How to Deter China

jus

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Soldiers shout as they practice in temperatures of about minus 22 degrees in Heilongjiang province, December 16, 2014.


In the U.S. military, at least, the "pivot" to Asia has begun. By 2020, the navy and the air force plan to base 60 percent of their forces in the Asia-Pacific region. The Pentagon, meanwhile, is investing a growing share of its shrinking resources in new long-range bombers and nuclear-powered submarines designed to operate in high-threat environments.


These changes are clearly meant to check an increasingly assertive China. And with good reason: Beijing's expanding territorial claims threaten virtually every country along what is commonly known as "the first island chain," encompassing parts of Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan—all of which Washington is obligated to protect. But to reliably deter Chinese aggression, the Pentagon will have to go even further. Emerging Chinese capabilities are intended to blunt Washington's ability to provide military support to its allies and partners. Although deterrence through the prospect of punishment, in the form of air strikes and naval blockades, has a role to play in discouraging Chinese adventurism, Washington's goal, and that of its allies and partners, should be to achieve deterrence through denial—to convince Beijing that it simply cannot achieve its objectives with force.


Leveraging the latent potential of U.S., allied, and partner ground forces, Washington can best achieve this objective by establishing a series of linked defenses along the first island chain—an "Archipelagic Defense"—and, in so doing, deny Beijing the ability to achieve its revisionist aims through aggression or coercion."©


THE RISKS OF REVISIONISM

China wants to slowly but inexorably shift the regional military balance in its favor.

China claims that its rise is intended to be peaceful, but its actions tell a different story: that of a revisionist power seeking to dominate the western Pacific. Beijing has claimed sovereignty over not only Taiwan but also Japan's Senkaku Islands (known in China as the Diaoyu Islands) and most of the 1.7 million square miles that make up the East China and South China Seas, where six other countries maintain various territorial and maritime claims. And it has been unapologetic about pursuing those goals. In 2010, for example, China's then foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, dismissed concerns over Beijing's expansionism in a single breath, saying, "China is a big country, and other countries are small countries, and that is just a fact.""©

Consider Beijing's recent bullying in the South China Sea. In March 2014, Chinese coast guard boats blocked the Philippines from accessing its outposts on the Spratly Islands. Two months later, China moved an oil rig into Vietnam's exclusive economic zone, clashing with Vietnamese fishing boats. The moves echoed earlier incidents in the East China Sea. In September 2010, as punishment for detaining a Chinese fishing boat captain who had rammed two Japanese coast guard vessels, China temporarily cut off its exports to Japan of rare-earth elements, which are essential for manufacturing cell phones and computers. And in November 2013, China unilaterally declared an "air defense identification zone," subject to its own air traffic regulations, over the disputed Senkaku Islands and other areas of the East China Sea, warning that it would take military action against aircraft that refused to comply."©
 

Khagesh

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Hand over a bunch of pontoons to Vietnam capable of launching Shaurya type missiles. Develop a Shourya for Anti Shipping role and provide credit line for 100 examples of this pontoon+Shaurya complex to everybody and anybody in South East Asia. Well dispersed.

Develop something similar for Agni 5 and host at least 50/100 of these all along our coastline. But this time with nukes.

Na rahega baans na bajegi baansuri.
 

amoy

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Here are some of counter deterences to the deterences

China's Diego Garcias

Imagery shows progress of Chinese land building across Spratlys - IHS Jane's 360
China building airstrip-capable island on Fiery Cross Reef - IHS Jane's 360
China starts work on Mischief Reef land reclamation - IHS Jane's 360

China needs to construct the islands to build an integrated anti-stealth radar network.

By linking Chinese JY-26 counter-stealth phased array VHF/UHF radars into a giant interferometer, the sensitivity of the JY-26 counter-stealth radar network would increase exponentially.

The F-22 is optimized for stealth against X-band radar, which is about 3cm in wavelength. The JY-26 can operate in the UHF wavelength of 30cm (or 3 decimeters) and up. The Chinese JY-26 counter-stealth radar should be able to detect the F-22.
And the quasi-alliance with Russia - A Russia-China Alliance Brewing? | RAND
Bilaterally, both Beijing and Moscow are looking to leverage their relationship to enhance their leaders' standing domestically and maximize their influence among world powers. At the same time, they hope to avoid the costs they would incur if other states felt the need to counter-balance a renewed bond between Russia and China. Neither party seeks a world where their relationship is viewed as the second coming of the Sino-Soviet axis of the Cold War.
 
