party far ahead of the Congress party.

    "All this is because of a lack of vision and leadership in Congress and scam after scam during the last 10 years," he said. "The new aspirational class wants to test alternative politics."

    But Pankaj Pachauri, a spokesman for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, dismissed the Pew results. "India is too big and complex a country for pollsters to predict anything by talking to 2,500 people," Pachauri said. "The people have not spoken yet."

    There is widespread agreement that the Gandhis, India's dominant political family for most of its history, will suffer a crushing defeat. Sonia Gandhi is the president of the Congress party, but she has had health problems in recent years. Her son, Rahul, recently became the face of the party's campaign effort, but a poor showing in his first extensive TV interview in a decade led to widespread criticism. And his speeches, which often focus on changing the internal dynamics of the party, have not electrified the electorate.

    Most importantly, the governing coalition has been tarnished by repeated corruption scandals, and a slowing economy has added a sense of gloom.

    In the Pew poll, Gandhi was viewed favorably by 50 per cent of those surveyed and unfavorably by 43 per cent, but even many of those who say they are favorably disposed to him are tepid in their support. Fully 60 per cent of those surveyed said they had a very favorable view of Modi, compared with just 23 per cent who felt the same way about the designated heir of the Gandhi political dynasty.
     
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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    In India’s National Election, Don’t Trust the Polls | The Diplomat

    In India’s National Election, Don’t Trust the Polls
    Election polling in India has some severe limitations, especially at the national level.

    On February 13, a noteworthy diplomatic meeting occurred. Nancy Powell, the U.S. ambassador to India, met with Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, the chief minister of the Indian State of Gujarat, at his home in the new state capital of Gandhinager. The talks were the highest-level meeting between Modi and any U.S. government official since the State Department revoked Modi’s visa in 2005, following allegations that he and his State government had failed to protect minority Muslims from attacks by Hindus during the communal riots that swept across his Gujarat state in 2002.

    The sudden thaw in the relationship comes as India heads into the 2014 Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) elections to be held this April and May. Modi’s Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has named him as its candidate for prime minster should the BJP gain an electoral victory. By meeting with Modi, American officials are signaling that they view a BJP victory in the coming elections as a real possibility, and are hoping that they can improve the damaged relationship with Modi as much as possible prior to the election.

    Unsurprisingly, U.S. officials and India watchers around the world are closely monitoring the torrent of election polls and public opinion surveys streaming out of the Indian media to see where the BJP stacks up against its rivals as the elections draw near.

    In examining these polls, however, observers ought to be mindful of the fact that election polling in India is a notoriously unreliable exercise. It suffers from the political biases of the polling agencies and news outlets that produce the polls. A more serious challenge to reliability comes from operational problems inherent in India’s mammoth electorate, complex demographics, daunting geography and poor infrastructure, all of which make accurate polling an immensely labor intensive, expensive and often-dubious process.

    A Monumental Task

    Unlike the United States, where state electorates divide themselves relatively neatly into Reds and Blues, Indian states have their own idiosyncratic grouping of both national and regional political parties. The Indian Congress Party and the BJP, the two principal national parties, exert influence nationwide, but their power has waned in recent decades in favor of regional parties. These parties generally represent certain caste, linguistic, ethnic or class groups, groups which themselves are often uniquely in a particular state.

    Indeed, India has rarely demonstrated a pan-Indian, national voting pattern, except when a single emotive issue develops momentum, such as in the sympathy vote following the 1984 assassination of Indira Gandhi. In general, past elections have tended to turn on local issues and identity politics. While a few national issues such as inflation, anti-incumbency and national security are consistently of concern for many Indian voters nationwide, they have tended to play a secondary role in determining how citizens actually vote. Local politics are still the name of the game in India; and, unfortunately for the pollsters, Indian local politics are extremely hard to predict.

    This predominance of local politics, local issues and local parties, has given each of the 543 Indian parliamentary constituencies its own distinctive political color. Since national polling is most accurate when a survey sample can serve as a statistically meaningful representation of the national whole, and because India’s constituencies are so diverse and cast their votes for such different reasons, it makes a proper sample incredibly difficult to construct.

    To account for the diversity in the electorate, polls must be taken in most – if not all – of the 543 constituencies. This is extremely expensive and generally unworkable. Constituencies in India are also numerically huge (most have more than a million people) and often physically challenging for poll-takers to access. But technology is not a panacea for the pollsters: despite India’s rapidly growing telecommunications and Internet industries, the vast majority of Indians still live without phone or Internet access.

    This lack of communications infrastructure has made face-to-face, door-to-door surveying the preferred method of polling. Agencies send data collectors personally to survey village and city halls, bazaars and town courtyards, schools and universities. Unsurprisingly, this method is not the most efficient or cost-effective way to do polling.

