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Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

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    Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    Let's use this thread to track all events related to the Karnataka Assembly elections 2013

    ========

    Karnataka Assembly polls on May 5, counting on May 8

    New Delhi: Assembly elections in Karnataka will be held on May 5, the Election Commission announced today. Election Commissioner VS Sampath today said it will be a single-phase election and the counting of votes would take place on May 8.

    The elections for the 14th Karnataka Assembly is likely to be a three-way contest between the ruling BJP, the Congress, and the JD(S). The Congress heads to the polls fresh from its thumping victory in the recently concluded urban local body elections. The Congress won 1909 of the 4976 wards, while the BJP and the Janata Dal(S) both secured 906 seats each. The results were a major blow to the BJP, which has usually had a strong showing in urban areas.

    Former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa has been claiming that his newly formed Karnataka Janata Party or KJP would act as a spoiler for the BJP. Mr Yeddyurappa, who quit the BJP after 40 years in December 2012 and launched the KJP, would have been disappointed with the urban body election results, with his party putting up a poor show.



    The KJP won only 272 seats. But the former Chief Minister claims the Assembly polls will be a different cup of tea and that he would be able to seriously dent the BJP's chances of returning to power. The Congress is hoping to gain from the split in votes between the BJP and KJP.

    The BJP enjoys a fragile majority in the present Assembly after 14 legislators loyal to Mr Yeddyurappa resigned in February to join his KJP. The current effective strength of the Assembly is 223; the BJP has 104 MLAs, the Congress and JD(S) combined have 97, and there are 7 independents.

    The configuration of the present Assembly is different from the one voted into power in 2008. The BJP's Operation Lotus in Karnataka, at the beginning of its term, saw legislators from the Congress and the JD(S) being lured to the BJP - with financial incentives according to the BJP's detractors.

    This strengthened the BJP's position in the state Assembly, which had won the elections with a narrow margin. Life came a full circle for the BJP with some of its legislators leaving the party and aligning themselves with Mr Yeddyurappa just ahead of the May elections. With the recent surge in the fortunes of the Congress, party-hopping may only increase in the weeks ahead of the elections.

    Karnataka Assembly polls on May 5, counting on May 8 | NDTV.com


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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    In contrarian Karnataka, BJP needs to maximise seats

    karnataka map 20130320


    Karnataka is interestingly poised at the electoral altar in the post UPA-scam-bad-governance era, for it is made up of a historically contrarian electoral DNA. It is a State that has always gone against the national wind. For instance, when Indira’s Congress was down and out, Karnataka stood as the lone outpost for Mrs Gandhi (in fact, she even entered the Parliament by winning Chikkamaglur LS seat). Once again, when Rajiv’s Congress swept India in 1985, Karnataka elected a Hegde-led Janata Government. Even in 1989, when India punished Rajiv Gandhi for Bofors and for failing to deliver on governance, Karnataka rewarded the Congress. The list is endless, suffice it to say that (since emergency) no party that has ever won Karnataka has ruled Delhi or even the other way round.

    History’s uncanny ability to repeat itself, whether as a farce or as a tragedy, is limitless. Karnataka, it seems, is the favourite child of this repetitive history. Today, as the whole of India is burning with a desire to defeat Congress, Karnataka has possibly made up her mind to bless the scam-tainted party of the Gandhi family. The recently concluded urban local body polls give us enough indications towards a Congress revival in the State.

    At the very outset, it must be stated in clear terms that if Congress wins Karnataka, the one and only reason for such a victory would be BJP’s internal squabbles and splintering of votes. Dilli-based analysts may paint the Congress victory as per their whims and fancies. Some may suggest it as a result of Rahul’s ‘untiring work’. Some others may see a national revival of Congress in the Karnataka results. A cynical few might suggest that Congress’s corruption doesn’t matter electorally. The adventurous anti-NaMO brigade might question Modi’s ability to win elections outside Gujarat (as if he was the CM of Karnataka). A few analytical types might even suggest that BJP Government of the State lacked in governance and BSY’s ‘corruption’ hurt the party. All of this would be nothing but bogus post-facto justification by Dilli-centric ‘nowhere journalism’.

    It seems that the BJP has decided to lose Karnataka this time around. Some friends in the Sangh even suggest that a loss in Karnataka is good for the party. The patriarch probably believes that sacrificing corrupt Karnataka is ideally suited for an ideologically elegant ‘party with a difference’. All of this is apparatchik talk that has no ground relevance, but it gives us an insight as to how the right too lives in an ivory tower of its own just like Dilli journalism. Sadly, it is Karnataka that is getting squandered in between the two ivory towers.

