Russia, America and the New Cold War

asianobserve

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@asianobserve, the people who are watching Russia and Ukraine since early nineties very much expected the kind of conflict that is occurring today.

Nothing happened suddenly.

I have said this before and I say it again the Ukrainian events have caught Russians by surprise. These events were expected but the timing was unexpected.

Yes I agree that Russian side was unprepared.

This is the story of conflicts. Normally one side is prepared and springs a surprise on the other.

I agree that Russia has taken a huge loss due to its lack of preparation.

We shall see how the conflict progresses. My view is that the West has started to lose despite its initial spectacular success. The reason is West is relying more on hyperbole rather that action on the ground.
Russian woes are just starting. All indications point that Putin is not backing off Eastern Ukraine and close to impossible in Crimea. So Russia and the West are in for a long and bumpy ride.

The West, Europe in particular, will feel the pinch from Russian sanctions but in time their companies will move on to new markets or expand on existing markets.
 
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jouni

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If the west is declining, you might as well enjoy while it lasts: I am going to Russia for a weekend. Just looked at the Ruble and it is 59 to one Euro, half a year ago it was 43... In Murmansk area beer 1,70 Euro ( in Finland 6 Euro ), one liter of gasoline 0,66 cents ( in Finland 1,6 Euros )... Happy weekend!
 

sgarg

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@jouni, so you are going to Russia to fill your tank (yours and your car). Happy weekend to you!
 
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pmaitra

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If the west is declining, you might as well enjoy while it lasts: I am going to Russia for a weekend. Just looked at the Ruble and it is 59 to one Euro, half a year ago it was 43... In Murmansk area beer 1,70 Euro ( in Finland 6 Euro ), one liter of gasoline 0,66 cents ( in Finland 1,6 Euros )... Happy weekend!
Hey I have done this a few times too. Just drive into South Carolina, fill up your tank, and return. :lol:

I guess having several times more expensive fuel in Finland helps boost its GDP figures, but at the end of the day, it is just the same amount of tangible goods that are being traded.
 

Sylex21

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Re: Cold War 2.0: A collection of alarming indications so far

Due to the Crimea issue, tensions have temporarily been inflamed with Russia, but they are more likely to settle down then to heat up. The article seems to focus on Russia vs the West, but I think a Cold War 2.0 in which it is the USA vs China is much more likely in the next 15-30 years.
 

Akim

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If the west is declining, you might as well enjoy while it lasts: I am going to Russia for a weekend. Just looked at the Ruble and it is 59 to one Euro, half a year ago it was 43... In Murmansk area beer 1,70 Euro ( in Finland 6 Euro ), one liter of gasoline 0,66 cents ( in Finland 1,6 Euros )... Happy weekend!

 
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prohumanity

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Some people might have this delusional thinking that by creating chaos around Russia ,they can subjugate and suppress Russian people and their patriotic spirit...but..it's not going to succeed. Russian are brave, patriotic and strong people with a sense of justice. Such people can be temporarily suppressed but they will rebound and rise again soon. Russia is morally right in creating a just, multi-polar world order and I predict that Multi-polar world order is inevitable . No super power can dictate terms for much longer. As for miliatry strenghth, Russia, China, India, Brazil and many other nations are catching up very fast with the narcissistic western nations and soon will be formidable and strong that they won't be suppressed. We are on the path of multi-polar, just world order each day and that bodes well for our entire human family. The rulers of current superpower is drunk with arrogance and evil and have this delusion that they can enslave the world with military force but it will their last hurrah and end is near for their narcissistic pipe dreams. For the wellbing of human family, this evil, arrogant superpower need to be taught humility and mutual respect.
 

sgarg

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Russia is playing smart in Ukraine. There is no military rule in Crimea or Donetsk imposed from Moscow. The local people are in control. The local political processes are not overruled from Moscow. While Moscow supplies these regions, it behaves like a benevolent big brother rather than a dictator.

Russia is slowly acquiring the qualities of a durable State that is likely to attract people who can build a great society.

Europeans dislike for Russians will cause harm to Europeans rather than vice-versa.
 

Ray

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I wonder if the heartland of Europe ever considered Russia to be a part of the European people.
 

