Pakistan to lease Gilgit-Baltistan to China & possible Indian response

no smoking

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

We need strong leadership at centre and not idiots like UPA. So what if Pak has Nukes. They know that we too have them. But they have used them more effectively till now compared to idiots of raisina Hills in Delhi. We need someone who comes to power in Delhi and tells Pakistan so what if you have nukes, get out of POK or we will throw you out. And you will see the change in the way Pakistan behaves.
So you would like to push Pakistan to the corner to check if they have the gut to destroy themselves and you together?
 

pmaitra

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

So you would like to push Pakistan to the corner to check if they have the gut to destroy themselves and you together?
The cat has to be belled, today or tomorrow.

We are losing our civilians to Pakistani terrorists on a regular basis. I'd rather our soldiers fight it out. War is not nice, but diplomacy doesn't solve all problems. It all boils down to slow and prolonged conflict resulting in death and destruction, or a sudden conflict with far more casualties, but the promise of peace if there is victory.
 

Yusuf

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

@Decklander : Sir, from your reply, I understand that it is imperative upon India to call their nuke bluff & take the war inside PoK/G&B. My queries are:

Is our conventional superiority over Pak overwhelming enough to result in a "decisive outcome" ? Something like that would be unprecedented.
Second, is India militarily ready to handle the escalation & win the war that would be fought under a nuclear overhang & possible Chinese intervention ?
Finally, can we effectively control the occupied territory & handle the aftermath (regional & international scene) ?

I have been saying for years we have to call their nuke bluff. India still retains conventional superiority. If CSD is implemented we can achieve quite a lot. We need to set out OPOBJ right.
 
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Tianshan

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

you should have just taken it in 1971 when you already won, and avoided all this hassle.
 

Ray

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

@TrueSpirit,

The truism is that India does not want to enter into warfare with either China or Pakistan, unless attacked.

It is not that India does not have the capacity to take them on, it is just that the those who are in government have no idea of strategic planning and none have any military experience. Therefore, to them a war appears as a Doomsday scenario that is best avoided.

The ideal way to achieve some effect without war would be to encourage internal rebellions that are already on the surface in both the countries.
 
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Ray

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

A direct answer to the question: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China?
Not being in the PMO, that is a million dollar question.

Given the way the Govt capitulates, I don't think that GoI will do anything except make some loud noise and moral high standing!
 

TrueSpirit

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

@TrueSpirit,

The truism is that India does not want to enter into warfare with either China or Pakistan, unless attacked.

It is not that India does not have the capacity to take them on, it is just that the those who are in government have no idea of strategic planning and none have any military experience. Therefore, to them a war appears as a Doomsday scenario that is best avoided.

The ideal way to achieve some effect without war would be to encourage internal rebellions that are already on the surface in both the countries.
Thanks Sir, for sharing your views on this. I am all for asymmetrical warfare (rebellions/targeted assassinations & sabotage). I believe India should not refrain from exercising these options for catering to "Aman-Ki-Asha" lobbies.
 
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SinghSher1984

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

I don't have a huge dis-trust for the government, edit such as MMS or KPS Gill however everyone is human.

With that tone, I'll say this; put yourself in their shoes, and care more about people than territory. India will bring hell if Punjab, Rajasthan, Bangal aka the border states with actual people in them are invaded. It'll play games, and tit for tat this or that until a real doomsday scenario.

However, you have to question their intelligence when they let Badal smuggle drugs abroad and into Punjab destroying their largest recruitment base. I said they were humans, I meant homo-erectus. :p Again, there is no forgiveness for true gaddari however, human is human, put yourself in their shoes. And do that, after they are gone.
 
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Decklander

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

India has the overwhelming conventional and nuke superiority over Pakistan. Just recently the expansion plan of PAF 2025 has been shelved due to lack of funds. same is the situation vd Pak Navy and Army. Pakistan has decided to lower its conventional capability and rely more on Nukes as a deterrant and defensive weapon. Once we call off their nuke bluff, they are as good as defenceless in conventional terms. heating up things in GB will force pak to spend more on weapons and that way we can make the road to self destrution like USA did to USSR.

