A close friendship that has turned sour
- Relations between China and Myanmar have worsened over the conflict in the Kokang region
Subir Bhaumik
Empty gesture?
It never looked like it could get this worse. The close ties that China has developed with the military junta in Myanmar since the late 1980s now appear to belong to the past. China was the only major nation that firmly supported Myanmar's military junta when it faced Western sanctions following the violent suppression of democratic movements and the long incarceration of Aung San Suu Kyi. It supplied large quantities of military hardware to the 'Tatmadaw' - the Burmese army- funded the junta's limited development programme, and invested heavily across the nation.
But Myanmar's new regime, led by President Thein Sein, appears determined to balance Myanmar's overdependence on its northern neighbour by engaging with the West, Japan , India as well as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The latest manifestation of this growing distance from China seems to have upset Beijing enormously.
In mid-March, a top Chinese official warned Myanmar that its military would take "resolute measures" if Myanmar failed to ensure the safety of the Kokang border area.The warning came after fighter jets were rushed to the border by Beijing when four Chinese farmers were killed by a bomb dropped by a Myanmar military aircraft in Yunnan. Fan Changlong, the vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, told Min Aung Hlaing, the commander-in-chief of Myanmar's armed forces, that the Myanmarese military should "seriously control" its troops and prevent any recurrence of such an incident. In a direct communication to Myanmar's commander-in-chief, Changlong warned that "Otherwise, Chinese military will take resolute measures to protect the safety of Chinese people and their assets." He added that Myanmar should understand the seriousness of the incident, launch a thorough investigation, and also provide compensation to the families of victims.
His strongly-worded remarks came after State media reported that a bomb from a Myanmar aircraft exploded in a sugarcane field near the city of Lincang, killing four people and injuring nine others. Myanmarese officials expressed 'deep sorrow' over the incident after initially stating that their aircraft had not dropped a bomb. They blamed Kokang rebels for triggering the incident to spoil Myanmar-China relations. But that did not help. Chinese fighter jets were sent to "track, monitor, warn and chase away" Myanmar military planes that had flown close to the Chinese border, the air force spokesman, Shen Jinke, told Xinhua on the same day. In a stern diplomatic protest, Yang Houlan, China's envoy to Myanmar, called on the country's vice-president, Sai Mauk Kham, and Min Aung Hlaing to issue "solemn representations". On the same day, Liu Zhenmin, China's deputy foreign minister, summoned Thit Linn Ohn, Myanmar's ambassador to Beijing, to a meeting where he urged Myanmar to carry out a thorough investigation into the bombing.
China is clearly upset with the Myanmar army for unleashing a powerful offensive, including the use of airpower, against the Kokang ethnic rebels led by their pro-Chinese commander, Peng Jiasheng. The fighting prompted Myanmar to declare a state of emergency in Kokang in February. More than 30,000 people, mostly Chinese migrants but also many Kokangs, have fled to China's Yunnan province from Myanmar. Kokangs are closer to the Chinese in ethnicity, and speak a language that is not very different. On several previous occasions, fighting between Jiasheng's rebels and the Myanmar army has left Beijing with the burden of tackling tens of thousands of refugees fleeing the border. Chinese officials in Yunnan, who spoke to me on the condition of anonymity, said that they were 'extremely worried' over the fate of the recent migrants from China who had settled down in the border provinces of Myanmar. Their numbers have risen even in cities like Mandalay and Lashio, even Yangon. Many of them have already managed 'white cards' that are issued to those who would be considered for citizenship.
The Myanmar government's decision to scrap the white cards in February had put Chinese migrants in a tizzy. The frequent fighting between Myanmarese troops and ethnic rebels like the Kokangs worry China because the violence has the potential to trigger a huge exodus of Chinese migrants who number a few millions. Beijing is also sore with Myanmar for not taking any initiative to resume work on the $3.6 billion Myitsone hydel project. The Thein Sein government, faced with resistance to the project in the rebellious Kachin province, stopped working on it in 2010. The hydro-electric project was conceived, financed and partially built by the State-owned China Power Investment Corporation to take electricity across the border and help industrialize the Chinese province of Yunnan. At a height of 152 metres and with a potential capacity of 6,000 megawatts of electricity, the Myitsone project was to be the largest of seven dams at the headwaters of the Irrawaddy river. On its completion, it would have been the 15th largest dam in the world.
The veteran Myanmar-watcher, Bertil Lintner, says that the military junta began to change track in 2006 after a detailed review of the country's foreign relations. The review document, running into 380 pages in Burmese, talks about the 'dangers of over-dependence' on China and the need to 'open out to other countries' like those in the West, Japan, India, and member states of the Asean. The subsequent decisions of partial democratization, releasing Aung San Suu Kyi from prison, and the holding of elections and by-elections are all part of a larger game-plan to entice the West and other democratic nations that can act as a counterweight to China. Now that the United States of America and its allies have got a foothold, they might go easy on pushing the democratic agenda because they value their presence to counter China strategically. That would work to Myanmar's advantage.
When Kokang rebels attacked and killed nearly 80 Burmese troops in February, an anti-Chinese wave swept across Myanmar. The military-backed government did much to fuel the feeling. It projected the army as a bulwark against Chinese designs, a move that is likely to benefit Thein Sein and his allies against Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy in the parliamentary polls scheduled for the winter of 2015. For the first time since 1962, the army and politicians supporting the junta face the prospect of losing power. In 1990, the NLD did sweep the polls but the army did not honour the people's verdict and hung on to power. That would be difficult this time if elections are held. Several analysts feel that the fighting in the north could be used as an excuse to delay the parliamentary polls. The decision to announce a referendum to amend certain constitutional provisions has been welcomed. But that could also be used to delay the elections if there is a controversy on some of the contentious provisions like 59(f) that prohibits anyone married to a foreigner from contesting for presidency. The clause was clearly implemented to keep Aung San Suu Kyi out of power because her late husband and both her sons are British citizens.
India has an issue with Myanmar on the continued presence of northeastern rebel groups in the Sagaing province. After Bhutan and Bangladesh pushed these rebels out of their borders with firm action by the police and the military, Upper Burma remains the remaining safe haven for northeastern rebels. Myanmar has repeatedly dodged Indian pleas for military action against these groups, not the least because it has other pressing needs. The difference between Chinese and Indian positions is obvious - India wants action against the northeastern rebels; China does want any against the Kokangs or the Wa rebels.
India has already stepped up its diplomatic efforts to get the Myanmar army to neutralize the Sagaing bases. There are indications that the Indian government may not renew the ceasefire with the NSCN's Khaplang faction, which has served as a guardian for other rebel outfits like Ulfa, PLA of Manipur, and NDFB's Songbijit faction. Many in Delhi feel this is the right time to persuade the Myanmarese forces to hit the bases of the rebels from India's Northeast because Thein Sein would need the West, Japan, India and the Asean to balance off China's grip.
A close friendship that has turned sour