Ray

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What Europeans think of each other

This is a basic backgrounder for Americans, primarily, who might think Europeans do nothing all day but bitch about Americans. Don't get me wrong—they do love bitching about Americans. But they also like bitching about each other, as well. Bordering countries, especially, have complex caricatures of each other, even when an outsider might think they're more or less the same. The following is based on my numerous interactions with Europeans, having lived there for 4 years. Here's a run down:

The French — Disliked by some Spanish (particularly the Catalonians), for being arrogant. One woman from Barcelona told me, "Come on¦who really likes the French? Nobody!" The Swiss don't like the fact that they have contempt for authority and are lazy. The Brits, of course, have the most mixed feelings about the French, though. One half the country hates them, the other half loves them. Those that hate the French tend to like the Americans, and vice versa. In the UK, they're considered stinky, rude (they never line/queue up like decent people), and a bit yellow, based on their tendency to not fend off invaders like the Nazis.The French, in turn, dislike the British, look down on Belgians for being stupid, and don't have much to say, in my experience, about Spaniards or Germans (oddly).

The Italians — Most of the stereotypes are positive, but mostly because of the food. Northern Europeans consider them lazy and flaky, and maybe incapable of managing anything right (mostly because of the 50+ governments they've had since WW2). One Dutch professor I had dismissed another Italian one, saying, "All the Italians care about are pasta and mamma."Italians, in turn, don't have strong feelings about other Europeans, but within Italy, the north-south divide is pretty strong. Northern Italians continuously complain that Southerners are lazy and unproductive, while Southerners complain that Northerners are devoid of culture or joie de vivre.

The Germans — Germans are considered industrious but uptight and humorless, by just about all the other Europeans. They know WW2 is a sore spot for them, so other Europeans will often mercilessly tease them about it. As much as Germany is considered an economic powerhouse, the vast majority of Europeans don't really want to learn German or study there (or send their kids there to study). The food is considered uninspired, too, and only Berlin has some cachet among younger Europeans for its vibrant underground club scene. The most anti-German sentiments are among the Dutch and Danish, who just hate them from invading their countries too often. When German ask for directions in Holland, they're usually given directions to the shortest way out of the country, or told "Give us back our bikes!", a reference to the fact that Germans confiscated Dutch bicycles during WW2.Danes hate it when you pronounce their capital as "ko-pen-HAH-gen", because this is the German pronunciation. Either pronounce it the English way (with "HAY" instead), or the Danish way, which is literally impossible to put down here.Germans tend to like their Western neighbors far more than they are liked by them, but they look down on their Eastern neighbors, particularly Poles. They, oddly, have some mixed respect for the Czechs, who have resisted German aggression.

The Scandinavians — Widely respected by most other Europeans, because of their high standard of living "¦and blond hair and blue eyes. However, within Scandinavia there are some persistent stereotypes. The Norwegians, Danes and Finns all think the Swedes are stupid and uptight. Norwegians are considered racist. Danes are considered more blunt than the others, maybe a bit more cranky, and the Finns are oddly introverted, even by Scandinavian standards. Except for the Danes really disliking Germans, and Finns really disliking Russians, they don't really have anything against other Europeans.

The Belgians — Considered idiots by both the Dutch and the French. Belgians, in turn, consider the Dutch to be a bunch of cranky assholes, and French stuck-up.

The Dutch — The Dutch, like the Scandinavians, have an enviable economy and social order that's admired by southern European countries. However, they do have a reputation of being self-righteous "know-it-alls" and very similar to their German cousins in terms of their rigidity. But they do not like any comparisons to Germans, and if you remind them that the Dutch national anthem makes a reference to the Dutch being "van Duitse bloed" (from German blood), you might quickly get the silent treatment. The Dutch are also disliked for being the biggest misers in Europe, and because of this they incur the wrath of the tourist industry wherever they travel. The Dutch have been known to stock up on water before they take their campers down to the south of France.The Dutch, in turn, kind of look down on just about everyone. Yes, there's a bit of a reason for the "know-it-all" smart-ass reputation they have.

