India defence budget analysis since 2000 (Just some fun with numbers)

[ezsasa]

I have been for a couple of years been interested in our defence spending, which seems to be increasing at an average of more than 10 Percent every year. On the other hand i kept hearing about the delayed project. So i thought why don't i do an analysis of the defence procurement starting from year 2000 onwards.

So it looks like we have spent about 452.78 billion USD so far. Idea was to check if sum of money spent on big ticket items comes close to this amount. I have taken 70% as wage cost and operational cost for defence personnel and equipment. That leaves 30% for buying new defence items i.e 135.83 billion USD. R&D cost is kept at 2% of total budget.


Data has been collated based on the following criteria.

1. Procurements done after year 2000
2. Incase of doubt the production of the item should have started after 2000
3. Numbers bought or available is taken primarily from wikipedia
4. Contract amount or item cost has been taken from wikipedia or IHS jane's
5. Items whose numbers are in doubt like missiles have not been counted.
6. Future procurement deals are yet to be counted, assuming companies will be paid after delivery of item.
7. I have not counted new ITBP battalions on china border.
8. Equipment inducted after year 2000. For ex: All Arjun tanks&Sukhoi have been counted based on unit price, BMP2 up gradation has been counted, BMP 2 purchase could not be counted.

Year on Year India Defence Budget

Years -Defence budget (in USD Billions)
2000 -21.7
2001 -22.5
2002 -22.4
2003 -22.9
2004 -26.6
2005 -28.1
2006 -28.3
2007 -28.7
2008 -32.1
2009 -35.8
2010 -34.81
2011 -34.19
2012 -38.68
2013 -37
2014 -39

Total -452.78

List of all Major defence procurements i could gather by name and amount in USD(BILLIONS)



TOTAL PROCUREMENT BUDGET -135.834
Vikramaditya -2.350
INS CHAKRA -0.200
INS ARIHANT -2.900
INS ARIHANT -0.156
INS Jalashwa -0.500
INS KOLATA -3.000
SHIVALIK CLASS DESTROYERS -1.200
TALWAR CLASS -1.600
INS Kamorta -0.500
INS SARYU CLASS -0.200
INS CAR NICOBAR CLASS -0.083
INS DEEPAK -17.940
INS MAKAR -13.300
sukhoi -37.636
TEJAS DEVELOPMENT COST -1.300
C-17 -5.800
C-130J -1.500
Beriev A-50 AWECS -1.500
EMB-145 AWECS -0.385
BAE HAWK -1.825
Pilatus PC-7 -1.000
MI-17 -1.300
HAL DHRUV -0.742
MIG-29K -1.500
BOEING P8 -1.500
DORNIER DO 228 -0.266
IAI HAROP -0.100
IAI HERON -0.500
DRDO LAKSHYA -0.019
DRDO NISHANT -0.053
IAI SEARCHER -0.750
ARJUN TANK -0.719
T-90S -2.030
BMP-2 SARATH UPGRADE -1.200
R&D -9.056

SUM TOTAL EXPENSE -114.610​

So the rough total i am getting is 114.6096 billion USD. That leaves roughly 21.224 billion USD.

So Guys feel free to check and add items if i have missed something. Objective is to bring down the remaining 21 billions as much down as possible. Remember to ensure that you are not double count any of the items already existing or mentioned by other members.

In conclusion i must say we have spent a lot of money on big ticket items last decade, and now based on the news reports this decade hopefully spending will be increased on foot soldier related equipment like new carbine etc.


Cheers.

 

[Zebra]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000(Just some fun with number

^^

Cost of INS Vikramaditya (as per wiki) is $2.35 billions, whereas cost of INS Makar (as per wiki) is $1.33 millions each.

In future more 5 of them are coming. At present they are at different stages before they can join the fleet.

 

[ezsasa]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000(Just some fun with number

Thank you casper for the correction regaring INS MAKAR.
Oh dear difference amount goes upto 34 billion USD now.

TOTAL PROCUREMENT BUDGET IN BILLION USD 135.834
Vikramaditya 2.350
INS CHAKRA 0.200
INS ARIHANT 2.900
INS ARIHANT 0.156
INS Jalashwa 0.500
INS KOLKATA 3.000
SHIVALIK CLASS DESTROYERS 1.200
TALWAR CLASS 1.600
INS-Kamorta 0.500
INS SARYU CLASS 0.200
INS CAR NICOBAR CLASS 0.083
INS DEEPAK 17.940
INS MAKAR 0.133
sukhoi 37.636
TEJAS DEVELOPMENT COST 1.300
C-17 5.800
C-130J 1.500
Beriev A-50 AWECS 1.500
EMB-145 AWECS 0.385
BAE HAWK 1.825
Pilatus PC-7 1.000
MI-17 1.300
HAL DHRUV 0.742
MIG-29K 1.500
BOEING P8 1.500
DORNIER DO 228 0.266
IAI HAROP 0.100
IAI HERON 0.500
DRDO LAKSHYA 0.019
DRDO NISHANT 0.053
IAI SEARCHER 0.750
ARJUN TANK 0.719
T-90S 2.030
BMP-2 SARATH UPGRADE 1.200
R&D 9.056
SUM TOTAL EXPENSE 101.443
DIFFERENCE AMOUNT 34.391​