    To get a meaningful number of interviews, in a majority of constituencies, a polling agency would need to employ a virtual army of pollsters. But because no single polling agency in India has the manpower or the funds to do meaningful door-to-door polling in a majority of constituencies, polling agencies must extrapolate data from one constituency to another; or, in some cases, to extrapolate data from a few constituencies to forecast an entire state. Agencies examine the socioeconomic composition of a constituency, look at the castes and religious communities represented, and use the data from that area to calculate and predict the results for another location with similar demographics. But since each area has its own distinctive set of issues and parties, extrapolation of data based exclusively on caste or socio-economic considerations is bound to be flawed on a larger scale.

    Anything But Evenhanded

    An additional source of poll unreliability stems from the relationship between India’s political parties and the polling agencies and media outlets. Indian news outlets – which ultimately sponsor the polls – tend to be ideologically slanted. Many have long-standing historical ties to political parties. A number of large, national dailies, such as the Hindu, Aaj Tak, and the Times of India, are either owned or operated by political party heavyweights. The Hindustan Times, for instance, was founded by long-time Congress Party supporters, the Birla family. K.K. Birla and G.D. Birla, who at different times owned and edited the paper, have both served as Congress Party MPs and provided a large amount of funding for the party. The Pioneer newspaper, another influential daily, is today partly-owned and edited by a standing MP of the BJP, Chandan Mitra. This political connection has at times colored the polls the papers release.

    Media is by no means separated from politics in the United States either, as any cursory look at Fox News and the political leanings of Rupert Murdoch would demonstrate. But the U.S. has trade bodies such as the American Association for Public Opinion Research and the National Council on Public Polls that issue guidelines on the dissemination of opinion poll results. And as a result, pollsters in the U.S. are usually forced to reveal their sample size, methodology and margin of error.

    No such institutional oversight exists in India. Apart from the CNN-IBN-The Hindu-CSDS poll, which put out a detailed note on the methodology, none of the polls even mention the number of respondents for their polls (at least, not in any of their public disclosures in newspapers).

    Moreover, news outlets do not even conduct the pre-election surveys they publish themselves. Instead, they contract private polling agencies to do the polling for them. Some of these companies, like C-Voter and MARG, are exclusively election polling groups. Most, however, are conventional commercial marketing research firms. These commercial marketing agencies are not often ideologically tied. Yet, because they are contracted by papers that do have political links and are better disposed to certain parties, there is often explicit or implicit pressure on polling agencies to skew their results in favor of the sponsor’s party of choice. Agencies that want to continue their contracts into the future and the papers want to have results that promote their party, forcing agencies at times to choose to ignore certain data, or to extrapolate statistics in a way sympathetic to the sponsor’s chosen party.

    Making matters even more difficult, the Indian voter is in general tight-lipped with his or her responses to pollsters. This has even been the case in more innocuous surveying like census data collection. Pollsters report that many voters do not think that polls or surveys are innocent, and that their responses to election polling will come back to harm them through retribution by the one party or another. Many opt instead to refuse to answer the questions, others just offer up an answer they think the pollster would like to hear. So even if polling were less of a biased, logistic nightmare, pollsters would have little confidence that people were answering truthfully.

    A History of Inaccuracy

    The lead up to the Lok Sabha election of 2004 highlights the unreliability of national polling. Nearly all pre-election polls suggested a robust victory for the BJP and its allies. The polling agencies and media outlets were left red-faced when the results showed a Congress Party upset. Granted, 2004 was ten years ago and polling methods have improved since then. Indeed predictions for the 2009 election were more accurate, with most polls correctly picking a slim Congress Party coalition victory. The 2009 election demonstrated that pre-election polls, when taken in aggregate, can provide some valuable insight.

    But while polling organizations may claim that they now employ the most sophisticated statistical modeling tools available, polling’s history – and India’s unique blend of confounding factors – has proven it unwise to take Indian polling as failsafe predictor of voter preference. The best the India-watchers can do is wait until the ballots are counted.

    Jonah Force Hill is an international affairs consultant and a former Fellow of the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
     
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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    BJP-led NDA set to top, but will miss 272-mark in Lok Sabha polls: survey - Hindustan Times

    The BJP-led national National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will emerge as the biggest formation in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, but will fall short of getting the majority mark of 272, an opinion poll by the Headlines Today said on Thursday.


    The poll gave the ruling Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 98-108 seats and predicted other parties would get 223-233 seats, indicating they would have a major role to play in government formation.

    The poll by C-Voter gave 188 seats in the Lok Sabha to the BJP — which would improve on its best showing of 183 seats in 1999 — under its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. The saffron party had bagged 116 seats in the 2009 general elections.

    The Congress would get 91 seats, down from the 206 in 2009, according to the poll.

    Two other television channels termed the BJP the biggest gainer in Uttar Pradesh, but saw the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) making inroads in Delhi on its Lok Sabha debut.

    While an opinion poll by CNN IBN-CSDS said the BJP would get 41-49 of UP’s 80 seats (the highest among states), an ABP News-Nielsen poll gave the saffron party 35 seats.

    The BJP had won 10 seats in UP in 2009 and the projected gains would be significant as it seeks to dethrone the Congress at the Centre.

    The polls see UP powerhouses, the ruling Samajwadi Party and opposition Bahujan Samaj Party, being reduced to 10 to 15 seats.

    Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP has 22 Lok Sabha seats and Mayawati’s BSP 21. Both parties extend outside support to the UPA government.

    The Congress which had performed well in UP in 2009 with 21 seats, will fare badly, according to the polls. The CNN IBN-CSDS gave it 4-10 seats and ABP News-Nielsen 12.

    After a stellar performance in the Delhi assembly elections last year, the AAP is set to win 4-6 of the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, according to the CNN IBN-CSDS survey.

    In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP will gain as well. According to the Headlines Today poll, BJP will get 21 (4 in 2009) of the 25 seats in Rajasthan; and 22 (16 in 2009) of the 29 seats in MP.

    In the assembly polls last year, the BJP ousted the Congress in Rajasthan with a landslide win and comfortably retained MP, with chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan scoring a hat-trick of wins.

    The Headlines Today poll sees the saffron party being the biggest gainer in Bihar, where it lost ally Janata Dal (United) following Modi’s elevation.

    The poll said the BJP will get 22 seats as compared to 12 in 2009. The party will gain at the cost of chief minister Nitish Kumar’s JD-U, which is projected to get 4 seats (20 in 2009).

    The Lok Sabha elections are due by May.
     
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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    Congress tally to decline, but BJP will fall short in 2014: survey - Livemint

    A new survey has projected a hung Parliament in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections despite the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the single largest party with 145-155 seats. This is because the Congress party, despite its poor governance record, will lose ground, yet come a close second with 130-140 seats.
    The survey conducted by Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd, an investment advisory firm, also said the main opposition party would improve on its 2009 performance by consolidating its core constituencies of upper caste, urban and educated voters and make gains in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan.
    The Congress may do better in Karnataka and Bihar but the snapping of its alliance with the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu will weaken its prospects in these states, the poll said.
    The survey conducted in 10 big states—Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat and Rajasthan—also concluded that the relevance of caste, the importance of pre-poll alliances, the role of governance and the electoral cycles of the states were the key themes that provided the basic framework to analyse the contours of electoral politics in India.
    The analysis of the ground-level situation in Uttar Pradesh, the politically crucial state that sends 80 lawmakers to the 545-member Lok Sabha, said that the BJP is expected to make gains by consolidating upper caste votes, mainly due to the Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, who heads its campaign team.
    The ruling Samajwadi Party (SP), which has 22 seats in the Lok Sabha, may gain minority votes, but lose Dalit and upper caste votes it won in the 2012 assembly election. The survey said the SP could win 25-27 seats, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 21-23 and the BJP 21-23, leaving just 7-9 for the Congress that had won 23 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.
    In Maharashtra, which has 40 Lok Sabha seats, the opposition Shiv Sena and BJP, which are alliance partners, may cash in on the anti-incumbency factor and win 10-12 and 15-17 seats, respectively. But the Maharahstra Navnirman Sena, a splinter group of the Sena, could be a spoiler and split the opposition alliance’s vote.
    In Andhra Pradesh, where the Congress is struggling to resolve a crisis arising out of the demand for a separate Telangana state, the ruling party may face a major electoral setback because of the newly formed YSR Congress. The Congress is not expected to improve its seat position against the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and may lose its dominance in Rajasthan, where runs the government, to the same party. But its recent victory in the Karnataka state elections may be repeated in the parliamentary election. The split in the Janata Dal (United)-BJP alliance in Bihar is likely to help the BJP mobilise upper caste votes, while a possible alliance with the Congress may help JD-U to consolidate minority support.
    The analysis said Tamil Nadu’s ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is likely to sweep the parliamentary election due to its alliances as well as governance record. In Gujarat, where the Modi-led BJP has been dominating politics, the society is “fairly fragmented in BJP’s favour.”
    The survey said the Left Front that ruled West Bengal for more than three decades before being bested by the TMC in 2011 will regain some of its lost ground. It tally may go up to 21-23 from the present 15 seats in the state.
    G.V.L. Narasimha Rao, a psephologist who works closely with the BJP, said it was too early to gauge the public mood.
    “Election is still months away and you don’t get the public mood so clearly. This has been the trend in the past too—the public mood is more visible (closer) towards the elections. Anti-incumbency could not get factored into the opinion polls now. However, it reflects the real mood. Unlike in 2004 and 09, the public anger against the government is visible even now,” he said.
    Balveer Arora, chairman of Centre for Multilevel Federalism, a New Delhi-based think tank, agreed that it was too early to reach a conclusion. “What the Congress is trying to do now is to limit the BJP’s growth in its stronghold. The ruling party is wooing the tribal votes that had shifted to the BJP. Ultimately, the pre-poll alliances matter—whether the Congress will be able to go as UPA with more partners, that is where it is expecting to trump BJP.”
     
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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    2014 General Elections Poll Predictions - CoolAge

    [​IMG]
    source: indiatoday.intoday.in

    Recently, three prediction polls by the ABP news (Nielsen), India Today (CVoter) and CSDS and CNN-IBN suggest that BJP will emerge as the largest party in the upcoming General Elections (May 2014).

