It is very clear now US has penetrated into pakistan's armed and intelligence networks. After operation Geronimo pakistan's last hope i.e pakistani armed forces are conquered at home may be with deception and using cutting edge technology.
US is debating for reducing the nuclear threat on the globe for decades especially it will be even cautions of pakistan's nuke program.
The question now Do pakistan has the complete authority on its nukes and can they threaten India with a nuke strike confidently???
Pakistan has complete authority over it's nukes save the US knows a lot about them.
The nuclear threat will only increase if the US withdraws from the region in a hurry thinking all is done now that OBL has been killed. It will embolden Pakistan which will then increase it's terror activity against india that will make india snap at some point. That could mean a possible nuclear showdown but I am of te belief that we could fight below their threashold of using nukes and anyways consider their nuke threat a bluff.
I don't have a good feeling about US moves in the region. They might move out quickly leaving Afghanistan to te vultures.
Thats what saved them after 26/11. Their heavy retaliation threat always means use of nukes. They don't have any threshold, and neither will India hold back. India will adopt the cold start strategy in case of terrorist attacks from pak.
But the situation now demands pak to curb its terrorist activities. US definitely doesn't trust pak but they neither would let go of them, a handcuffed pak is always good for India.
India just needs to increase it diplomatic powers and reach to negate Paks nukes.......and also missile shield tech.
I don't think we will be leaving Afghanistan as planned. It's obvious that the OBL raid will change the withdrawal time line. I agree with you Yusuf that a hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan would not be a smart move. I'm sure the administration is quite aware that Pakistan will be a threat in the area if we decide to leave quickly.
1. Pakistan has full authority over its nukes, no doubt it. That does not mean it will not help other nations in their quest to obtain a bomb and or give out a few dirty bombs to terrorists. When I say Pakistan has full authority, it implies that it will be tough for anyon to wrest control of Pakistans nukes from their custody.
2. They are not only can but are. Hence, our taciturn responses to Pak sponsored terror.
A way by which India can launch its own Op. Geronimo without risking a nuclear war is by realizing its CS doctrine and rebuilding its covert capabilities in Pakistan.
Pakistani nuclear facilties are widely disbursed all over the country. It can take them from a couple of days to a couple of weeks to assemble a warhead and mount it on a missile. India can conduct its own Op. Geronimo and then under cover of a false flag operation activate its CS doctrine. (CS doctrine envisages a quick 3 day blitzkrieg which will not trigger Pak's nuclear threshold)
Paaji you have to ask a bigger question .What sort of nukes the pious posess.Uranium or Plutonium.All the hoopla about centrifuges and AQ khan suggested they were U-235 based ones.But during the chagai tests the nukes were plutonium andall of the explosions were duds
Pakistan's response to CS isn't to nuke Indian cities, they plan on using nukes as tactical WMDs to repel Indian IBGs. Their aim is to use them in their own territory such as in Shejra, which will cause India maximum damage.
As far as my understanding ,Nukes is one of the reason ,we haven't had war with Pakistan in the recent past .Also keep in mind, this isn't 1945, we are living in 2011.Even a single use of Nbomb can result in full scale world war .
Though Pakistan is only country ,I fear the most who can use them if they feel they are losing .
More or less what I have understood till date is that Indian leadership especially the present Lungi/Pyjama clad corrupt politicians are wussies!!
Now lets analyse why?
1) Why the politicians need total peace and no confrontation (which does not always means war)?
Peace allows them to swindle money into Swiss accounts, without any check, and the environment remains conducive for the same with corporates and foreign enterprises doling in Billions into their accounts, which are run by their family loyalists inside and outside India.
2) Why peace is important for security?
In peace common man dies not politicians (hardly any).
Pakistani establishment (read:coward mercenary pakjabi army) knows Indian politicians (read:Italian congress) are pathalogically Corrupt and shameless (has clout over Indian media controlled by foreign money, so no war even after few days of battle cry), hence they (politicians) only fear harm to themselves and their dear ones, then pakistan's mercenary army needs to show its capability/existance (read:killing Hindoooos, anywhere and anytime, whenever they want, without India Army (GOI) giving any response, to satisfy theit own bloodthirsty failed state islamic awam). This justifies their existence and altered ego.
On the other hand it's evident, if they are attcked i.e a backlash from Indian Army, in that case they will lobb everything they have on the houses and safe houses of Indian politicians (read:Read Congress), killing them and their families this time around, not attacking civilian population in a usual pakistani terrorist fashion. This reason seems to be the most valid reason why the lungies in power will not take up confrontation. This time around pakistan has changed its strategy, which is evident from the fact that - Saeed, Lakhvi, Dawood, et al roam freely on the streets and not a stone is thrown by GOI, its behind the door deal i.e you dont touch our assests we will not harm yours (in India's case - politicians, their families and coterie). No doubt pakistan can launch n-number of daring attacks and GOI sleeps over, sending shameless dossiers!
These are the reasons why our corrupt, inept, shamlessly coward politicians fear taking any action, they fear for their lives in case of war!! Hence, let the cattle class die in vain, and they and their families should continue enjoying fruits of a democracy, while countrymen die of hunger, while Pawar lets grains rott. Present form of democracy only suites their greed, while they launch propoganda about wellness with the help of sold-out corporate media houses such as NDTV and CNN-IBN.
What about Kargil war ? You forget that Kargil war happened after Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons. The only reason why there hasn't been a war is because Pakistan is busy internally and on its western border, India has decided to adopt a taciturn response to terror and that US is in the neighbourhood.
A responsible powerful country like India would only use its nuclear weapons as a deterrent not as an offensive/defensive weapon. A rogue nuclear powered country like Pakistan can be expected to use nuclear position as a matter of policy. And furthermore Pakistan as its policy has threatened to use Nukes against India, in case its survival is threatened by any country.
India is working on it CS doctrine which seeks to operate within Pakistan's nuclear threshold. Pakistan as a counter has floated plans of using nukes tactically and within its territory to stop the Indian advance. Please read ColdStart doctrine to understand what is the Indian Army's thinking in detail.
Problem with India's CS doctrine and Pak's counter doctrine/nuclear policy is that there can be rapid escalation by the other in response. Not sure if WW3 can happen but if there is a perception that WW3, it is good for us. India should always portray that it is even madder than Pakistan when it comes to nuclear weapons, and will gladly want Pakistan to use one so that it decimate Pakistan inspite of losing half of India. The crazier Indian military, politicians sound when it comes to nukes, the more pressure will be on Pakistan both internally and by the world community. This is what India did successfully in Kargil thereby bringing it hostilities to an end quickly, and this gun to the head policy is what Pakistan has adopted successfully to get aid and avoid punitive actions despite its duplicity.
Now, there are a lot of ways by which we can increase Pakistan's nuclear threshold and call their bluffs
1. By strengthening our covert capabilities in Pakistan. So that we can take out MJC(Military-Jihad complex) assets covertly
2. By strengthening our Anti-terror capabilities in India. Fewer terrorist attacks would mean we can take decisive action in case of a rare attack.
3. By supporting Anti-establishment elements within Pak, covertly and overtly.
4. By putting pressure on USA, China and Saudi the three countries that are propping up the Pakistan state.
5. By increasing trade with Pak, which can ensure atleast partial cessation of terror activites in India by the business lobby.
6. Rapid Military modernisation and realization of CS doctrine by Indian armed forces
7. By using our clout to economically and diplomatically punish Pakistan
8. By threatening to use nukes incase of a strike by Pakistan, to not only decimate Pakistan but also decimate all friends of Pakistan.
9. Placing strike corps in such a manner so as to dismember Pak incase of any Pak escalation.