Regarding demographic change done by Pakistan in these areas, I wud only say that this can be undone within few days of war. The moment we move into GB, most non Kashmiries will run away as they will be pointed out to IA by locals who do not want to be vd Pakistan.
 

arnabmit

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

Helina is our Hellfire?

Those are only surveillance drones. Not attack drones. Another question, what missile will be mounted on any such drone we get from Israel if they develop one or if we develop one ourselves? What's Indias version of Helfire?
 

arnabmit

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arnabmit

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

India already operates IAI Harpy kamakaze drones. IAI Harop on the way...

The Indian Air Force is preparing for the induction of the first 'suicide drone' wing, utilizing the Harop loitering weapons obtained in 2010 from Israel. The first of 10 HAROP units is expected to become operational in 2013. India is already operating the radar suppression variant of the weapon, the HARPY.
India to Induct Loitering Weapon, Upgrade Israeli Searcher Mk II, Heron I Fleet - Defense Update - Military Technology & Defense News

Yes, indeed; as a matter of fact, we can devise cheap drones that will be used only once, and will be RC guided, and can be fitted with a camera so that pilots on the ground can see the area, and once we are at the top of the target, dive down the drone and explode.
 

roma

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

as usual we deal diplomatically or our pm flies to japan :laugh:
in fact ccp doesnt think it is so funny - i really believe that this is a clincher against a chipak that held a knife to us for so long - but india will have to play it right and so for that is what mms has done - have a high opinion of him - he is doing v well considering the givens

Well India can retaliate by stopping Water-Flow into Pakistan..( omitted the other part )
..
this is a first class level statement - sooner or later this card in our pack will have to be hinted at .

UPA doesn't have guts nor will power to do that, however its a tough question. But if you ask with "should" I will say 'yes'.
Bro, why blame the present goi when it was one dreamer of the relatively by now distant past who in the first place didnt take the territory when all it would have taken was a mere 4 more days of military action in a battle that was precipitated by packland

my contrib to this thread would therefore be a simple NO ! .... followed by a firstly we cant and secondly , thankfully there actually ARE better options !
thirdly - apart from any mining or resources, if it is merely to give ccp military bases, they could do it ( have already done it ) right now without having to lease it
there are a string of reasons why it is gonna be difficult and unnecessary for military action - just as there are other ways around this challenge .

what india has to do is to get the pathans and nwfp folks involved - get them to realise that there land is being given away and they will end up like the tibetans - show them that in fact ccp has long claimed that land as theirs.... remind the nwfp folks that if GB is leased successfully, they will be next on the list !

influence nawaz shariff - who by nature of his plans for badly needed boost of the economy has taken a more realistic stand towards india - that :-
leasing the land to ccp = giving it away for ever

become stronger militarily and encircle ccp ( the best we can ) by continued alliances and projects with Japan Korea and Vietnam , USA
 
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no smoking

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

The cat has to be belled, today or tomorrow.
War is not the only solution.

We are losing our civilians to Pakistani terrorists on a regular basis.
How so? Economically, you are growing faster; Politically, you are becoming a rising power. There is nothing Pakistan can do about it. Now you are turning into the only field where Pakistan can hurt you badly. Good thinking!

I'd rather our soldiers fight it out. War is not nice, but diplomacy doesn't solve all problems. It all boils down to slow and prolonged conflict resulting in death and destruction, or a sudden conflict with far more casualties, but the promise of peace if there is victory.
Did India really try deplomatic solution? With india's "taking all" attitude, I really doubt it.

What kind of peace are you seeking? A peace which is built on the nuclear ashes! Yes, you may kill Pakistan, but you will be as good as dead.
 

pmaitra

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

War is not the only solution.
With Pakistan, there is no other solution.