    The ABP news-Nielsen national opinion poll suggests that BJP will grab somewhere around 210 out of the 543 parliamentary seats and on the other hand, Congress has been predicted to drown at 81 seats, the lowest ever. On the whole, BJP led National Democratic Alliance has been predicted to come to power with 226 seats.

    Another poll survey by CSDS and CNN-IBN has predicted the same general view as ABP news on the state level. It has predicted BJP's majority in big states for example, BJP, according to the poll is going to win around 41 to 49 seats out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, the state with highest number of Lok Sabha seats. The polls also conveyed that Modi seems to be the fair choice of the people with 53% respondents, acknowledging him.

    The Cvoter poll by India Today has suggested that BJP will win 188 seats, which is more than double of what Congress will be gaining.

    After the December results of Delhi Legislative elections, the Aam Aadmi Party came out to be another major party. The Aam Aadmi Party with the support of Congress is currently running the state of Delhi and therefore any poll survey would be incomplete without judging the stand of Aam Aadmi Party in the General Elections. According to polls, Aam Aadmi Party is estimated to gain somewhere around 11 seats.

    "Anything but not Congress. Congress led UPA has served a very bad second tenure. We cannot have them back, no way! Modi should come to power. He can bring the change." said Ayushi from Ramjas College.

    "The Gujarat's model of development is phenomenal. If we have Modi as our next prime minister, I am sure, he will feed the people's expectations." Said Prateek, a B.A. Program student from North Campus, Delhi University.

    We all know that the BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate is Narendra Modi but the Congress party is yet to announce its Prime Ministerial candidates however it is being guessed that Rahul Gandhi, the Vice President of Indian National Congress would lead for the same. The image of Congress has become lousy, encircled by corruption and slacked economic growth. On the other hand, people have high hopes from BJP's PM candidate, Narendra Modi. May is not far, a few more months and we know what the political reality is.
     
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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    BJP-led NDA front-runner in Lok Sabha polls: Survey - News Oneindia

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    New Delhi, Feb 22: The BJP-led NDA is likely to bag 236 seats with the main party getting 217 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress will be reduced to double-digits at 73 of the 92 seats projected for the UPA, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to get 10 seats, a survey said Saturday. While the Left parties are projected to get 29 seats, others are likely to collect 186 seats, according to the ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll conducted in 129 constituencies with 29,252 respondents during Feb 4-15.

    The projection said Bharatiya Janata Party's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi was the most preferred face with 57 percent of respondents backing him. Just 18 percent backed Rahul Gandhi, while Arvind Kejriwal was a distant third with just 3 percent backing. The projected BJP tally has increased by 10 seats compared to the opinion poll conducted in January by ABP News-Nielsen. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is predicted to get a vote share of 46 percent from western India and around 38 percent vote share in northern India. Break-up of the projected seats is NDA 236, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 92, Left 29 and others 186. Among the regional parties, the projection of seats is AIADMK 19, Trinamool Congress 29, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 16, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 13, Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) 18, CPI 7, DMK 13, and Janata Dal-United (JD-U) 9. According to the opinion poll, 46 percent of respondents said price rise/inflation affects their day to day lives the most, while 34 percent identified corruption as the biggest problem and 18 percent felt unemployment was a major issue. It said the BJP was likely to get around 80 seats of the 88 seats projected for the NDA in northern India. The AAP was likely to get 9 seats and Congress 17 seats of the 23 projected for the UPA. Other parties were likely to get 40 seats. There are 151 seats in northern India. In western India, the BJP is projected to get 79 seats of the 88 likely to go to the NDA. The Congress was likely to get 15 seats of the 22 projected for the UPA and AAP was likely to get only one seat. Six seats will go to others. States in western India together have 116 seats. The opinion poll said the UPA would lead marginally with 26 seats in southern India. The Congress was to get 23 of the 26 seats projected for the UPA. The BJP was likely to get 20 seats of the 21 projected for the NDA in southern states. The Left was likely to get 15 seats while others would get 72 seats. The southern states have a total of 134 seats. In eastern India, the opinion poll said the NDA would lead with 39 seats, with BJP likely to get 38 seats. The Congress was predicted to get 18 seats of the 21 projected for the UPA, the Left was likely to get 14 seats and others would get 68. Eastern India has 142 seats.
     
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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    Times Now C-Voter poll prediction: UPA to get 101 seats, NDA- 227 - News Oneindia

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    Bangalore, Feb 13: As the nation gears up for the Lok Sabha elections, pre- poll predictions ahead of the elections have a very interesting story to tell.

    According to Times Now national poll predictions in association with C-Voter, the Lok Sabha elections are in the favour of the BJP. While the poll predictions show BJP winning in many states, it also shows that regional parties continue to have a strong hold in their states giving national parties a tough fight.

    While the predition shows many records being broken including Modi breaking Vajpayee's record in Gujarat, by the end of it the numbers tell it all. According to the survey, UPA is likely to win 101 seats, whereas NDA is likely to get 227 seats. Other parties are liekly to receive 215 seats.

