Chinese GDP passed 6 Trillion Mark

[kickok1975]

Beijing, March 01

Chinese statistic Bureau just released latest data on China's 2010 GDP. It is 39.7983 trillion RMB. Based on today exchage rate of 1 USD=6.57125RMB. China's GDP is equavellent of 6.05 trillion USD. China officially passed 6 trillion mark.

Congratualtions!

 

[kickok1975]

The national GDP is still 20% lower than the adds up of 31 Chinese provinces GDP. It has been like this for several years. Did China intentially hide its GDP or it's a sign that Central government lack of trust of local governments?

 

[redragon]

The national GDP is still 20% lower than the adds up of 31 Chinese provinces GDP. It has been like this for several years. Did China intentially hide its GDP or it's a sign that Central government lack of trust of local governments?

there must be overlaps among the # of province, that does not necessary means someone is cooking the book.

 

[badguy2000]

The national GDP is still 20% lower than the adds up of 31 Chinese provinces GDP. It has been like this for several years. Did China intentially hide its GDP or it's a sign that Central government lack of trust of local governments?

1. overlap of statistic exists.especially it is hard to caculate the revenue of those trans-provincial enterprizes.

2.Beijing indeed doesn't trust the date provided by provincial administration. So, Beijing usually uses the data provided by its directly-control statistic administrations.

3. Beijing and Most CHinese people indeed want to "hide" some GDP and try to keep a low profile.
CHinese just want to avoid the focus on the expansion of CHinese economy power from the world.

 

[badguy2000]

In 2015, CHinese per capital nominal GDP might surpass 10K USD.

At that time,most areas in China will finish industrialzation and start to step into "post-industrialzed society".
Then, the expansion of industry section in CHina will gradually stop and "service section" will expand rapidly. "Service section" will replace "Industry section" and become the powerhouse of CHinese economy.

After 2015, CHinese economy growth might slow gradually, but will still grow much faster than most developed counties like USA, Japan and EU,until CHinese nominal per capital GDP is equal to them, that is ,over 30-40K USD.

 

[Rage]

China was supposed to have a unified GDP calculation process, to eliminate over-stating by state-governments and drawbacks such as 'local intervention' by prefectur-al ones, in 2010.

What became of that?

 

[kickok1975]

In 2015, CHinese per capital nominal GDP might surpass 10K USD.

At that time,most areas in China will finish industrialzation and start to step into "post-industrialzed society".
Then, the expansion of industry section in CHina will gradually stop and "service section" will expand rapidly. "Service section" will replace "Industry section" and become the powerhouse of CHinese economy.

After 2015, CHinese economy growth might slow gradually, but will still grow much faster than most developed counties like USA, Japan and EU,until CHinese nominal per capital GDP is equal to them, that is ,over 30-40K USD.

China has a long way to catch up in term of GDP per capita. Major Cities like Beijing, Shanghai may have chance to reach 30~40K USD in 10 years. For vast area of China, it would take generations.

 

[kickok1975]

there must be overlaps among the # of province, that does not necessary means someone is cooking the book.

Thanks for your education.

 

[badguy2000]

China has a long way to catch up in term of GDP per capita. Major Cities like Beijing, Shanghai may have chance to reach 30~40K USD in 10 years. For vast area of China, it would take generations.

well, the increase of per capital nominal GDP will increase much faster than you think,due to the combination of real growth, inflation and appreciation of RMB.
if USD is still used as the measure of global per capital nominal GDP in 2020,then
the per capital nominal GDP of Beijing and SHanghai might reach 30-40K USD or more in 2020.
the one of costal CHina might be 20K USD in 2020.
the one of inland CHina might be 10K USD in 2020

Here is one prediciton of CHinese nominal per capital GDP . I wrote it in 2007 on Tianya.cn.

http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/worldlook/1/155129.shtml

 

[kickok1975]

I would be satisfied if the actual purchasing power of Chinese people reached $10K+. If we can successfully control the inflation, it might happen in 10 years.

 

[kickok1975]

well, the increase of per capital nominal GDP will increase much faster than you think,due to the combination of real growth, inflation and appreciation of RMB.
if USD is still used as the measure of global per capital nominal GDP in 2020,then
the per capital nominal GDP of Beijing and SHanghai might reach 30-40K USD or more in 2020.
the one of costal CHina might be 20K USD in 2020.
the one of inland CHina might be 10K USD in 2020

Here is one prediciton of CHinese nominal per capital GDP . I wrote it in 2007 on Tianya.cn.

http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/worldlook/1/155129.shtml

I would say you are a little too optimistic. We just can't grow relentlessly like last 3 decades. The most optimistic forecast is that China will have equivalent GDP as USA by as early as 2020, which is roughly 10 years from now. By then US GDP would be around 18~19 trillion dollars. Even use that number to calculate, our GDP per capita is still just barely over $10K

 

[badguy2000]

I would be satisfied if the actual purchasing power of Chinese people reached $10K+. If we can successfully control the inflation, it might happen in 10 years.

the actual perchuasing power of 10K usd is not a big deal to CHina now.

we all know exact what is the current real life quality of ordinary Beijingese and SHanghaiese....that is exact the life quality of 10k USD..