The Swiss — Considered extremely rigid, even by the Germans. Blunt to the point of being rude, the Swiss probably have the least likely reputation for being characterized as "friendly" or "warm". Note that there is a big cultural divide between French-speaking Swiss, and the German-speaking Swiss. The former are almost exactly like the French, except having a blander cuisine and more respect for authority, the latter being more like the Germans except even more stiff, rigid and cranky. However, everyone knows Switzerland "works" so the fact that foreigners comprise 20% of the population (mostly from EU member states) should make this clear.Note that the German-speaking Swiss also speak their own variant of German, which sounds very strange if you've only been exposed to standard "hoch-Deutsch".

The Spaniards — Honestly, very little antagonism against the Spanish or by the Spanish. No one really seems to dislike them, and they don't seem to really dislike anyone else. (Yes, some Spaniards near the border to France don't like the French very much) Not entirely sure why. However, God forbid you speak Spanish with a Latin American accent — there is still a lot of snobbery among Spaniards towards Latin Americans. Spaniards consider themselves white and European, and would be deeply insulted if you suggested they were Latin American of any kind.

The Greeks — Only nominally considered European by other Europeans, but the Greeks fiercely identify as European. Naturally, this is a huge irritant to Greeks.

The Poles — Not much seems to register about Poland and the Poles except that they're quiet. They are a relatively big country (40 million people) so the supposed scare of being overrun by Eastern Europeans when a bunch of Eastern European countries joined the EU in 2005 focused in on the Poles. The Germans really don't like Poles, and among Germany's 9 neighbors, are disliked the most. Poland is considered a country of car thieves by the Germans. Really, the relationship between Germany and Poland is similar to that of the United States and Mexico, and often for many of the same reasons (differences in income, history of war, different languages, etc.).Poles really shore up their hatred for their eastern & southern neighbors, primarily Russia and Ukraine, although they don't like Czechs, Slovaks or Lithuanians either. Oddly, they don't really mind the Germans, and probably still fear them a bit — you never, ever hear jokes about Germans in Poland.

The Czechs — Considered a relatively bright spot of Eastern Europe by Western Europeans, but I think primarily because Prague is such a gorgeous city and a popular tourist destination. Czechs are a bit like Germans, though — a bit rude, blunt, and cold. Poles don't have much good to say about them.

The Austrians — Considered a mix of the best & worst aspects of Germany and the Balkans, Austrians are considered laid-back but very nationalistic and racist. They're said to be the birthplace of Hitler, but never came around to being fully apologetic about the Holocaust (unlike Germany). Neutral feelings from most ofWestern Europe, negative feelings from Germans (who consider them backwards, and not always the representing the best image of German-speaking people) and admired by Eastern Europeans (a throwback to the Hapsburgs).

The British – About half of the British would be really angry at being called European, so that should provide an apt starting point. The main beef with the Brits is that they're considered the lapdog of the U.S., and are anti-European because the U.S. tells them to be so. They are considered polite, but maybe a bit two-faced (hence "Janus Britain") and snobby. The Scots and Welsh are tolerated and liked, inasmuch as that no one really knows too much about them outside the UK, but the English are those that bear the brunt of negative sentiments among other Europeans. After all, London is in England.
The English also have a poor reputation in tourist traps, such as Amsterdam and Ibiza, for being loud-mouthed, obnoxious drunks.
The English, in turn, really seem to hate everyone. This is because it's pretty hard to find an Englishman that has even, at best, neutral opinions about other Europeans (or Americans, or other nationalities). Europe is full of English expats, and the longer they live abroad, the more they seem to hate their host country. And yet they never seem to want to move home.

The Irish — A very small country, despite its exaggerated importance in Americans' minds (just over 3 million) but considered polite and humble. They nominally dislike the English, but I have yet to meet an Irishman who really loathes the English. The sentiments towards the Irish and by the Irish seem to be positive, overall.
I personally don't know much about how the Portuguese, Hungarians, Romanians, Bulgarians, and others are perceived, or how they perceive others, but if you have something to add, please do so in the comments below.