 

[Pulkit]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000(Just some fun with number

Is the maintenance cost part of it or not...?
I mean spare parts etc etc?

 

[ezsasa]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000(Just some fun with number

Pulkit
In 2013 budget Revenue expenditure (salaries, pensions, and maintenance of current equipment) Vs Capital Expenditure (New hardware) is around 60:40 , I have given an additional 10% for this as a buffer.

 

[p2prada]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000(Just some fun with number

I have been for a couple of years been interested in our defence spending, which seems to be increasing at an average of more than 10 Percent every year. On the other hand i kept hearing about the delayed project. So i thought why don't i do an analysis of the defence procurement starting from year 2000 onwards.

So it looks like we have spent about 452.78 billion USD so far. Idea was to check if sum of money spent on big ticket items comes close to this amount. I have taken 70% as wage cost and operational cost for defence personnel and equipment. That leaves 30% for buying new defence items i.e 135.83 billion USD. R&D cost is kept at 2% of total budget.

The capital budget has been much higher than 30%. more like 60:40

Use links like these to give you an idea about the defense budget.

India's Defence Budget 2013-14: A Bumpy Road Ahead | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

..:: India Strategic ::. MoD Updates: India's Defence Budget 2013-14

These two websites give a pretty good breakdown of the budget.

As for where it has been spent, it is much higher than what you have quoted for the same equipment since there is inflation added to long term contracts.

 

[Pulkit]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000(Just some fun with number

Okay ....
Try replying with quote.... or @ ....otherwise i wud hve missed it....

Pulkit
In 2013 budget Revenue expenditure (salaries, pensions, and maintenance of current equipment) Vs Capital Expenditure (New hardware) is around 60:40 , I have given an additional 10% for this as a buffer.

 

[ezsasa]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000(Just some fun with number

One more correction INS Deepak class fuel tanker costs 160 Million euro a piece and we have two such vessels.

Correcting the list again...
Difference amount is up again to around 52 Billion USD

TOTAL PROCUREMENT BUDGET - 135.834
Vikramaditya - 2.350
INS CHAKRA - 0.200
INS ARIHANT - 2.900
INS ARIHANT - 0.156
INS Jalashwa - 0.500
INS KOLKATA - 3.000
SHIVALIK CLASS DESTROYERS - 1.200
TALWAR CLASS - 1.600
INS-Kamorta - 0.500
INS SARYU CLASS - 0.200
INS CAR NICOBAR CLASS - 0.083
INS DEEPAK CLASS - 0.384
INS MAKAR - 0.133
sukhoi - 37.636
TEJAS DEVELOPMENT COST - 1.300
C-17 - 5.800
C-130J - 1.500
Beriev A-50 AWECS - 1.500
EMB-145 AWECS - 0.385
BAE HAWK - 1.825
Pilatus PC-7 - 1.000
MI-17 - 1.300
HAL DHRUV - 0.742
MIG-29K - 1.500
BOEING P8 - 1.500
DORNIER DO 228 - 0.266
IAI HAROP - 0.100
IAI HERON - 0.500
DRDO LAKSHYA - 0.019
DRDO NISHANT - 0.053
IAI SEARCHER - 0.750
ARJUN TANK - 0.719
T-90S - 2.030
BMP-2 SARATH UPGRADE - 1.200
R&D - 9.056
SUM TOTAL EXPENSE - 83.887
DIFFERENCE AMOUNT - 51.947​

Guys don't mind the corrections . As and when i find new information in news articles or MOD PR releases i will be updating to correct the list to the extent possible.

Appreciated if anybody can find more items that can be added to take the total cost atleast to 130 billion USD , Right now total is at around 83 billion USD and the difference amount is around 51 billion USD i.e around 3 lakh crores.

 

[HMS Astute]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000 (Just some fun with numbe

China's defence spending way ahead of India; 12.5% budget hike at best modest | Latest News & Updates at Daily News & Analysis

 

[HMS Astute]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000(Just some fun with number

Meanwhile, China spends 4x more than India's defence budget. There's no way India will be able to catch up with Asia's superpower, unless it spends around 10% of GDP on defence.