    Some faithful rightists might even argue that BJP may still be revived and resuscitated in this southern gateway, but frankly, the chances of such a revival look bleak. If the urban local body polls are any indication, then possibly even a hung Assembly looks like a distant possibility; Congress’s victory is increasingly appearing to be the only logical outcome for Karnataka.

    As for the BJP, its best case scenario would be to have a hung Assembly like in 2004; an outright victory for the party is simply impossible in the electoral arithmetic of this southern State. Even in 2008, when the saffron party performed at the optimum level, it could only win 110 seats in an Assembly of 224 (3 short of a simple majority). Today, after many top leaders have left the party and anti-incumbency has taken its toll, a repeat of 2009 looks almost impossible. Thus BJP’s only logical strategy could be to maximise its seats and hope to share power in case of a hung Assembly. Strangely though, BJP is not trying to do even this bare-minimum at this point of time.

    The six-pronged electoral analysis based on ULB polls

    The recent urban local body polls can be dismissed as a purely local poll with no ramifications for the State elections. On the other hand, these ULB elections can be used as a dip test. In fact, this was the best possible opinion poll that any State could have had on the eve of the State elections. A sample size of 85 lakh voters is impossible to replicate!

    Just like any other opinion polls, these ULB elections should also be taken with enough caution. Yet, there are some important pointers that have emerged out of the ULB exercise:

    1. Usually, Congress does well in the ULB polls due to its widespread base and larger number of stronger contestants at the local level. This doesn’t get replicated in the Assembly polls, as we have seen in the past, most recently in 2008.

    2. Not withstanding Congress’s inherent advantage, the party’s performance this time in ULB polls of Karnataka show some traction, which might eventually lead to a wave like situation and a big victory by the time Assembly elections are held.

    3. Ruling parties usually tend to perform a lot better than opposition parties in ULB polls because of the ability of ruling party to give out goodies to contestants and voters alike. By this yardstick, BJP’s performance has been a let-down.

    4. BSY’s KJP has hurt BJP more than the party bosses had expected, but the former’s performance has not enthused BSY & his camp either, as he was expecting at least double the tally that he got (about 500 total seats). So it is an unsatisfactory result for both parties.

    5. Despite bad Press, anti-incumbency, multiple splits in the party and many top leaders deserting it, BJP has managed to win as many seats as JDS. By this yardstick, the party should be happy that its presence in the State cannot yet be written off.

    6. JDS has remained static and is unlikely to improve its tally in the near future. It’s essentially old-Mysore-base is not showing any signs of expanding, not withstanding some victories in ULB polls of Hyderabad-Karnataka. The party is in danger of disintegrating if it goes powerless for another term.

    No elections in India are uniform in nature, not even State elections. India’s national elections have, for long, been termed as ‘many State verdicts put together’. Karnataka is also a classic case of many sub-divisional elections. The State can be divided into 6 electoral pockets based on similarity of voting patterns. We will try and analyse one of those divisions today.

    Hyderabad-Karnataka: Advantage Congress & lost opportunity for the BJP

    It was in this region that BSY had built BJP’s base the most. Yeddyurappa had rightly identified this Congress bastion and had really concentrated his efforts in this region for almost a decade (he even has familial ties with this region — his daughter-in-law hails from here, thereby increasing his clout). Even in the last 5 years, when BJP was in power, this region was given due importance. It was BSY who had attracted a large number of former Janata leaders (even some former Congressmen) in this region, and had given them enough political relevance in the party. Sadly, most of these strong sub-regional leaders have left the party with BSY, and BJP is almost floating on thin ice in these 5 districts.

    Urban Local Body polls: March 2013

    BJP Congress JDS KJP Others
    Gulbarga 28 82 36 46 21
    Bidar 22 53 36 23 15
    Raichur 28 63 34 6 23
    Koppal 25 36 25 0 10
    Yadgir 5 50 12 7 24
    Assembly Election: May 2008

    BJP Congress JDS KJP Others
    Gulbarga 5 4 1 – 0
    Bidar 2 3 1 – 0
    Raichur 2 3 2 – 0
    Koppal 2 1 1 – 1
    Yadgir 1 3 0 – 0
    Lok Sabha Polls: May 2009

    BJP Congress JDS KJP Others
    Gulbarga 4 6 0 – 0
    Bidar 2 4 0 – 0
    Raichur 6 1 0 – 0
    Koppal 3 1 1 – 0
    Yadgir 1 3 0 – 0
    *Data Source: Election Commission of India & Karnataka Election Commission

    [Administratively, Bellary is also part of Hyderabad-Karnataka, but politically, culturally, emotionally & electorally, the district finds resonance with central Karnataka, therefore it is omitted from the above list.]