I'll leave you with this poster I saw in an Italian office years ago, that helps sum it up in some ways:

In Heaven"¦

the mechanics are German
the chefs are French
the police are British
the lovers are Italian
and everything is organized by the Swiss.
In Hell"¦

the mechanics are French
the police are German
the chefs are British
the lovers are Swiss
and everything is organized by the Italians.
What Europeans think of each other :: Daily Candor
 

pmaitra

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Hungary Press Fears US-Made Maidan in Budapest

US embassy charge in Budapest, Andre Goodfriend has attended anti-government demonstrations.


(Magyar Nemzet) [SOURCE]

Magyar Nemzet (Hungarian Nation) is a conservative daily close to Viktor Orban's Fidesz party.

The article below was written by its editorial board.

It ran with the title "Kiev Scenario with Western Producer?"

This article originally appeared in Magyar Nemzet. It was translated from original Hungarian by Google Translate.





Although in Budapest Molotov cocktails are not flying and blood does not flow in the streets, as it did this time last year in Kiev, but to explore parallels and the logic of events at Kossuth Square.

This scenario was the first point where students and NGOs began protests in Kiev's main square next to America's strong support.

Masses appear vital to the future of the European Union, demanding a change of government, as well as anti-corruption slogans took over the streets.

It is known in the Hungarian capital virtually marched under banners such as Hungarian domestic counterparts - sometimes accompanied by Andre Goodfriend US attorney - ever since the participants in the demonstrations.

This was followed by the second item on the streets of Kiev scenario of extreme Right Sector appearance, and behind them the peaceful demonstrations eldördültek before the first shots, flew the first Molotov cocktails.

Today in Budapest, Kossuth tér "Nowhere to recede, we" between demonstration beer bottle-throwing participants appeared in the Budaházy George, who previously was also accused of a terrorist organization as a manager of a Molotov cocktail and armed attacks carried out by politicians to intimidate.

We all remember what it was over Kiev version of the story: the bloody street clashes, and there was even bloodier civil war; in the last year, demanded a high power plays in the lives of thousands of Ukrainians in Ukraine.

It is not yet know what will be the end of the Hungarian scenario; says a lot about the same time that you complained Viktor Orban, Hungary to America declared operational area.

In this context, intelligence expert Laszlo Földi between the year pointed out that if a country "action area" is declared, it means that there virtually all devices are allowed; Allied countries do not take such a step against one another - emphasized.


 

pmaitra

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Pragmatist Georgia PM Wants to Rout pro-West Hawks, Normalize Russia Ties

A succinct and insightful overview of Georgia political scene.


Pietro Shakarian (Reconsidering Russia) [SOURCE]

This is an excerpt from an article that originally appeared at Reconsidering Russia.



The controversy over the statement reveals the difficult position of Georgia's pragmatists, led by Prime Minister Garibashvili.

The vast majority of the Georgian population supports them (especially in the regions).

However, they are opposed by a very vocal minority of pro-Western political parties (the UNM, Free Democrats, and Republicans) and pro-Western NGOs.

These pro-Western hawks also have representation in parliament that is proportionally higher than their actual electorate.

In addition, they have support from influential Western politicians, especially in Washington as recent support for former President Saakashvili illustrated.

Consequently, the line that the pragmatists have to tread is difficult.

Recently former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, who supports the pragmatists, stated that Georgia's "geographical position as well as internal and regional problems put us in a rather difficult situation; however, all resources to achieve our common and long-cherished goal [of a prosperous state] are in our hands today."

He also added "the former authorities, who now represent the opposition, still endeavor to put pressure on our people; although all their attempts to do this have ended in failure thus far."

Yet, despite the challenges, Prime Minister Garibashvili is fully committed to keeping Georgia balanced.

Throughout this past year, the Prime Minister has proven himself to be very much to be his own man, contrary to opposition allegations of him being an "Ivanishvili puppet."

In fact, Garibashvili continued balancing his government's pursuit to normalize ties with Moscow while keeping the pro-Western hawks at bay.

Further, in the aftermath of the Alasania scandal in November, it was Garibashvili who single-handedly managed to keep the coalition together and to avert a crisis.

Also under Garbashvili's watch, the Georgian economy grew.

Even in recent months, when the lari suffered a fall in connection with the depreciation of the ruble, the government managed to stabilize the situation.