 

[Srinivas_K]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000(Just some fun with number

Meanwhile, China spends 4x more than India's defence budget. There's no way India will be able to catch up with Asia's superpower, unless it spends around 10% of GDP on defence.

Right now is India spending for minimum deterrence, hope our economy picks up in this decade so that we can match the Chinese threat.

 

[HMS Astute]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000(Just some fun with number

Right now is India spending for minimum deterrence, hope our economy picks up in this decade so that we can match the Chinese threat.

i don't think china considers india as a serious competitor in many aspects. the gap between these countries will be even larger in the coming years. the only country in the world that the sole superpower US considers as a potential rival is china, but not russia, india nor north korea.

 

[Srinivas_K]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000(Just some fun with number

i don't think china considers india as a serious competitor in many aspects. the gap between these countries will be even larger in the coming years. the only country in the world that the sole superpower US considers as a potential rival is china, but not russia, india nor north korea.

Yes at the moment Chinese see India as a potential competitor. But we have our hopes and wishes with the current Modi Govt. to succeed in implementing economic plans in this decade so that India will have considerable strength to counter China.

India is also strengthening its military / economic relations with Japan which is offering us technology and expertise.

Mean while Chinese economy is loosing its steam because of rising wages and cost of living, Their real estate bubble is deflating and is heading towards a crisis. Indian manufacturing sector is outpacing Chinese for the past 3 months and is expected to continue this trend in the future.

The projection is that India will outpace Chinese GDP growth in 2 to 3 years when the economic policies of Modi Govt. will kick start.


All India needs to do is strengthen relations with the west and Japan to counter Chinese threat until India becomes strong and can face China.

Unlike China we are a democracy and we believe in Globalization on equal terms , playing our part in the new world , believe in freedom, tolerance and we are prepared to play our role along with the west to make this planet a better one.

 

[HMS Astute]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000 (Just some fun with numbe

in concur, and it seems like india is indeed in an uncomfortable position, considering the fact that indian government and also it's people don't like the west, nato, us, uk in general, but then there's a possible threat from the aggressor china which has been bullying it's vulnerable little neighbours in the region. there are very few countries in the world which are capable of defeating and humiliating the chinese in their doorstep. a bit hard to observe the situation as both china and india are brics members, but i reckon india defo has a stronger relationship with russia than any country in the world, but then again russia is regarded as a former, current, and future enemy of the west. not sure which role india would play if a war between the west and china/russia broke out. sigh...

 

[Srinivas_K]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000 (Just some fun with numbe

in concur, and it seems like india is indeed in an uncomfortable position, considering the fact that indian government and also it's people don't like the west, nato, us, uk in general, but then there's a possible threat from the aggressor china which has been bullying it's vulnerable little neighbours in the region. there are very few countries in the world which are capable of defeating and humiliating the chinese in their doorstep. a bit hard to observe the situation as both china and india are brics members, but i reckon india defo has a stronger relationship with russia than any country in the world, but then again russia is regarded as a former, current, and future enemy of the west. not sure which role india would play if a war between the west and china/russia broke out. sigh...

India do not want S.Asia's order to be disturbed, any one who is acting against it, be it chinese or any one else is seen as an aggressor.

India and Russia have their own interests as proven in 1971 war with Pakistan, Russia will be co operating with India in future. Since rise of China is also a threat to Russia far east.

 

[Compersion]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000 (Just some fun with numbe

if pakistan would be getting closer to russia it will be at expense of usa and signifying a Paki position and policy of being more and more anti-america especially with the past in mind. such a message will be more directed towards the americans and not india. further india is not in the same basket due to the past and can relate to both Russia and America and especially with different areas of concentration and spheres of influence (Eastern vs Western india for one example). also russia might not be absolutely "friendly" since there is paki role and verbal (triumphant from Paki viewpoint) abuse with respect to afganistan and also Paki role in upbringing PRC into America and UNSC in 1970s and disturbing Soviet parameters.

 

[HMS Astute]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000 (Just some fun with numbe

do you think india would support russia if it went to a war against nato?

 

[Kranthi]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000 (Just some fun with numbe

do you think india would support russia if it went to a war against nato?

Possibility is that India will either be neutral or it will take the Russian side. Neutral in case if Russia is the aggressor.

 

[Eastman]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000 (Just some fun with numbe

do you think india would support russia if it went to a war against nato?

Before any further alliance takes place the world will be back to stone age

 

[Eastman]

Re: India defence budget analysis since 2000 (Just some fun with numbe

How about East Vs West war without Nuclear weapons