For China, it is very important to defeat Vietnam. It will serve as a wake-up call to Philippine among other contenders and remind them of the false hope for unrealistic American engagement. Furthermore, unlike Philippine, Vietnam shares land borders with China. So China's attack against Vietnam won't be restricted by sea. It also can utilize its superior land force to invade Vietnam. Chinese army has plenty of ground warfare experience against Vietnam in previous two wars. It can destroy Vietnamese infrastructures and facilities to sustain the war and economic growth, and bring about the regime change or a civil war in Vietnam. That's the only cost-effective objectives for the army but not the costly occupation. Leave the chaotic Vietnam to Vietnamese themselves. A dissolved Vietnam will need another 50 years to muster enough strength to strike China.
China does not have the balls for an all-out war with Vietnam. They'll resort to occassional harassments of naval assets but they'll not attack Vietnam. Chicoms do not have balls! They cannot even invade little Taiwan how much more superpower humbler Vietnam?
The US had balls in Cuba as the World nearly ended in 1962. It was the Soviets wholost their balls in that engagement. The US is not claiming Cuba as part of its territory or that Cuba is usurping any of its islands so there is no reason for them to invade that impoverished Carribbean outpost. Besides the US already have a foothold in Cuba, ever heard of Guantanamo Bay Naval Base? The Cubans should be the one to invade the US (or a US Naval Base) to get recover Guantanamo Bay, if they have the balls...
How about you China, the greatest civilization in the World? You don't have the balls!
I think this article is a result of premature efforts to project oneself as a heavy weight strategist. It fails due to half baked ideas and incomplete knowledge of various aspects of the issue.
It doesn't merit a serious discussion here. I wouldn't believe China has any intent to have full on conventional war with Vietnam for South China sea resources. Not in the coming few years for sure. They still believe they have better ways to protect their interests and things aren't that worse yet.
Small skirmishes cannot be ruled out though. Because lets face it, future wars would all be for control on resources. Not that historical battles weren't for greener pastures, they were. But under the cloak of abstractions like nationalism, religion (things like Jihad) etc. That would no longer be the case in future.
Last edited by Virendra; 22-07-11 at 04:15 PM.
and what makes you think that Nam is going to bow down to you even the UASF conducted the same ops you are talking about but still the US lost remeber Rolling Thunder and Linebacker missions they beat the crud out of north vietnam physically but yet the won the nams have a grate deal of love for thier country or have you forgot a small battle where the nams give you guys a Bloody nose called 'self-defense counterattack against Vietnam' where The reason cited for the attack was the mistreatment of Vietnam's ethnic Chinese minority and the Vietnamese occupation of the Spratly Islands (claimed by the PRC). To prevent Soviet intervention on Vietnam's behalf but during the course of the war the PLA could claim to have crushed several of the Vietcong's regular units including the 316A Infantry Division, the 308th Infantry Division, the 3rd Infantry Division, the 345th Infantry Division and the 346th Infantry Division, but they also suffered extensive casualties themselves. The communist government of Vietnam had chosen to flee from Hanoi to the city of Huế, 540 kilometers to the south, but the combination of high casualties, a badly organized command, harsh Vietnamese resistance and the risk of the Soviets entering the conflict stopped the Chinese from going any further.
and acted like rabid bandits when on the way back the PLA destroyed all local infrastructure and housing and looted all useful equipment and resources (including livestock), completely paralyzing the economy of northern Vietnam sad even the puny vitenamies can give china a run for her money