With regard to the Abkhaz and the Ossetes, Garbashvili's conciliatory statements and actions have helped to build confidence more so than any other political leader in Georgia's post-Soviet history.

Sadly, his overtures were complicated by more bellicose and provocative steps taken by former Defense Minister Alasania.

Still, the fact remains that Garibashvili is firmly and sincerely committed to the restoration of Georgian unity through peaceful and pragmatic means.

Garibashvili's government has had more difficulty in its relations with Ukraine.

In particular, the new Kiev government's proximity to former President Saakashvili, who is wanted in Georgia for abuse of office, has alarmed Tbilisi's pragmatists.

Relations recently went from bad to worse when the Poroshenko government decided to appoint Saakashvili political allies to top government posts.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili

Poroshenko even considered making Saakashvili himself Deputy Prime Minister, a position that the former Georgian President eventually declined.

The decision to appoint Saakashvili allies also sparked indignation in Ukraine due to the fact that they were foreign citizens to whom Poroshenko had to grant immediate citizenship.

Responding to the appointments, Garibashvili emphasized that the presence of Saakashvili-era officials in the Kiev government was damaging relations between Georgia and Ukraine.

He found it incomprehensible that Kiev would be interested in appointing Zurab Adeishvili, the Saakashvili-era Justice Minister who is wanted by Tbilisi via an Interpol Red Notice, to an official position.

He also accused Saakashvili's former Healthcare Minister, Aleksandr Kvitashvili, who was appointed by Poroshenko as Kiev's new Healthcare Minister, of "destroying the Georgian healthcare system."

Though he is experiencing difficulties with Ukraine, Garibashvili remains committed to restoring relations with Russia.

At his recent marathon press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his readiness to meet with the Georgian political leadership.

"We are ready to move in this direction," said Putin, "and if the Georgian government considers it possible, we will be glad to see any representative of the Georgian leadership – the President or the Prime Minister, in Moscow."

In response, Garibashvili announced that the Georgian government is now officially ready for such a summit, which may take place in 2015.

Such a meeting would be a positive step forward for regional security, cooperation, and stability.

Regardless of what finally happens, Garibashvili must be cautious and pragmatic while simultaneously keeping Georgia's national interests at the forefront.

If this past year is any indication, the 32-year-old Prime Minister is certainly up to the task.

Pietro A. Shakarian is an MA graduate student at the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies (CREES) at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. His writings have appeared, among others, in The Nation, The National Interest and The Wall Street Journal.
 

pmaitra

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Between West and Putin Russians Will Choose Putin Every Time

Russians aren't stupid. They know the west is no friend to Russia.


M.K. Bhadrakumar (Indian Punchline) [SOURCE]


For Russians west is where invasions come from

This is an excerpt from an article that originally appeared at Indian Punchline.




The Cold-War style propaganda against Russian President Vladimir Putin in the western media may have peaked.

So much garbage has been thrown at the Russian leader that the inventory must be getting depleted.

But amidst all the mudslinging, Putin himself remains nonchalant, again belying the western character sketches of him that he can't take criticism. Apparently he can.

Besides, Putin's popularity within Russia itself is soaring above 80 percent currently. It is doubtful if any world leader can match Putin's popularity today.

And that also probably explains Putin's indifference to the western media attacks on him. As he told an interviewer once, he was elected, after all, to serve his country and not for being 'nice' to Barack Obama.

An American poll conducted by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Chicago has come up with some stunning results:
  • Putin is extremely popular among the Russian people, enjoying an approval rating of 81 percent;
  • Economic woes are top of mind among the Russian people and they agree western sanctions are hurting the economy, but they do not yet feel a negative impact on their pocketbooks;
  • Most Russians feel their country is headed in the right direction and are optimistic about their own personal finances in the coming years;
  • Two thirds of Russians favor supporting the separatist movement in Ukraine.

The poll is particularly interesting because NORC in the University of Chicago (where Obama taught for 12 years ending as a professor) also works for the "government agencies" to provide data and analysis that "support informed decision making in key areas."

Suffice it to say, the AP-NORC poll would have come to the attention of the White House and possibly, Obama's aides might even have drawn his attention to it.

