Pakistan to lease Gilgit-Baltistan to China & possible Indian response
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
We don't have UCAVs yet
pmaitra
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
We are throwing money away for getting bits and pieces of military hardware from all and sundry, why not get drones and start making life hell for those Pakistani squatters, and we can also make a few mistakes here and there, and bomb PLA units stationed in PoK or GB?
Yes, but we are flush with dough, if you know what I mean.
We are throwing money away for getting bits and pieces of military hardware from all and sundry, why not get drones and start making life hell for those Pakistani squatters, and we can also make a few mistakes here and there, and bomb PLA units stationed in PoK or GB?
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
Who apart from US has it? US will not pass on those to us. We could have got from Israel if they had one
pmaitra
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
Wiki says India has drones (IAI Heron, IAI Harop and IAI Harpy) from Israel.
Link: Unmanned combat air vehicle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Now that is a good question - will the US sell us drones?
Wiki says India has drones (IAI Heron, IAI Harop and IAI Harpy) from Israel.
Link: Unmanned combat air vehicle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
Those are only surveillance drones. Not attack drones. Another question, what missile will be mounted on any such drone we get from Israel if they develop one or if we develop one ourselves? What's Indias version of Helfire?
pmaitra
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
India has capability to develop drone-delivered missiles.
Heron can carry a load of 250 kg, for starters.
India has capability to develop drone-delivered missiles.
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
Well development means time. What do we have now or what options
pmaitra
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
Missile development won't take time, I can tell you that. We have good experience with missiles, whether ICBMs or ATGM. It is the first shot that takes time. Right now, for a drone delivered missile, we can work on what we have - think of the NAG, for example.
As I said, drop bombs for the time being. These UAVs already come with cameras and pilots sitting on the ground can easily carry out bomb runs on terror camps.
Missile development won't take time, I can tell you that. We have good experience with missiles, whether ICBMs or ATGM. It is the first shot that takes time. Right now, for a drone delivered missile, we can work on what we have - think of the NAG, for example.
mahesh
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
India´s infiltration into LOC will be considered by the pak as ´an act of war´ and that's enough for them to start a war, where china will try to cash-in the most by helping pak directly or indirectly. after the war pak will fall further into bankrupt state and poverty, India will fallback hardly in terms of economy, development and military expenditure regardless of the out come of war. china will think the expenditure incurred in this war will be far more better then investments in any foreign countries for their natural resources.
India should go into war thinking that they are fighting more then one front war. at this time china will also try to test how it's ''string of pearl'' will affect India.
here India will face severe blow for not having 1 strategic neighboring nation around it, but a enemy supporting nations.
Good times will come for India too in few decades,by then we wish, that India should remember what it's neighbors had done with india, but considering diplomacy and strategies, India cannot give-up a advantage on that times just because of not being an ally in past.
India´s infiltration into LOC will be considered by the pak as ´an act of war´ and that's enough for them to start a war, where china will try to cash-in the most by helping pak directly or indirectly. after the war pak will fall further into bankrupt state and poverty, India will fallback hardly in terms of economy, development and military expenditure regardless of the out come of war. china will think the expenditure incurred in this war will be far more better then investments in any foreign countries for their natural resources.
India should go into war thinking that they are fighting more then one front war. at this time china will also try to test how it's ''string of pearl'' will affect India.
here India will face severe blow for not having 1 strategic neighboring nation around it, but a enemy supporting nations.
Good times will come for India too in few decades,by then we wish, that India should remember what it's neighbors had done with india, but considering diplomacy and strategies, India cannot give-up a advantage on that times just because of not being an ally in past.
datguy79
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
The problem with that is drones are cannon fodder for any patrolling aircraft/SAMs.
pmaitra
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
We can easily afford to lose two UAVs every month, if we can maintain Siachen at Rs. 5 crores per day.
You are right, but frankly mate, India is flush with cash. Don't you see how much money we squandered away in the Commonwealth Games, where a big chunk of the money was appropriated as common wealth of the big honchos?
We can easily afford to lose two UAVs every month, if we can maintain Siachen at Rs. 5 crores per day.
TrueSpirit
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
IA had shown preliminary interest in vastly superior Spike from Rafael & was planning to conclude a deal quickly when the "scam scaremongers" scuttled the deal for good. Army didn't want any allegations of corruption arising out of Single-vendor procurement situation.
Javelin also impressed IA but was rejected citing some ToT issues.
So, if we are to conduct such strikes, the ever-so-reliable Milan's & Konkur's would play a bigger role than NAG.
But anyway, did we dare strike across LoC during Kargil episode, when the enemy was occupying territory & dominated heights in areas supposed to be in our control ? & That happened under the right-wing nationalist BJP regime. Maybe, a couple of shots on their ammunition dump/fuel supply depot.
But, we did not cross LoC fearing nuclear repercussions & to claim supposedly higher moral ground. We were unable to call their nuclear bluff then. Their nuke stockpile was a joke then. But now, Paki's with Chinese assistance, have evolved a great deal in those terms.
India would respond only diplomatically , even bend backwards without a second thought (as we are seeing regularly) on all border (read, sovereignty) issues. Let us not fool ourselves in expecting any better from any government on such issues.