    Following is the state-wise prediction for the Lok Sabha elections:

    Andhra Pradesh (42): Cong-6, BJP- 2, TDP-10, TRS-10, YSR-13, OTH- 1

    Arunachal Pradesh (2): Cong-1, BJP-1

    Assam (14): Cong- 7, BJP-5, AUDP- 1, AGP- 0, BPF- 1, OTH-0

    Bihar (40): Cong- 1, BJP-21, JD(U)- 5, RJD- 12, LJP- 1, OTH- 0

    Chhatisgarh (11): Cong- 3, BJP- 8, OTH- 0

    Delhi (7): Cong- 0, BJP- 4, AAP- 3, OTH-0

    Goa (2); Cong- 1, BJP- 1, OTH- 0

    Gujarat (26): Cong- 4, BJP- 22, OTH-0

    Haryana (10): Cong- 1, BJP, 6, INLD- 1, AAP- 1, HJC- 1, OTH-O

    Himachal Pradesh (4): Cong- 1, BJP- 3, OTH-0

    Jammu and Kashmir (6): Cong- 1, BJP- 2, NC-1, PDP-2, OTH-0

    Jharkhand (14): Cong- 1, BJP- 8, JMM-2, JVM- 2, OTH- 0

    Karnataka (28): Cong- 14, BJP- 11, JD(S)- 2, AAP- 1, OTH-0

    Kerala (20): Cong- 7, BJP- 1, LEFT- 9, IUMC- 2, KC (M)- 1, OTH-0

    Madhya Pradesh (29): Cong-5, BJP- 24, BSP- 0, OTH-0

    Maharastra (48): Cong-8, BJP- 15, NCP- 5, SS- 15, MNS-1, OTH-4 Manipur (2): Cong-1, BJP-1

    Meghalaya (2): Cong- 1, NCP- 0 , NPP- 1, OTH-0

    Mizoram (1): Cong- 1, OTH-0

    Nagaland (1): Cong- 0, NPF- 1, OTH-0

    Odisha (21): Cong- 7, BJP- 2, BJD- 12, CPI- 0, OTH-0

    Punjab (13): Cong- 6, BJP-2, SAD- 5, OTH-0

    Rajasthan (25): Cong-4, BJP- 21, OTH-0

    Sikkim (1): Cong- 0, SDF- 1, OTH-0

    Tamil Nadu (39): Cong-1, DMK- 5, AIADMK- 27, LEFT-2, MDMK- 1, OTH-0

    Tripura (2): Cong- 0, CPI (M)- 2, OTH-0

    Uttar Pradesh (80): Cong- 4, BJP- 34, SP- 20, BSP- 21, RLD- 1, OTH-0

    Uttarakhand (5): Cong-0, BJP-5

    West Bengal (42): Cong- 2, BJP- 1, TMC- 24, LEFT- 14, SUCI-0, OTH-1
     
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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    General Elections 2014: Modi wave gaining strength, BJP set to cross 200, says survey

    New Delhi: Narendra Modi-powered Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to register its best ever performance in General Elections 2014, a survey predicted.

    On the other hand, the Congress would be decimated to double digits – its' worst ever performance since Independence – as per the pre-poll survey conducted by a news channel.

    If the elections are to be held now, the BJP will win 202 seats, a significant increase its tally from 116 seats it won in 2009. The Congress tally will drop steeply from 206 in 2009 to 89 now.

    Overall, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by BJP is projected to win 227 seats, falling 45 short of the magic mark of 272 in a house of 543.

    The NDA's projected tally: BJP 202, Shiv Sena 15, Akali Dal 5, Republican Party of India (Athawale) 2, Swabhimani Paksha 1, National Peoples Party (NPP) 1, Haryana Janhit Congress 1 - total 227.

    The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress is expected to win just 101 seats.

    UPA tally breakup: Congress 89, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 5, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) 1, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) 2, Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) 2, National Conference 1, Kerala Congress (Mani) 1 - total 101.

    The BJP is gaining big in states like Uttar Pradesh, where it is projected to win 34 out of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats. The party would also make major gains in Rajasthan (25) and Bihar (40) with win on 21 seats each. Also, the BJP is expected to sweep Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, with win in 24 out of 29 seats in MP.

    In Bihar, Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD, which was written off not long ago, will register an impressive performance and win 12 seats, while the ruling JD(U) under the leadership of Nitish Kumar will be just reduced to 5 seats, the survey said.

    The nation's preferred choice as the next prime minister remains Narendra Modi. The poll survey stated that 59.1 percent people want the Gujarat Chief Minister to take over as PM, only 26.7 percent want the Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi at the helm.

    Delhi's ruling Aam Aadmi Party under the leadership of Arvid Kejriwal is projected to get 7 seats, 3 from Delhi, and one each from Haryana, Maharashtra, Karnataka and one union territory.