How should Obama view the startling results of the AP-NORC poll? Evidently, the poll shows that his Russia policy is in a shambles.

If the hope was that under the weight of sanctions, Russian economy will pack up and popular disaffection with Putin will cascade and that in turn will be the end of the Russian leader's political life, well, things are going haywire.

Objectively speaking, the Russian people are pretty much pleased with Putin's policies.

And Obama's calculation that he is cleverly separating the Russian leader from his people has gone horribly wrong.

Putin is actually enjoying popularity that is more than double of Obama's. Self-styled Russian hands in the US were forecasting cracks in the Russian system. But nothing of the sort happened.

What Obama overlooks is that the Russian people are very different from the average American who is gullible about what goes on in the world outside.

The Russian people are literate and politically conscious – thanks to the Soviet legacy – and they do understand what the US' 'containment strategy' toward Russia or NATO's expansion is all about.

They understand that Ukraine crisis is an existential struggle for strategic balance with America. So, they want Putin to stay on course.


M.K. Bhadrakumar is a retired Indian diplomat with three decades of service. He speaks Russian and served twice in the Indian embassy in Moscow. He has contributed to Asia Times Online, The Hindu and Deccan Herald.
 

power_monger

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What Europeans think of each other

This is a basic backgrounder for Americans, primarily, who might think Europeans do nothing all day but bitch about Americans. Don't get me wrong—they do love bitching about Americans. But they also like bitching about each other, as well. Bordering countries, especially, have complex caricatures of each other, even when an outsider might think they're more or less the same. The following is based on my numerous interactions with Europeans, having lived there for 4 years. Here's a run down:


The Germans — Germans are considered industrious but uptight and humorless, by just about all the other Europeans. They know WW2 is a sore spot for them, so other Europeans will often mercilessly tease them about it. As much as Germany is considered an economic powerhouse, the vast majority of Europeans don't really want to learn German or study there (or send their kids there to study). The food is considered uninspired, too, and only Berlin has some cachet among younger Europeans for its vibrant underground club scene. The most anti-German sentiments are among the Dutch and Danish, who just hate them from invading their countries too often. When German ask for directions in Holland, they're usually given directions to the shortest way out of the country, or told "Give us back our bikes!", a reference to the fact that Germans confiscated Dutch bicycles during WW2.Danes hate it when you pronounce their capital as "ko-pen-HAH-gen", because this is the German pronunciation. Either pronounce it the English way (with "HAY" instead), or the Danish way, which is literally impossible to put down here.Germans tend to like their Western neighbors far more than they are liked by them, but they look down on their Eastern neighbors, particularly Poles. They, oddly, have some mixed respect for the Czechs, who have resisted German aggression.

What Europeans think of each other :: Daily Candor
Somehow with my limited interaction of germans,I sensed there is still hidden love for germans for Hitler.To a outsider they will not even talk about hitler.Get close to them,they will reveal different picture.offcourse this is just my observation with limited interaction and i could be wrong.One thing,hate towards turkey people seemed universal there.

But comming to punctuality,I use to work in a team which use to go to lunch sharp 11.21am(by culturally we give more importance to .15,.30.45 and hour timings). Such punctuality is un-heard here.
 
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power_monger

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BTW,Putin is considered as a moderate leader in Russia.God knows what kind of person will be putins successor if america is successful in its goal of removing putin.
 

jouni

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Between West and Putin Russians Will Choose Putin Every Time

Russians aren't stupid. They know the west is no friend to Russia.


M.K. Bhadrakumar (Indian Punchline) [SOURCE]


For Russians west is where invasions come from

This is an excerpt from an article that originally appeared at Indian Punchline.





M.K. Bhadrakumar is a retired Indian diplomat with three decades of service. He speaks Russian and served twice in the Indian embassy in Moscow. He has contributed to Asia Times Online, The Hindu and Deccan Herald.
"West is the enemy of Russia", funny that without help from the west there would be no Russia, Wehrmacht would have defeated Red Army without help from the allies. Russia would now be Germans lebensraum. So soon they forget. Of course Greater Finland would have gotten a piece also ;)
 

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