2012, will nightmare come true?

Discussion in 'International Politics' started by kickok1975, Nov 11, 2011.

  1. kickok1975

    kickok1975 Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Next year could be huge for our planet earth. The European debt crisis could be explode which will drag world economy into depression; The Iran Nuclear bomb program may lead to an ugly Middle-East war (potentially a nuclear war) and worldwide energy crisis; Most major countries will have elections which are never being so intense.
    There are so many uncertainties hanging on people’s head. Could 2012 be a game changing year for our planet earth?
     
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  3. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    UBS: Here Are The 19 Countries Most Likely To Default

    UBS: Here Are The 19 Countries Most Likely To Default

    Mamta Badkar | Nov. 9, 2011, 10:58 AM


    Italy is being touted as the country that is too big to save. And with the ECB legally prevented from being a lender of last resort, an Italian debt restructuring is inevitable, according to Nouriel Roubini.Italian 10-year yields have exploded over 7% and clearing house LCH.Clearnet SA has raised the cost of trading Italian debt.

    With the the turmoil in Italy, Ireland is having a harder time convincing markets and investors that it could escape contagion. Meanwhile, Greece is still waiting on a new government.

    As the European debt crisis continues, we drew on UBS analyst Andrew Cates' aggregate balance sheet risk index to provide a snapshot of the financial fragility of countries that look most likely to default. The factors that help determine balance sheet risk include high cumulative credit outstanding, high banking sector leverage as measured by loan-deposit ratios, and substantial public sector debt as a percentage of GDP.

    Note: All data is for 2010. The Balance Sheet Risk index depends on several indicators that include public sector debt as a percent of GDP; loan to deposit ratio (which measures of banking sector stress); and credit to GDP ratio (which measures credit market stress). Credit market is the broader market through which companies try to raise funds through debt sales. It also includes indicators of external fragility like current account balance to GDP ratio and external debt to GDP ratio among others.



    #19 U.S.

    [​IMG]
    Credit to GDP ratio: 5.1%Loan deposit ratio: 147%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 92.7%
    Total score: 4.8
    Source: UBS


    #18 Poland

    [​IMG]
    Image: AP

    Credit to GDP ratio: 24.6%Loan deposit ratio: 106.3%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 54.2%
    Total score: 4.8
    Source: UBS


    #17 Romania

    [​IMG]
    Image: AP

    Credit to GDP ratio: 21.2%Loan deposit ratio: 113.3%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 35.3%
    Total score: 5.1
    Source: UBS


    #16 Norway

    [​IMG]
    Image: ingerson_sharon on flickr

    Credit to GDP ratio: 24.8%Loan deposit ratio: 214.9%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 54.3%
    Total score: 5.1
    Source: UBS


    #15 Canada

    [​IMG]
    Image: s.yume via Flickr

    Credit to GDP ratio: 23.4%Loan deposit ratio: 199.3%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 81.7%
    Total score: 5.1
    Source: UBS


    #14 Italy

    [​IMG]
    Image: adolfo barandiaran on flickr

    Credit to GDP ratio: 25.3%Loan deposit ratio: 165.2%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 118.4%
    Total score: 5.2
    Source: UBS


    #13 Finland

    [​IMG]
    Credit to GDP ratio: 19.9%Loan deposit ratio: 156.4%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 50%
    Total score: 5.3
    Source: UBS


    #12 Bulgaria

    [​IMG]
    Credit to GDP ratio: 36%Loan deposit ratio: 102.6%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 16.6%
    Total score: 5.3
    Source: UBS


    #11 Netherlands

    [​IMG]
    Image: AP Images

    Credit to GDP ratio: 15.7%Loan deposit ratio: 158.7%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 66%
    Total score: 5.4
    Source: UBS


    #10 Sweden

    [​IMG]
    Image: ulrich_berkner via flickr

    Credit to GDP ratio: 27.3%Loan deposit ratio: 237.6%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 41.7%
    Total score:
    Source: UBS


    #9 Belgium

    [​IMG]
    Image: AP Images

    Credit to GDP ratio: 22%Loan deposit ratio: 98.1%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 100.2%
    Total score: 5.5
    Source: UBS


    #8 France

    [​IMG]
    Image: AP Images

    Credit to GDP ratio: 19.4%Loan deposit ratio: 163.6%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 84.2%
    Total score: 5.5
    Source: UBS


    #7 Denmark

    [​IMG]
    Image: AP Images

    Credit to GDP ratio: 44.1%Loan deposit ratio: 346.1%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 44.2%
    Total score: 5.6
    Source: UBS


    #6 Hungary

    [​IMG]
    Image: AP

    Credit to GDP ratio: 21%Loan deposit ratio: 123.6%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 85.3%
    Total score: 5.8
    Source: UBS


    #5 UK

    [​IMG]
    Credit to GDP ratio: 35.2%Loan deposit ratio: 150.5%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 76.7%
    Total score: 6
    Source: UBS


    #4 Greece

    [​IMG]
    Image: AP

    Credit to GDP ratio: 55.7%Loan deposit ratio: 117.7%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 130.2%
    Total score: 6.1
    Source: UBS


    #3 Spain

    [​IMG]
    Image: AP

    Credit to GDP ratio: 66%Loan deposit ratio: 223%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 63.5%
    Total score: 6.3
    Source: UBS


    #2 Portugal

    [​IMG]
    Image: AP

    Credit to GDP ratio: 53.6%Loan deposit ratio: 189.2%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 83.1%
    Total score: 7
    Source: UBS


    #1 Ireland

    [​IMG]
    Image: AP Images

    Credit to GDP ratio: 56.1%Loan deposit ratio: 187.3%
    Public sector debt as a percent of GDP: 99.4%
    Total score: 7.6
    Source: UBS


    Now here's who is praying that Italy doesn't default...

    [​IMG]
    REFRESHER: Here's Who's Going To Get Crushed If Italy Goes Bust >








    Read more: UBS: Here Are The 19 Countries Most Likely To Default
     
  4. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Duh!! Reading the thread title i thought you were talking of the doomsday scenario of 2012 where the world will come to an end. All other crises will not matter if that comes to be true :D
     
  5. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    Yeah I thought the same ... :p
    Yusuf that exposes our subconscious a little, doesn't it?

    Regards,
    Virendra
     
  6. civfanatic

    civfanatic Retired Moderator

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    Imagine all the chaos on the night before 21 December, 2012. It will be Y2K all over again.
     
  7. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Bah!! Such threads give rich fodder for the 2012 doomsday theorists.

    Now, just wait for the theories saying "this is what the prophesy meant, the world as we know it will cease to exist". :frusty:
     
  8. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    If God would appear and tell me yes its true i have timed the worlds doom on 22nd Dec 2012, i would just go home pack my bags with my family and see the world, do what i want instead of slogging my butt and worrying about the exchange price of dollar and price of steel and keep worrying day in day out. But then, if that is my mentality, then God may actually make a sucker out of me and nothing will happen and next thing i know is that i have a collapsed business and debt to handle!!!

    Let me get back to work. Whats the price of dollar today :D?
     

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