garg_bharat
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Trench warfare in Donbas
(post from Armchair general.com)
Some russian guy helped me with the translation of the following report, by a Donbass war correspondent, so I repost it to save you the ache of having to google translate my blog entry.
In a nutshell,
- The danger is that ukrops can launch an attack from a standing start with no or only minimal extra preparation. They also have the advantage that they know they are not going to be attacked, and so they can dictate when and where military action takes place
- In any event, pffensive will not take place until it gets warm and mud dries, two weeks left
- My personal opinion is that ukranian army is very poor and deficient and cannot easily transition from defense to attack, given the inertia and "taking roots" factor of static positional warfare. At any rate, even if the plans and troops have been in place for a long time, the logistic buildup of supplies, fuel and artillery ammunition would take several days and be very noticeable. In my opinion, the gradual buildup of ukranian forces, by small packets week after week it is not due to subtlety or a desire to tiptoe across the threshold of Minsk agreements instead of breaking them in one bold step. Rather reflects the limited ability of the ukranian command in planning and logistics. Furthermore, the prolonged concentration of troops is counterproductive, as troops in the trenches get worn out, even if there is little fighting, and have to be rotated to the rear for rest and refit. It seems to be the case here, where brigades wich should logically be the spearhead of the offensive are relieved from the line after having sustained heavy casualties during the last month.
- the following report suggests that Ukrops will not try to breach the front since it is hopeless but try to slaughter the NAF by means of attrition in positional warfare. It is reminiscent of what Falkenhayn planned to do at Verdun, 100 years ago. Since breaking the static front was so difficult, let's provoke the enemy into an attrition fight where they will be bled white. This idea of provoking the novorussians to attack and fight a defensive one is a sensible one and perhaps the best option for the ukranians. But it is risky as the attrition cuts both ways.
On the report by Marina Kharkova -
Attacks on army positions of the DNR and settlements of the Republic with the use of weapons, some of which were kept concealed from February 2015, more and more acquire the character of speculative fire. Such operations are usually conducted by forward echelons of an assult force.
ATO spent all of March reinforcing the combat zone with weapons and military equipment. The Ukrainian armed forces command has built their strength in three lines. However, as practice shows, the Ukrainian military is compromised by keeping it's forces in one place for long periods of time.
Gorlovka and Makeevka have been subjected to heavy bombardment by ukrops, and the Nazis used all available types of AA guns, mortars and artillery from 23mm to 152mm heavy howitzers.
1. On the front line at Staromikhailovka there is a difficult situation with attacks by mortars and snipers day and night.
A VSN unit commander was killed, and tho the bullet was not recovered, it is believed to have been NATO type ammunition fired from Polish snipers out of Marinka
In general, the problem of snipers all along the front has increased tremendously.
2. The situation in the southern front at Kominternovo - Sahanka has deteriorated and the amount of shelling by all types of weapons except MLRS has increased.
3. The industrial area of Avdeevka and the Yasinvataya blockpost is under grueling fire, and figting continues to press the enemy back and supress their firing positions. Night fighting equipment was responsible for the shelling of east Makeevka.
Today I met with army sappers and de-mining sappers. These heroic guys explained the tricks they used to remove mines, like hooking them with a device like a fishing rod and pulling them, and that they bear losses. In general, very interesting.
I am doing less because of physical fatigue. For instance yesterday I drove 160 km back and forth between Staromikhailovka and hospitals in Donetsk. There is also psychological fatigue. Everything is so senseless and without mercy that I cannot analize it or how rebel forces carry on.
On the increased attacks
, the translation is reasonable, so just a summary.
The attacks are to hit the morale of soldiers and civilians.
The attacks at Avdeevka/Yasinovataya are a protracted recconaisance, but as they have been going on since early March then likely will not develop into anything more serious.
By June ATO will increase attacks to 200 per day to try to force VSN to the offensive and fall on well prepared ATO defensive positions.
If VSN do go on the offensive, Kiev will hope they will loose so many men and equipment that they can successfully counter-attack.
If VSN do not go on the offensive in the summer, then Kiev will increase the attacks to 500-1000 a day and so force VSN onto the offensive.
This situation cannot continue as each side may loose 100 men (killed) a day, the only outcome being either a diplomatic solution to properly freeze the conflict, or VSN will attack.