Last I heard, Aug 2012, Nag had failed user induction trials. So, IA has "gone slow" on its decision to induct some 450 of these missiles. Further, some basic flaws in the seeker (aided by thermal imaging telescope) is being sorted out. Right now, it cannot differentiated ground clutter from target, beyond 2.5 km, more so in higher temperature in Indian planes (IMHO, that's a limitation). Weight was another vexing issue (but doesn't apply in context of UCAV) for IA.
IA had shown preliminary interest in vastly superior Spike from Rafael & was planning to conclude a deal quickly when the "scam scaremongers" scuttled the deal for good. Army didn't want any allegations of corruption arising out of Single-vendor procurement situation.
Javelin also impressed IA but was rejected citing some ToT issues.
So, if we are to conduct such strikes, the ever-so-reliable Milan's & Konkur's would play a bigger role than NAG.
But anyway, did we dare strike across LoC during Kargil episode, when the enemy was occupying territory & dominated heights in areas supposed to be in our control ? & That happened under the right-wing nationalist BJP regime. Maybe, a couple of shots on their ammunition dump/fuel supply depot.
But, we did not cross LoC fearing nuclear repercussions & to claim supposedly higher moral ground. We were unable to call their nuclear bluff then. Their nuke stockpile was a joke then. But now, Paki's with Chinese assistance, have evolved a great deal in those terms.
India would respond only diplomatically , even bend backwards without a second thought (as we are seeing regularly) on all border (read, sovereignty) issues. Let us not fool ourselves in expecting any better from any government on such issues.
pmaitra
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
@TrueSpirit,
Good post.
I hope Nag gets off the dev-table quickly.
Regarding calling Pakistan's N-bluff, I would do it anytime. Just invade and pretend they don't have nukes. You need to be a bit of a nutter to actually win a war. India was strung up with political stuck-stirrups during 1999 Kargil War, just like it was in 1962. We only won in 1999 due to the sheer sacrifice, bravery, and overwhelming use of force. Military logic says surround the enemy and cut off their supplies and keep casualties low. We didn't do that to please the international community.
We have to find a solution to this cold-feet problem that we so often get.
@TrueSpirit,
Good post.
I hope Nag gets off the dev-table quickly.
Regarding calling Pakistan's N-bluff, I would do it anytime. Just invade and pretend they don't have nukes. You need to be a bit of a nutter to actually win a war. India was strung up with political stuck-stirrups during 1999 Kargil War, just like it was in 1962. We only won in 1999 due to the sheer sacrifice, bravery, and overwhelming use of force. Military logic says surround the enemy and cut off their supplies and keep casualties low. We didn't do that to please the international community.
We have to find a solution to this cold-feet problem that we so often get.
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
until you get the drones you want, you can use missiles for the same effect.
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
The real Great Game will start after the US moves out of Afghanistan.
The Pakistan Govt has started sometime back to change the sectarian profile of this area by injecting Sunnis.
The population of the region was approximately 1.5 million, with around 39 per cent Shia, 27 per cent Sunni, 18 per cent Ismaili and 16 per cent Nurbakhshi.2 The district wise breakdown is: Gilgit: 54 per cent Shia, 27 per cent Ismaili and 19 per cent Sunni; Skardu: 87 per cent Shia, 10 per cent Nurbakhshi and 3 per cent Sunni; Diamer: 90 per cent Sunni, 10 per cent Shia; Ghizer: 87 per cent Ismaili, 13 per cent Sunni; and Ghanche: 87 per cent Nurbakhshi, 8 per cent Sunni, 5 per cent Shia. Astore, created as a District in 2005, comprises 70 per cent Sunni and 30 per cent Shia.3.
Islamabad's deliberate policy, since the Zia era, of altering the demographic balance of Shia-dominated Gilgit-Baltistan by settling outsiders in the area, has exacerbated tensions. This part of Kashmir was historically known for its demographic sanctity, since outsiders were not allowed to settle down in the area under the old order. The region has, however, paid a heavy price under Pakistani occupation. It is reported that, as of January 2001, the old population ratio of 1:4 (non-locals to locals) has now changed to 3:4 (non-locals to locals).8 The Shia pockets of Skardu and Gilgit are witnessing a constant increase in the population of non-Shias. Abdul Hamid Khan, Chairman of the Balawaristan National Front (BNF) argues,
The issue of China in Gilgit Baltisthan while a part of the new Great Game is special since it directly affect India.
The real Great Game will start after the US moves out of Afghanistan.
The Pakistan Govt has started sometime back to change the sectarian profile of this area by injecting Sunnis.
The population of the region was approximately 1.5 million, with around 39 per cent Shia, 27 per cent Sunni, 18 per cent Ismaili and 16 per cent Nurbakhshi.2 The district wise breakdown is: Gilgit: 54 per cent Shia, 27 per cent Ismaili and 19 per cent Sunni; Skardu: 87 per cent Shia, 10 per cent Nurbakhshi and 3 per cent Sunni; Diamer: 90 per cent Sunni, 10 per cent Shia; Ghizer: 87 per cent Ismaili, 13 per cent Sunni; and Ghanche: 87 per cent Nurbakhshi, 8 per cent Sunni, 5 per cent Shia. Astore, created as a District in 2005, comprises 70 per cent Sunni and 30 per cent Shia.3.