    Following is the state-wise break-up of the projected seats tally:

    Arunachal Pradesh: Congress 1, BJP 1. Total 2

    Assam: Congress 7, BJP 5, AUDF 1, BPF 1. Total 14

    Bihar: BJP 21, RJD 12, JD-U 5, LJP 1, Congress 1. Total 40

    Chhattisgarh: BJP 8, Congress 3. Total 11

    Goa: BJP 1, Congress 1. Total 2

    Haryana: BJP 6, Congress 1, INLD 1, Haryana Janhit Congress 1, AAP 1. Total 10

    Himachal Pradesh: BJP 3, Congress 1. Total 4

    Jammu and Kashmir: BJP 2, PDP 2, National Conference 1, Congress 1. Total 6

    Jharkhand: BJP 8, JMM 2, JVM 2, Congress 1, Independent 1. Total 14

    Karnataka: BJP 11, Congress 14, JD-S 2, AAP 1. Total 28

    Kerala: Left Front 9, Congress 7, BJP 1, IUML 2, Kerala Congress (Mani) 1. Total 20

    Madhya Pradesh: BJP 24, Congress 5. Total 29

    Maharashtra: Shiv Sena 15, BJP 15, Congress 8, NCP 5, RPI (Athawale) 2, MNS 1, Swabhimana Paksha 1, AAP 1. Total 48

    Manipur: Congress 1, Others 1. Total 2

    Meghalaya: Congress 1, NPP 1. Total 2

    Mizoram: Congress 1. Total 1

    Nagaland: NPF 1. Total 1

    Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 12, Congress 7, BJP 2. Total 21

    Punjab: Congress 6, Shiromani Akali Dal 5, BJP 2. Total 13

    Rajasthan: BJP 21, Congress 4. Total 25

    Sikkim: Sikkim Democratic Front 1. Total 1

    Tamil Nadu: AIADMK 27, DMK 5, DMDK 2, Congress 1, CPI 1, CPI-M 1, MDMK 1, VCK 1. Total 39.

    Tripura: CPI-M 2. Total 2

    Uttar Pradesh: BJP 34, Samajwadi Party 20, BSP 21, Congress 4, RLD 1. Total 80

    Uttarakhand: BJP 5, Congress 9. Total 5

    West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 24, Left Front 14, Congress 2, BJP 1, Others 1. Total 42

    Delhi: BJP 4, AAP 3, Congress 0. Total 7

    Union Territories: BJP 3, Congress 1, Others 1, AAP 1.
     
  11. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    2014 Lok Sabha polls will see most first-time voters - The Hindu

    Election Commission data show that 2.3 crore people in the 18-19 age bracket have been enrolled to vote, out of a total electorate of 81.5 crore

    This Lok Sabha election is likely to reflect the peak of India’s electoral demographic dividend with 10% of voters likely to be first-time voters, a combination of electoral and demographic data shows. As fertility begins to decline – faster in the south than in the north – this election may mark the highest ever political impact of first-time voters.

    Summary revision data released by the Election Commission on Thursday shows that 2.3 crore 18-19 year-olds have been enrolled to vote, out of a total electorate of 81.5 crore voters. Additionally, The Hindu’s analysis of census data shows that there were 12 crore people aged 15-19 at the time of the 2011 census, making them people who were too young to vote in 2009, but eligible to vote in 2014. These potential first-time voters formed 10 per cent of the population.

    This youth bulge might reflect the peak of India’s ‘demographic dividend’, as fertility declines and India’s population begins to age.

    In 2001, people aged 15-19 were, in comparison, 9.7 per cent of the population. The United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ latest World Population Prospects shows that India’s 15-19 aged cohort will peak in 2015 after which it will begin to decline as a proportion of the population.

    “The southern States reached replacement levels of fertility by 1995, but the northern States still have relatively high fertility. So the peak of the 15-19 age cohort will have already passed in the southern States, but in the northern States, this cohort could be at its peak,” Dr. P. Arokiasamy, demographer and professor in the Department of Development Studies at the Mumbai-based International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), told The Hindu.

    The Election Commission’s data show that the proportion of 18-19 year-olds registered to vote is the highest in Jharkhand (9 per cent of total electors), Chhattisgarh (4.9 per cent) and Rajasthan (4.8 per cent) and the lowest in Himachal Pradesh (1.3 per cent), Maharashtra (1.4 per cent) and Kerala and Karnataka (1.8 per cent).

    This proportion is higher than the difference in voteshare between the party that polled the highest seats and the runner-up in some states including Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh.

    Historically, voter turnout among young voters has been substantially lower than the average turnout. “Since 1996, we have seen that voter turnout among young voters is 5-6 percentage points lower than the average turnout,” Sanjay Kumar, director at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies who leads its National Election Studies, told The Hindu. Moreover, young voters have tended to remain as divided among different political parties as other voters, and without a cohort-specific issue that animates them.

    “Our study at the time of the last Assembly election showed a clear preference among young voters for the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and a slight tilt towards the BJP in other States,” Mr. Kumar said. In their January national poll, the shift towards the BJP was even more pronounced and included a surge among rural voters, while the BJP had traditionally been relatively popular among urban young voters, Mr. Kumar said.
     