(post from Armchair general.com)
Some russian guy helped me with the translation of the following report, by a Donbass war correspondent, so I repost it to save you the ache of having to google translate my blog entry.
In a nutshell,
- The danger is that ukrops can launch an attack from a standing start with no or only minimal extra preparation. They also have the advantage that they know they are not going to be attacked, and so they can dictate when and where military action takes place
- In any event, pffensive will not take place until it gets warm and mud dries, two weeks left
- My personal opinion is that ukranian army is very poor and deficient and cannot easily transition from defense to attack, given the inertia and "taking roots" factor of static positional warfare. At any rate, even if the plans and troops have been in place for a long time, the logistic buildup of supplies, fuel and artillery ammunition would take several days and be very noticeable. In my opinion, the gradual buildup of ukranian forces, by small packets week after week it is not due to subtlety or a desire to tiptoe across the threshold of Minsk agreements instead of breaking them in one bold step. Rather reflects the limited ability of the ukranian command in planning and logistics. Furthermore, the prolonged concentration of troops is counterproductive, as troops in the trenches get worn out, even if there is little fighting, and have to be rotated to the rear for rest and refit. It seems to be the case here, where brigades wich should logically be the spearhead of the offensive are relieved from the line after having sustained heavy casualties during the last month.
- the following report suggests that Ukrops will not try to breach the front since it is hopeless but try to slaughter the NAF by means of attrition in positional warfare. It is reminiscent of what Falkenhayn planned to do at Verdun, 100 years ago. Since breaking the static front was so difficult, let's provoke the enemy into an attrition fight where they will be bled white. This idea of provoking the novorussians to attack and fight a defensive one is a sensible one and perhaps the best option for the ukranians. But it is risky as the attrition cuts both ways.
On the report by Marina Kharkova -
Attacks on army positions of the DNR and settlements of the Republic with the use of weapons, some of which were kept concealed from February 2015, more and more acquire the character of speculative fire. Such operations are usually conducted by forward echelons of an assult force.
ATO spent all of March reinforcing the combat zone with weapons and military equipment. The Ukrainian armed forces command has built their strength in three lines. However, as practice shows, the Ukrainian military is compromised by keeping it's forces in one place for long periods of time.
Gorlovka and Makeevka have been subjected to heavy bombardment by ukrops, and the Nazis used all available types of AA guns, mortars and artillery from 23mm to 152mm heavy howitzers.
1. On the front line at Staromikhailovka there is a difficult situation with attacks by mortars and snipers day and night.
A VSN unit commander was killed, and tho the bullet was not recovered, it is believed to have been NATO type ammunition fired from Polish snipers out of Marinka
In general, the problem of snipers all along the front has increased tremendously.
2. The situation in the southern front at Kominternovo - Sahanka has deteriorated and the amount of shelling by all types of weapons except MLRS has increased.
3. The industrial area of Avdeevka and the Yasinvataya blockpost is under grueling fire, and figting continues to press the enemy back and supress their firing positions. Night fighting equipment was responsible for the shelling of east Makeevka.
Today I met with army sappers and de-mining sappers. These heroic guys explained the tricks they used to remove mines, like hooking them with a device like a fishing rod and pulling them, and that they bear losses. In general, very interesting.
I am doing less because of physical fatigue. For instance yesterday I drove 160 km back and forth between Staromikhailovka and hospitals in Donetsk. There is also psychological fatigue. Everything is so senseless and without mercy that I cannot analize it or how rebel forces carry on.
On the increased attacks
, the translation is reasonable, so just a summary.
The attacks are to hit the morale of soldiers and civilians.
The attacks at Avdeevka/Yasinovataya are a protracted recconaisance, but as they have been going on since early March then likely will not develop into anything more serious.
By June ATO will increase attacks to 200 per day to try to force VSN to the offensive and fall on well prepared ATO defensive positions.
If VSN do go on the offensive, Kiev will hope they will loose so many men and equipment that they can successfully counter-attack.
If VSN do not go on the offensive in the summer, then Kiev will increase the attacks to 500-1000 a day and so force VSN onto the offensive.
This situation cannot continue as each side may loose 100 men (killed) a day, the only outcome being either a diplomatic solution to properly freeze the conflict, or VSN will attack.