    This region has always been a stronghold of the Congress, but BJP had made decent inroads in the last Assembly and Lok Sabha polls. All of BJP’s gains have been reversed now by the exit of BSY. What is more, in three out of five districts of Hyderabad-Karnataka, KJP’s tally is higher than that of BJP in the ULB polls! This kind of form might get replicated in the upcoming Assembly poll. In fact, KJP has only underperformed in this region in ULB polls due to lack of organizational strength.

    These five districts account for 32 Assembly segments and it is a fact today that BJP doesn’t even have candidates to field, in more than half of these seats! Such has been the stunning impact of BSY on this national party. Almost all the stalwarts of the BJP in this region have jumped ship to follow their leader BSY. This could be the region that could give KJP its highest tally in the State. Strategists working for BSY predict that the KJP’s tally may go into double digits in this region alone!

    Congress has its task cut out in this region, it has to maximise its gains and win as many seats as possible if it wants to form the next Government in the State. As of today, Congress is facing very little opposition from any party, and local Congress leaders believe that Yeddyurappa’s ragtag outfit KJP is the only opposition party that Congress has to worry about. JDS is almost non-existent here, except for two or three assembly segments (despite of a better than expected performance in ULB polls).

    Caste calculus and electoral issues

    The caste mix of this region is unique in the whole State. Apart from Veerashaivas (Lingayats), SCs, STs, Banjaras & Nayaks are the important castes here. Muslim presence is concentrated in certain pockets. Veerashaivas, Banjaras & Nayaks formed the bedrock of BJP’s rise in Hyderabad-Karnataka, while Muslims, STs & the right-wing of SCs have been the Congress’ core vote base. BSY-led BJP’s big breakthrough in 2008-09 was that the party was able to attract a section of SC vote (mainly the left-wing and other SCs) away from the Congress by building local level leaders like Sunil Vallyapur, Prabhu Chavan, Valmiki Nayak, Revu Nayak Belamgi etc.

    This time Veerashaivas & Banjaras are expected to shift their loyalties from BJP to KJP, while Naik vote may get split between Congress and BSR Congress of Sriramulu (as seen in the ULB polls). Since the entire SC vote; including right, left & most of other SCs, may largely go back to Congress, all that the party has to do is keep its core vote intact and accrue the indirect benefit of split in opposition vote-caste matrix.

    Apart from caste, the other aspect that should ideally make an impact on the voters here are bread and butter issues. As far as governance issues are concerned, people in this region rate the BJP Government either neutrally or positively. There are not many negatives for the ruling party in this region, but then, there is also nothing overwhelmingly positive to write home about.

    Article 371 and the special status for this most backward region is a potentially emotive issue in this region, but hasn’t taken off like the Telengana fire in the neighbouring state of Andhra Pradesh. Even on this issue, BSY’s KJP & Congress are ahead of the curve while BJP is lagging behind.

    In conclusion, this region should see a direct fight between Congress and KJP in many seats. The relatively better performance of JDS in ULB polls needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, for the party still has organisational strength of the erstwhile Janata base but lacks in local level leadership to win Assembly elections. BJP has been reduced to a fringe player in this region.

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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    karnatakapolls

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    BJP MLA Dr Hemchandra Sagar from my area should manage to retain his seat.
    I am from the North East, I am from the North, I am from the West, I am from the South, I am from the East. I am a Hindu, I am a Muslim, I am a Christian, I am a Sikh. I am an INDIAN

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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    @Yusuf chickpete should be bjp's afterall its a small, medium traders area. But there was some talk that hemachandra sagar may join with Yeddyurappa. Don't know the latest update on this.

    @Coalmine what is the source of the article??

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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by nrupatunga View Post
    @Yusuf chickpete should be bjp's afterall its a small, medium traders area. But there was some talk that hemachandra sagar may join with Yeddyurappa. Don't know the latest update on this.