  12. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    2014 Lok Sabha Elections: Survey predicts 227 seats for NDA, poor show by Congress - daily.bhaskar.com

    New Delhi: The BJP-led NDA is projected to get 227 seats in the coming Lok Sabha polls, while the Congress will be reduced to 84, according to an opinion poll.
    The survey, conducted by India TV, Times Now and CVoter, projects the worst-ever performance by the Congress-led UPA, a better show by regional parties such as the YSR Congress, the Trinamool Congress and the AIADMK, and the emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party.

    According to the projection, the BJP alone will get 202 out of the total 543 seats. The Congress is projected to get only 84 — 117 less than its 2009 tally.

    While the poll projects 217-237 seats to the NDA, it gives only 91-111 to the UPA.

    The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is projected to get 7 seats in its maiden Lok Sabha battle.

    The survey shows Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool getting 24 seats — five more than its 2009 position.

    Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK is projected to emerge as the top non-UPA, non-NDA party with 27 seats. Its existing strength in the Lok Sabha is 9.

    The Left Front is projected to improve its position from the present 24 to 27. Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party is projected to get 20 seats — three less than its existing strength. Mayawati’s BSP is projected to retain its 2009 strength — 21 — in the 16th Lok Sabha. The survey gives the Jaganmohan Reddy-headed YSR Congress 13 seats.

    A possible third alternative, consisting of 16 parties including the Left Front and the AIADMK, is projected to get 128 seats.

    A possible fourth front consisting of 15 regional forces including the Trinamool, the BSP, the TRS and the YSR Congress is projected to get 87 seats. According to a release, the CVoter study was based on a national representative sample of 14,142 randomly selected respondents across all 28 States during January 15-February 8.
     
  13. Vishwarupa

    Vishwarupa Senior Member Senior Member

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    63 per cent Indians favour BJP in polls, says US survey

    Washington: More than three-fifths of Indian voters favour the opposition BJP in the upcoming general elections as against less than one-fifth for the ruling Congress, a major American survey released yesterday said.

    "With the Indian parliamentary elections just weeks away, the Indian public, by a margin of more than three-to-one, would prefer the Hindu-nationalist opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to lead the next Indian government rather than the Indian National Congress (INC), which heads the current left-of-centre governing coalition," Pew Research said.

    While the survey in which BJP is preferred by 63 per cent of the respondents against 19 per cent for the ruling Congress does not project the number of seats the two parties would get in the polls, the survey said Narendra Modi, the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, is more popular than the putative Congress candidate Rahul Gandhi.

    The Pew Research Centre survey was conducted between December 7, 2013 and January 12, 2014 and included face-to-face interviews with 2,464 randomly selected adults, in states and territories that are home to roughly 91 per cent of the Indian population.

    The margin of error is 3.8 per cent.

    According to the survey, just 29 per cent of Indians are satisfied with the way things are going in India today; 70 per cent are dissatisfied.

    "More than six-in-ten Indians (63 per cent) prefer the BJP to lead the next Indian national government. Just two-in-ten (19 per cent) pick the Indian National Congress. Other parties have the support of 12 per cent of the public. BJP backing is consistent across age groups. And support is almost equal between rural (64 per cent) and urban (60 per cent) Indians," the survey showed.

    Northern states Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and Delhi which together are home to more than 400 million people, give the BJP its highest level of support, with 74 per cent saying they want it to lead the next government.

    "The party's weakest backing (54 per cent) is in the western states of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat (led by Modi as chief minister). Congress' strongest regional support (30 per cent) is in the eastern states of Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand, among India's poorest areas and home to 270 million people," Pew said.

    A majority says the BJP (58 per cent) is likely to be more successful than the Congress (20 per cent) in creating employment opportunities in the future.

    "A similar proportion of the Indian public (56 per cent) say BJP would do a better job than Congress (20 per cent) in reducing terrorism. There is equal belief (56 per cent) that the BJP will do more to combat corruption. Only 17 per cent say Congress would do a better job dealing with this issue," Pew said.

    63 per cent Indians favour BJP in polls, says US survey | NDTV.com
     
  14. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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  15. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    'Indians clamour for change in Lok Sabha elections' - Hindustan Times

    The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to trounce the ruling Congress party in upcoming elections with 70% of voters unhappy with the state of the country, a poll showed on Wednesday.

    63% of voters surveyed by the US-based Pew Research Center said they wanted BJP to lead the next government against 19% who opted for outgoing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Congress.

    And while 78% said they had a favourable opinion of the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, just 50% said the same of Rahul Gandhi, who is Congress's election frontman.

    Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, is a hugely divisive figure.

    He is despised by many Muslims and liberals after his state in 2002 witnessed some of the worst communal violence since independence in 1947. But he is popular with middle-class voters who admire his economic stewardship.

    The 43-year-old Gandhi has struggled to convince voters that he has the experience or the desire to follow in the footsteps of his father, grandmother and great-grandfather, who all served as prime minister.

    Congress, which has dominated Indian politics since independence, has seen its rating nosedive as it struggles to reverse a slowdown in economic growth, now at its lowest in a decade, and appease anger over corruption.

    The survey found that just 29% of Indians were satisfied with the country's current situation while 70% were dissatisfied, a trend which cut across various demographic groups.

