Background: China has invested over $20 billion in securing oil from Sudan. They built and operate Port Sudan which all oil flows. Sudan has blocked all oil shipments from the South demanding 10x transport cost. In desperation, the new government in Juba seeks to break this dependence on transport through the North. With Southern oil no longer flowing to Port Sudan, it is uneconomical to run and Chinese investment becomes worthless. France has seen the opportunity to move and Total has offered to reroute oil through its Uganda/Kenya pipeline.
Total is building a pipeline in Uganda to access 1.1 billion barrels, S. Sudan sits on 7 billion. It is no matter to extend the pipeline to access 7X what was originally planned. The cost will be extracted over time with oil shipments from Juba. It is a win-win for S. Sundan, Uganda, Kenya and France. It is lose-lose for Sudan and China. China sent its representatives to Sudan to stop the fees nonsense b/c they are losing production and if this continues, lose out entirely.
So, no matter win win or loss loss, at the end of the day Juba will cover the pipeline costs for Total or Uganda or Kenya?? As part of their feasibility study for the pipeline project, has S. Sudan or Total in good will assessed cost per barrel through the proposed pipe through U+K then via Kenyan exit port, in comparison to the established route to Port Sudan?
Will (N) Sudan be a sitting duck allowing the drain of their major revenue stream? (supposedly retaining the routing via North was part of the deal for secession).
And in Khartoum there's a refinery for the crude oil
It is Khartoum that is charging 10X transit fees, it is themselves who are digging their own graves. They don't care so much since it was Chinese money that paid for those facilities to squander them to get what they see as theirs.
Of course Juba will pay over time, that is how all energy deals work.
Now a problem can be there's no "West" as a monolith... there're France, Germany, Greece, Spain ... Ireland... individually each struggling their way to save their own ass
China has propped the regime in N sudan for oil only. They have protected them in the SC, when serious charges with proof was presented over the gross human rights violations in S.Sudan. China could have used it's influence with the leaders to moderate their position but they never acted in a responsible way and continued to support them in international fora and also supply them with arms.
This does not behoove well for a nation aspiring to be a super power with global reach.
I dont think they should, they are there to do business, not to protect some idiotic values... I think we should start the same, reason and logic is more important than emotions.