How so? Economically, you are growing faster; Politically, you are becoming a rising power. There is nothing Pakistan can do about it. Now you are turning into the only field where Pakistan can hurt you badly. Good thinking!
There is nothing Pakistan can do? I doubt it. Pakistan can become a vassal of PRC, and India will be in a greater threat.

Did India really try deplomatic solution?
Yes, since 1948. Didn't work, and it never will.

With india's "taking all" attitude, I really doubt it.
You are entitled to your doubts.

What kind of peace are you seeking? A peace which is built on the nuclear ashes! Yes, you may kill Pakistan, but you will be as good as dead.
It won't take India more than 3 days to lay a siege on Lahore, Faisalabad, Shakargarh area. Pakistan won't hit the nuke button by then. We will then declare ceasefire and invite Pakistan for talks. Pakistan will budge. If talks fail, then it will be Diwali for everyone to see. India will carry out strikes to disable any Pakistani capacity to launch thier nukes.
 

SinghSher1984

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

Yes, since 1948. Didn't work, and it never will.

Let's not beat around the bush, since 711, didn't work and never will.

edit - We should not treat and idea as a country; Pakistan is an idea, and they believe they come from arabs. So, let's keep it 100% real.

Ghazni invaded 16 times before succeeding once, pakistan has tried 3,4? now. let's see how long this continues.
@pmaitra what makes you think they don't have nukes hidden in mountains? They relocated to rawalpindi and Islamabad precisely to have hardened positions.

I think formenting dissent in Afgh, and Baloch is good right now. Better to do something small secretly, than big and get caught.
 
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pmaitra

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

Opinion of Maj Gen Afsir Karim AVSM in the Kargil War backdrop when both India and Pakistan had demonstrated nuke capability.

What should India do ?

India has to shake its defensive mindset and fear of escalation of the conflict. A limited offensive is required to make Pakistan forces recoil and defend their own vital areas of POK. This is just not a notion. I am sure Indian Army has such contingency plans. Discussions in various war games and exercise indicated this in the past as no army can fight a purely defensive war, in Kashmir and win. Attack on the Pakistan's army supply bases and gun areas can put Pakistan on the defensive.India should also raise Special Forces to attack terrorist training camps in POK and create disturbances in certain parts of POK. The special forces need not be from the army or other government forces, but volunteers who want to teach Pakistan a lesson or two. Suggestions like this are considered impractical and adventurist by our old guard play-safe politicians and military leaders. However our new generation is quite capable of carrying out such plans.
Excerpt from BR; full report: Bharat Rakshak :: Land Forces Site - Confrontation in Kargil
 

pmaitra

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

@pmaitra what makes you think they don't have nukes hidden in mountains? They relocated to rawalpindi and Islamabad precisely to have hardened positions.
Yes, they very likely have nukes hidden in their mountains. No effort can be assumed to be 100% success. Even if we try hard, there is always a risk of a nuclear attack. On the other hand, even if we cannot destroy their nukes, if we can achieve air supremacy, and destroy their air force, and also the missile positions, we will have taken away their nuke delivery capability, if not the nukes themselves.

It has to be a blitzkrieg attack. Indian intelligence is probably working day and night to get information about Pakistani nukes. India is capable of overwhelming Pakistan in no more than one week.

I think formenting dissent in Afgh, and Baloch is good right now. Better to do something small secretly, than big and get caught.
Yes, absolutely. India really needs to work hard on that area. Keep Pakistan on the boil. If India has to invade, it must invade with the promise to give freedom to the Baloch.
 
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Yusuf

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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

All India needs is good surveillance over Pak. Pak nukes are in disassembled format. So that is one way to detect an impending strike. Their primary missile is the Ghauri which is liquid fueled. Any refueling can be detected and this information can be used to prepare our own strike to take out the missiles and nukes. And no we don't even have to use our nukes to take them out. Can be done with conventional weapons.
 

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