    The survey did not specifically ask about voting intentions. Most analysts predict that the BJP will win the largest number of the 543 seats up for grabs but fall short of an overall majority.

    It would then have to forge alliances with smaller regional parties. No party has won an overall majority since 1989.

    The survey did however say that "dissatisfaction with recent developments in India is remarkably widespread" and that backing for the BJP is roughly equal in both rural and urban areas.

    A total of 2,464 people were interviewed for the survey, which has a 3.8% margin of error.
     
  16. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: 63 per cent Indians favour BJP in polls, says US survey

    Read this article in the morning. I would definitely like to see congress out of the governing seats.
     
  17. A chauhan

    A chauhan "अहिंसा परमो धर्मः धर्म हिंसा तथैव च: l" Senior Member

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    Re: 63 per cent Indians favour BJP in polls, says US survey

    Now this can not be a paid survey!
     
  18. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    Questions remain if Arvind Kejriwal will contest Lok Sabha polls - The Times of India

    NEW DELHI: AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal's announcement that party legislators will not be considered for the parliamentary elections set off speculation on his own candidature for the Lok Sabha polls. While Kejriwal has consistently said that no decision was taken on whether he will fight LS elections, there has been considerable pressure from the party and outside to contest.

    "We will not give ticket to any legislator for the Lok Sabha elections," Kejriwal said. He was speaking in response to a question on MLA Rakhi Birla's possible candidature for north—west Delhi. Though Birla's name has not been formally announced, several party members have been sitting on an indefinite hunger strike against her nomination.

    Party sources said the issue was discussed in the political affairs committee on Wednesday. "There is no doubt that she is a strong candidate but we need people for Delhi also," a source said. The party will contest all 70 Delhi assembly seats whenever state elections are announced and would like to retain strong candidates for that.

    Kejriwal has expressed interest in staying committed to Delhi rather than contest LS polls though there are chances that he may fight against BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi if the CM contests from outside Gujarat. However, there is no clarity yet on where Modi will contest from and AAP is keeping its cards close to its chest for now.

    AAP made its debut with 28 seats in the Delhi assembly elections. It ran the city government for 49 days with outside support of the Congress, but the government resigned on the issue of Jan Lokpal bill. The party has subsequently challenged the imposition of President's rule in Delhi and keeping the assembly in suspended animation. If its contention that keeping the assembly in suspended animation will encourage horse—trading is upheld, the party will have to gear up both for Delhi and LS polls.
     
  19. aragorn

    aragorn Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: 63 per cent Indians favour BJP in polls, says US survey

    Now AAPtard and ConTards will claim this is also a paid survey
     
  20. Voldemort

    Voldemort Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    There's a federal front as well. And AAP forming a govt is a bit too ambitious.
     
  21. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Re: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections - Who would you like to see forming a gov

    Federal front is nothing but Third Front!

    A related article...

    Kiran Batni's Blog : Third or Federal Front must develop a diversity-centric ideology

    It's fashionable to make fun of political parties other than the Congress and the BJP. If you're not doing it, you're likely to be accused of stunted cerebral growth. Social media trolls throw out such accusations seemingly for a living, but even the serious types are guilty of it. For those who put their hand in the fire for Rahul Gandhi or Narendra Modi, ridicule for non-Congress and non-BJP parties comes naturally. But make no mistake: even those who'd like to stay equidistant from the Congress and the BJP are not free from this sort of thinking.

    The AAP, which is supposed to be the number one anti-establishment party, and which likes to drag individuals from both the Congress and the BJP into corruption allegations, is also party to this ridicule. The way in which Arvind Kejriwal dismissed and made fun of state leaders like J Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee, Deve Gowda, etc., in his recent interview to Barkha Dutt of NDTV, stinks of high-handedness, arrogance and elitism. But more importantly, it stinks of the Idea of an India run completely from New Delhi, the 'cleanliness' of those running it notwithstanding.

    But why this attitude towards non-Congress and non-BJP parties? The answer is that these parties haven't proved that they're capable of providing a stable government at the Centre. There is truth in this claim, but first, let us examine what this truth illustrates. What does it mean when parties which are so popular in the states cannot work out a partnership and form the Central Government? It means that there is no popular Central Government in the first place. It means that the BJP and the Congress, which claim to provide stability at the Centre, are providing a stability that is unpopular in the first place. The people don't want this stability but the electoral system, and the patriotic horse-trading that follows, can nevertheless manufacture it. That's what it means in the ultimate analysis.

    But it is not impossible for these popular state parties to actually work out a lasting partnership and come up with a stable and popular coalition. The Third Front or the Federal Front is currently only a loose coalition seeking power at the Centre. But if they work on it with some seriousness, they should be able to come up with a convincing ideology with which they can go to the people, form a single party if need be, and win the Lok Sabha elections. But what sort of ideology can accomplish these things? It is too early to spell out the details but we can conclude, once and for all, that that ideology must be centered on India's diversity, predominantly linguistic diversity. The guardians of unity have abused India for so long, imposed the uniformity of death for so long, and neglected India's languages for so long, that it's time for diversity to become the new political mantra in India.
     

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