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The next 20 years seem to store a lot of action for the world affairs. I was trying to look at the worst possible scenario for the world. I am trying to summarize the few possible outcomes. Here is the complete situation.
1. PRC will be caught between three scenarios. The citizens are becoming more assertive about their rights-political being the most critical one. We have seen the fall of USSR when they tried to open up their political process. Although China has not repeated their mistake of opening the economy later but relinquishing power takes a lot of effort. So, China may be caught in a civil war. To avoid the situation, the best way out for the Communist Party is to feed propaganda to the public and start asserting themselves militarily in the world. So, we have three situations for China-----an internal civil war or international military expeditions or peaceful transition to democracy.
2. India--the shift of power to states continues which stalls economic reforms and India falls back to the Hindu rate of growth. The Maoists start asserting themselves more with dwindling economic scenario. The rise in Muslim population fractures the political arena and we see the rise of one political party with Muslim identity(competition among many parties would weaken the Muslim cause). This can sow the seeds for next partition and increased communal enmity. Or, India continue on its economic growth trajectory without any hiccups.
3. Pakistan--breaks up or survives by starting another limited time war with India.
4. Europe--will they stick together to check the growth of new assertive Asia or some economic crisis with break this coalition? The first scenario implies that nations would accept the hegemony of Paris and Berlin and will see more fiscal consolidation of the ECB. In case of break-up they would lose all the power that consolidation could bring to the negotiation table in the world affairs.
5. USA--the wars and financial crisis has already thrown it on a downward trajectory. In case PRC assets itself militarily would US stay away or jump in and kill the economic collaboration built over the years? Under decreased influence it would be interesting to see if US would again start reintegrating itself with a factional/integrated Europe or India.
Please feel free to add analysis about other parts of the world and try to make a picture of the world 20 years from now.
1. PRC will be caught between three scenarios. The citizens are becoming more assertive about their rights-political being the most critical one. We have seen the fall of USSR when they tried to open up their political process. Although China has not repeated their mistake of opening the economy later but relinquishing power takes a lot of effort. So, China may be caught in a civil war. To avoid the situation, the best way out for the Communist Party is to feed propaganda to the public and start asserting themselves militarily in the world. So, we have three situations for China-----an internal civil war or international military expeditions or peaceful transition to democracy.
2. India--the shift of power to states continues which stalls economic reforms and India falls back to the Hindu rate of growth. The Maoists start asserting themselves more with dwindling economic scenario. The rise in Muslim population fractures the political arena and we see the rise of one political party with Muslim identity(competition among many parties would weaken the Muslim cause). This can sow the seeds for next partition and increased communal enmity. Or, India continue on its economic growth trajectory without any hiccups.
3. Pakistan--breaks up or survives by starting another limited time war with India.
4. Europe--will they stick together to check the growth of new assertive Asia or some economic crisis with break this coalition? The first scenario implies that nations would accept the hegemony of Paris and Berlin and will see more fiscal consolidation of the ECB. In case of break-up they would lose all the power that consolidation could bring to the negotiation table in the world affairs.
5. USA--the wars and financial crisis has already thrown it on a downward trajectory. In case PRC assets itself militarily would US stay away or jump in and kill the economic collaboration built over the years? Under decreased influence it would be interesting to see if US would again start reintegrating itself with a factional/integrated Europe or India.
Please feel free to add analysis about other parts of the world and try to make a picture of the world 20 years from now.