to take over china manufacture jobs with population alone is not gonna help.
1. manufacture jobs is not like flipping hamburger, it require certain set of skills. china already has decades of experenice in how to, efficiently manufacture things in bulk. one of the reason indicate in NYT:why apple move manufacture to china, shows that cheap labor is a small reason for outsourcing now, the most important reason is because if customer want something custom made, it can be done next door in half day, if they need hire 6000workers, it can be done in a week.
it require skill set between high school and college degree, this is especially true for consumer electronic.
2. one of the reason many company still keep their factories in china despite raising labor cost is because Infrastructure. infrastructure is crucial when coporation want to save cost, increase efficiency, and reduce transportation cost/time. if company has to spend alot time or $$$ to ship its product from to port then to US, then they will reconsider building their factories in that country.
3. superior supply chain, this is relate to #1. basically customer can request almost any custom product in china and be made in very short time due to its infrastructure, manufacture capability, etc etc. these advantage in china significantly reduce introduction of new products, thus speed up the innovation process elsewhere. we've seen new smartphone/touchpad/other electronic come out almost every year, partially due to better supply chain and efficiency of the chinese manufactures. therefore company like apply, samsung can concetrate on R&D next gen smart phone or TV etc without worry about schedule of introduce the new product, and mass produce it.
Your points are moot. All three things you stated can be developed. China had jack shit 30 years back. Whatever you setup you set it up in the last 3 decades. Dont talk like those things are some inherent qualities that no one else can acquire.
I would prefer we do not become a manufacturing lead economy. It would be in our society's interests to make sure that manufacturing stays below 40% of overall GDP. It would also be in our interests to ensure that the urban:rural population ratio stays 40:60 and never more. The right path would be to create a sustainable highly developed rural economy with micro supply chains.
To elaborate, we should try not to become a skewed economy like the US where an average meal travels 2000 miles before it reaches the plate of the end consumer. This is a result of massive farm consolidation and corporate farming. There is no local economy in the US and China is heading in exactly the same direction. In the short term this results in huge cost gains, in the long term it results in consolidation of wealth among a few. This is why per capita income is such a farcical measure. If you remove the top 10% of the American population and calculate per capita income, it drops by half as the top 10% own close to 50% of the wealth. In China the Gini is worse.
All you have with massive manufacturing base is a few really really wealthy industrialists and a millions of very lowly paid, disgruntled workforce in monotonous manufacturing jobs. The situation in China is further exasperated by the fact that 70% of that workforce is migratory and hence their quality of life is naturally worse off even without considering the hukou system.
All this still does not discount the fact that it is essential that we are a self sufficient manufacturing nation, capable of meeting our consumer needs and also an export surplus. But it should not be targeted from the perspective of establishing it as the main source of labor for our young population.
Just a sidenote: One of the things that scares the CCP shitless is that in 1989 Tienanmen, the urban population was still only half of what it is today. Imagine the next Tienanmen. Hopefully there are enough political and economic reforms to never reach that stage but I cannot see the CCP capable of such reform.
yes infrastructure can be build, manufacture can be build, worker can be trainned. but at present rate, can india train most their worker, build modern airport, transporation etc etc, so foreign coporation has the incentive to move their supply chain to india? its not something you just say, i'm building and trainning, and get it done in few years. it require decades, and india has to convince its population in order to upgrade its infrastructure, trains its worker, manage financial for these project efficentially with minium corruption etc. did you ever think about why west outsource their manufacture job to china, not india in the first place? both were poor in 80's, china has much less infrastructure, poorer than india back then.
you base on things like if/imagine next tianmen, which is unlikely to happen due to economy situation in china. despite western media, majority of chinese are optimistic and look forward to improve their live even more.
if you look raise of ANY country, manufacture is the base for all these countries. most innovation/technology were developed during manufacture stage. furthermore china is pursing innovation/domestic market and start to shift away from low-end manufacture jobs. china won't stuck at making other peoples product forever, best example is japan, S.korean, both start with low-quality/cheap product consider by west in 60-70, 80-90s, and become top tier economic power later on. china is continually evolving, if there aren't any major issues in china for the next 10-20yrs, and they stick to their plan., then 20 yrs from now china will be much different.
as far as local farm/econmy etc. i live in ohio, i can say there are ALOT farms that grow variety of farm goods. i don't know about the gap in india, but per GDP in US is still good, the rich-poor gap here is increasing, but still better than almost anywhere. also there are tons of small company in US that help local economy.
chinese migrate move because thats where the money is, simple as that.
my original post was about population alone will not overtake china manufacture jobs. you said everything can be build, and i said, its not that easy to build it, take time etc. now i judge countries base on previous stuff they done. if countries, not just india able to build large project within reasonable time limit, train workers on large scale within time limite before, then yes i would belief that country can build, train their labor force, supply chain etc etc in the future. if i build a house then i would hired an experenced contrator with plenty history for the job. corporation not only looking for masivie cheap labor, but more important they are looking for skilled cheap labor and infrastructure to support the manufacture sector. so whoever the next china will be, they need to convince those western coporation to move their manufacture from china to their country. there are plenty places that have cheap labor compare to china, and yet most company still keep their factories in china. its because china has such large manufacture base, infrastructure to support it, decent skill worker, and most corporation's supply chain are in china.
If we judge countries by previous stuff they have done, then we should only judge China by the cultural revolutions and the great leap forward. So like i said, your assumptions are stupid, your posts are full of non-sense.
Stop chiding yourself on a 30 year uptick in China. Its not like you rule the world and its not like your 'success' cannot be emulated if we are willing to pay the price you paid. India will make it, and without paying the price of freedom while getting there. go play schoolboy somewhere else.
Your word prove his point exactly. The cultural revolutions and great leap proved to be a big disaster, but these two also shows CCP's ability to organise society and carrying on the big public plans, the only problem was that their goals were wrong from the beginning. This kind of execute ability is one of core things in industrilization. India government, however, hasn't proved their ability yet.
The question is HOW. India has all these potential for decades, but so far all these advantages will remain as potential.
i'm not even chinese, i'm an asian-american, live in US for 25yrs. i went to china for vaction and other things, everytime i went there, there are huge changes. peoples salary is raising, modern airport etc etc.
if you said india can make it, i would say action speak louder than words. words is cheap, and as my co-worker said, stuff coming from mouth just like asshole, everyone has one.
if you look at all great power today, they all have good overall education,skill force, manufacture, and infrastructure. india has alot smart people but its only few % of total population. so if any country want to take over china's manufacture jobs then they need to train their workers, infrastructure to support the manufacture, supply chain etc, especially in high tech, electronic industry etc
china is in transition similart to japan after wwii, S.korea after korean war. all these country start with manufacture then move to innovation etc, true for japan, S.korea, and US.