    @Coalmine what is the source of the article??
    Yeah and his nearest competitor should be a JD candidate and not Cong. Frankly I don't even remember who was the Cong or JD candidate last time. Not worth remembering. Was it Devraj from Cong?
    I am from the North East, I am from the North, I am from the West, I am from the South, I am from the East. I am a Hindu, I am a Muslim, I am a Christian, I am a Sikh. I am an INDIAN

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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    @Yusuf i think RV Devraj would contest from chamrajpete on congress ticket and not chickpete. But the challenge could be from former chickpete MLA & also current Bengaluru central MP PC Mohan i.e. infighting within bjp

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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    Sorry i forgot to put the source. Its as usual niti central
    In contrarian Karnataka, BJP needs to maximise seats | Niti Central

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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    Don't know if bjp will ever learn, its hellbent on shooting itself. There are lot of rumours going on that leader of Bsr-Congress (reddy&co) met jagadish shettar yesterday after dates were announced. If they take back or get into alliance with bsr congress, then bjp will loose karnataka if not soon but slowly for sure. Vinasha kaale vipareeti buddhi is apt for bjp.

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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by nrupatunga View Post
    Vinasha kaale vipareeti buddhi is apt for bjp.
    Not bad Hindi. You a Kanndiga??
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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Yusuf View Post
    Not bad Hindi. You a Kanndiga??
    Haan nanu kannadiga. But it's not hindi it's sanskrit(?) For me this is kannada only. Anyone knowing kannada will say vinasha, kaal, vipareeta, buddhi are all kannada words only

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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by nrupatunga View Post
    Haan nanu kannadiga. But it's not hindi it's sanskrit(?) For me this is kannada only. Anyone knowing kannada will say vinasha, kaal, vipareeta, buddhi are all kannada words only
    @Yusuf
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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    IMO, Yeddi is a product of the anti BJP media, and can be discounted like a hot air. Contest again 3 way, Cong, JDS, BJP. Who knows BJP might get sympathy vote too.

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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    @GPM How/Why would bjp get sympathy vote? Please let us know.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Prahalad joshi has been appointed bjp state chief. I could not understand the funda behind it. Just before elections, why would any party choose a chief who is in no way enabling the cadre (leave alone common voter actually how many people in the party know him outside his district). Also he is from a community (brahmin) who have very very less if not zero influence on state politics. I am not sure as to why is RSS micromanaging the party in every decision. Of the two contenders for post atleast Sadananda gowda was a better choice than joshi, as he belongs to dominant okkaliga community. Atleast politically rss is doing many things to undo bjp in karnataka.

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    Re: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2013

    Pralhad Joshi appointed Karnataka BJP president


    He now has the task of leading the party in Assembly polls

    Ending months of speculation, the Bharatiya Janata Party central leadership on Thursday appointed Dharwad MP Pralhad Joshi as president of the party’s Karnataka unit.

    The announcement regarding the appointment of the 50-year-old Mr. Joshi, who is presently State party general secretary, was made in Delhi by BJP national president Rajnath Singh.

    The appointment came about after the incumbent, Deputy Chief Minister K. S. Eshwarappa, resigned as State party president soon after the completion of polling for the urban local bodies on March 7 in tune with the party’s “one man, one post” norm.

    The contenders

    There were several contenders for the post including Mr. Joshi, Dakshina Kannada MP Nalin Kumar Kateel, the former Chief Minister D.V. Sadananda Gowda and Minister Govind Karjol. But the choice had finally narrowed down to Mr. Joshi and continuation of Mr. Eshwarappa till the Assembly polls.

    However, the political balance tilted in favour of Mr. Joshi due to various reasons, including his proximity to Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar as well as party national general secretary Ananth Kumar. Mr. Joshi, a second-time MP, hails from the Chief Minister’s home district of Dharwad.

    The soft-spoken Mr. Joshi has an unenviable task of heading the ruling party, — which is struggling to retain its hold as it is battered by not only infighting, desertions by leaders and allegations of corruption involving its ministers, but also political instability that came in the way of delivering good governance — just before the Assembly polls.

    BJP sources said that the party organisation had involved the main contenders for the presidential post, including Mr. Joshi, in all its decision-making process in the last few months so that they do not require much time to get a grip over the organisational network. In fact, the party had commenced its poll campaign in the form of district-level conventions from Thursday even before the appointment of a full-fledged State president.

    Organisational polls

    According to sources, the party would hold organisational election for the State president’s post some time after the Assembly elections. Mr. Joshi’s appointment is expected to be ratified in these organisational elections so that he would get a full term of three years.

    By choosing a young leader with a strong organisational background for the top post, the party has sent a message that it is keen on nurturing new leadership with a long-term vision at a time when some of its senior leaders are facing various allegations and the party is witnessing desertions by MLAs.

    Mr. Joshi, who has RSS background, was in the forefront of several campaigns by the party in north Karnataka including the Idgah struggle and location of south-western railway headquarters at Hubli.

    Pralhad Joshi appointed Karnataka BJP president - The Hindu
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