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Ray

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Detering China is feasible by weaning away nations from its periphery from the influence of China.
 

no smoking

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Hand over a bunch of pontoons to Vietnam capable of launching Shaurya type missiles. Develop a Shourya for Anti Shipping role and provide credit line for 100 examples of this pontoon+Shaurya complex to everybody and anybody in South East Asia. Well dispersed.
Funny thing is our Indian friends never realised that a war against China is the last thing these countries want.
Whatever India can give to them, China already had the better weapon long time ago. If Chinese can't use these weapon in such a dispute, why do you think India's missile can be different?
 

prohumanity

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I don't believe India wants a war with China...this type of propaganda is from other corners of the World. This is misleading as the reality is that China-India trade is growing faster and is reaching 100 billion dollars a year already. (almost equal to India-USA trade) There is a big possibility that in Sep2015 India will join SCO and Eurasia Union. India is also, one of the BRICS and a G-20 nation. In all these forums India interacts with China in a constructive manner. And don't forget upcoming state visit of Prime Minister Modi to China in May2015.
Am I getting it wrong OR many posters here are not able to see what I see coming. Absolutely NO WAR between India and China....a lot of trade between India and China in coming years. Pakistan is irrelevant and a spent bullet from West's armament.......it's useless.
God save you from west-financed and west inspired propaganda machine !
 

Khagesh

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Funny thing is our Indian friends never realised that a war against China is the last thing these countries want.
Whatever India can give to them, China already had the better weapon long time ago. If Chinese can't use these weapon in such a dispute, why do you think India's missile can be different?
South East Asia deserves some protection from Chinese expansionism.

And that can only happen if they arm up.

In any case South East Asia has formed itself into an economic union and it is only a matter of time before they put up a military alliance to defend their own interests.
 

Ray

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There will be no war, but the armed peace will continue as will the incursions.
 

Khagesh

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Armed Peace is the only Peace there can ever be.

Unarmed Peace can only happen with like minded people who have reconciled their differences.

South East Asia must re-arm with clear intent unless they each want a Spartley like situation at their doorsteps, a few years down the line.
 

no smoking

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South East Asia deserves some protection from Chinese expansionism.
They need a navy fleet as powerful as US navy to protect them, not a couple of obsolete India missile.

And that can only happen if they arm up.
If they need weapons, they have better options: USA, Russia and even French.

In any case South East Asia has formed itself into an economic union and it is only a matter of time before they put up a military alliance to defend their own interests.
First, unfortunately, China is already a part of this economic union, a core part.
Second, this military alliance doesn't work when some potential members are expecting Chinese protection against the threats from some other potential members.
 

MANT!

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Some of the Spratly islands claimed by assorted powers have civilians living on them, in the case of the Philippines, they are paid by the government to live on those islands

Wrecks, rats and roaches: Standoff in the South China Sea -- CNN.com

Any civilian deaths in any Chinese invasion of these islands would give the Chinese leadership a bit less leverage should they invade.. as world opinion would give the Philippines the moral high ground.

Philippines and the Spratly Islands - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It's a potential flashpoint, but I do hope it never gets to a shooting conflict.
 
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prohumanity

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If a nation is very strong...who cares about world opinion...world opinion becomes a piece of used toilet paper. NATO invaded Iraq, Invaded Libya, destabilized Syria and Ukraine.....what world opinion did...nothing ! They just watched and trembled in fear. Why? Because NATO is strong and no body can dare to antagonize it. The only way for India is to make a very strong and formidable military in order to promote its "UNiversal Brotherhood" "Non-violence" "harmony and peaceful coexistence " principles and beliefs. A weak nation can not promote its great values.
India should make it very clear that it does not want to harm any nation unless harmed and wants to engage in peaceful and win-win dialogue with all nations of the world. One biggest principle of Indian civilization is "Entire world is our family" so why should we fight with our own family members.
 

Khagesh

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They need a navy fleet as powerful as US navy to protect them, not a couple of obsolete India missile.

If they need weapons, they have better options: USA, Russia and even French.
No doubt. Aapke aur hamare khyal milte julte hain (We think alike).

I was merely suggesting the cheapest possible deterrents.

Something Chinese should we well aware of considering their own history.



First, unfortunately, China is already a part of this economic union, a core part.
Second, this military alliance doesn't work when some potential members are expecting Chinese protection against the threats from some other potential members.
Ah you mean Divide and Rule. Like em imperialists.

Ok I am listening.
 

Khagesh

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On a separate note, looks like in some parts of the world, the so called world opinion matters more than the opinion of the country that is actually being threatened.
 

no smoking

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No doubt. Aapke aur hamare khyal milte julte hain (We think alike).

I was merely suggesting the cheapest possible deterrents.

Something Chinese should we well aware of considering their own history.
Unfortunately, no one wants this useless deterrents unless they are given for free.



Ah you mean Divide and Rule. Like em imperialists.

Ok I am listening.
Thailand VS Vietnam, Korea VS Japan for example.
No, in most of their history, they fought lot more wars against each other than Chinese.
 

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