Islamabad's deliberate policy, since the Zia era, of altering the demographic balance of Shia-dominated Gilgit-Baltistan by settling outsiders in the area, has exacerbated tensions. This part of Kashmir was historically known for its demographic sanctity, since outsiders were not allowed to settle down in the area under the old order. The region has, however, paid a heavy price under Pakistani occupation. It is reported that, as of January 2001, the old population ratio of 1:4 (non-locals to locals) has now changed to 3:4 (non-locals to locals).8 The Shia pockets of Skardu and Gilgit are witnessing a constant increase in the population of non-Shias. Abdul Hamid Khan, Chairman of the Balawaristan National Front (BNF) argues,
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pmaitra
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
Yes, and I also believe this would be a good way to do a reality-test of our missiles. We can keep testing and refining them. Not sure what India is doing about its cruise missile Nirbhay.
DivineHeretic
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
If PoK (I reject the Pakistani names of the occupied territories, they have no right to name our territory) changedps hands from Pak to China, the first thing we will need to prepare for is a flood of refugees. For all the poetic terms used to describe the China-Pak relationship, the Chinese are not fools to allow back-stabbing traitors (the terrorists, the mullahs) to exist in their new territory. The last thing they need is a new territory with delirious jihadists.
They will massacre them and push them out ASAP from the PoK. And guess where these swines will try to flee to, Indian J&K. And the pitiful political class, eager to get votes, will allow them in.
But this apart, if such a change of control takes olace, there will be no two enemies, no two theatres for us to consider. It will be one theatre spread over two fornts. There will be two armies facing us, always simultaneously, never equally. The army at the west will be the sacrificial lamb and bait, while the eastern one will be the true force.
China will fight India to the last Pakistani, before entering themselves into war. And the genius Pakistanis, drunk to the neck in their ally's words, will jump headfirst into suicide
It will make things much more straightforward for NewDelhi, but by no means simple. The spectre of Pakistani First use will dissapear, as China will not risk their own destruction for a war they can win conventionally. It also means that the military commands have no ambiguity on the intent of the other when going to war with one. Both fronts will go hot.
The Army and the AF and especially the IN will also not have to worry about other nations concerns regarding the brutal speed the tri services will have to upgrade to attain sufficient capability. After allm we will be facing two land armies (divided into 2 fronts, 2 Air-Forces and 4 fleets.
If PoK (I reject the Pakistani names of the occupied territories, they have no right to name our territory) changedps hands from Pak to China, the first thing we will need to prepare for is a flood of refugees. For all the poetic terms used to describe the China-Pak relationship, the Chinese are not fools to allow back-stabbing traitors (the terrorists, the mullahs) to exist in their new territory. The last thing they need is a new territory with delirious jihadists.
They will massacre them and push them out ASAP from the PoK. And guess where these swines will try to flee to, Indian J&K. And the pitiful political class, eager to get votes, will allow them in.
But this apart, if such a change of control takes olace, there will be no two enemies, no two theatres for us to consider. It will be one theatre spread over two fornts. There will be two armies facing us, always simultaneously, never equally. The army at the west will be the sacrificial lamb and bait, while the eastern one will be the true force.
China will fight India to the last Pakistani, before entering themselves into war. And the genius Pakistanis, drunk to the neck in their ally's words, will jump headfirst into suicide
It will make things much more straightforward for NewDelhi, but by no means simple. The spectre of Pakistani First use will dissapear, as China will not risk their own destruction for a war they can win conventionally. It also means that the military commands have no ambiguity on the intent of the other when going to war with one. Both fronts will go hot.
The Army and the AF and especially the IN will also not have to worry about other nations concerns regarding the brutal speed the tri services will have to upgrade to attain sufficient capability. After allm we will be facing two land armies (divided into 2 fronts, 2 Air-Forces and 4 fleets.
pmaitra
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Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China
The 4 main regions of J&K State are: Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, and Gilgit-Baltistan, and the smaller region of Shaksgam Valley, the desert of Aksai Chin; and if you want to include Hari Singh's conquests, you can include all the territories south of the Karakax River that flows east of the Kunlun Range and passes Xaidullah.
Gilgit-Baltistan is not a Pakistan bestowed name. It is the region that is north of Kashmir Valley. The part of Kashmir Valley under Pakistani occupation (i.e. just west of Indian held Kashmir) is PoK, but the region north of it is not part of Kashmir Valley, and it is correctly called Gilgit-Baltistan. Those regions are part of the Jammu and Kashmir State, but technically, those regions are not part of Kashmir.
The 4 main regions of J&K State are: Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, and Gilgit-Baltistan, and the smaller region of Shaksgam Valley, the desert of Aksai Chin; and if you want to include Hari Singh's conquests, you can include all the territories south of the Karakax River that flows east of the Kunlun Range and passes Xaidullah.
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