I have been to Hongkong. Frankly speaking, I don't think that the real life quality of Hongkongese is better than the one of SHanghaiese,althought Hongkongese per capital nominal GDP is 30-40K USD.

 

[badguy2000]

I would say you are a little too optimistic. We just can't grow relentlessly like last 3 decades. The most optimistic forecast is that China will have equivalent GDP as USA by as early as 2020, which is roughly 10 years from now. By then US GDP would be around 18~19 trillion dollars. Even use that number to calculate, our GDP per capita is still just barely over $10K

however, the past 4 years has proved that my prediction in 2007 is right,that CHinese per capital nominal GDP can increase from 2000 USD of 2006 to 4500-5000 USD of 2010.

 

[kickok1975]

the actual perchuasing power of 10K usd is not a big deal to CHina now.

we all know exact what is the current real life quality of ordinary Beijingese and SHanghaiese....that is exact the life quality of 10k USD..

I have been to Hongkong. Frankly speaking, I don't think that the real life quality of Hongkongese is better than the one of SHanghaiese,althought Hongkongese per capital nominal GDP is 30-40K USD.

The population of Beijing, Shanghai is just small portion of China's total population. Most of their small apartments, if they own, are worth more than inidvidual house in US. But life quality there, as well as HongKong doesn't give one a feeling that he is living a wealthy life. That's a sharp contrast to middle class people live in US, Canada and Australia. That's also my concern that even China's GDP per capita rises, the living standard, purchasing power would not catch up due to inflation.

 

[badguy2000]

The population of Beijing, Shanghai is just small portion of China's total population. Most of their small apartments, if they own, are worth more than inidvidual house in US. But life quality there, as well as HongKong doesn't give one a feeling that he is living a wealthy life. That's a sharp contrast to middle class people live in US, Canada and Australia. That's also my concern that even China's GDP per capita rises, the living standard, purchasing power would not catch up due to inflation.

well, CHina is much more densely-populated than USA, Canada and Australia.

Even if CHinese per capital nominal GDP were equal to USA, Chinese common can not live a real life quality equal to thin-populated countries like USA.the real life quality of Japanese fully proves it.

Besides,you should have compare the life quality of SHanghaiese with that of NewYorkers.

And, Shanghai and Beijing don't have the highest life quality.
many Chinese small cities in fact has higher life quality than Shanghai and Beijing,such as Zhangjiagang,Wenzhou,Ningbo..etc.

 

[p2prada]

You will need a $50Trillion economy at today's standards if you want to match US per capita.

Anyway your nominal GDP has grown at over 20% since 2000 until 2008. So, more appreciation will push Chinese GDP past US by 2020. Per capita, not so quickly.

 

[badguy2000]

You will need a $50Trillion economy at today's standards if you want to match US per capita.

Anyway your nominal GDP has grown at over 20% since 2000 until 2008. So, more appreciation will push Chinese GDP past US by 2020. Per capita, not so quickly.

for you reference,

China's GDP increases from 8.9 trillion RMB to 39.7 trillion RMB during the past decade (2000-2010).

It is not surprising at all that CHina's GDP is to grow from 39.7 trillion RMB to over 100 trillion RMB in the coming decade(2011-2020).

Considering that RMB is to be appreciated,CHina's nominal GDP might be over 20 trillion USD(if RMB's exchange rate is 5:1). At that time, China's per capital nominal GDP will be about 15-20K USD. the one of CHinese major cities like SHanghai might be 40-50K USD

 

[p2prada]

CCP recently announced a growth of 7-7.5% from now onwards, if you add population growth of 1% then per capita growth is 6 to 6.5% every year. Also considering 7-7.5% growth is sustainable by maintaining a 5% inflation, it is possible. But if you want inflation back to 3% then GDP growth will be lower with lesser govt spending in the long run. We are not even talking about competition from other countries in manufacturing. So if you want to go from $5000 now to $20000 in 2020 then your per capita growth should be much higher than it is now. The 10% 'GDP growth that you were achieveing would have done the trick if the same policy was followed. But with 7%growth per capita cannot reach $20000 with today's exchange rate.

According to current statistics your per capita cannot quadruple in 10 years because it does not have 10% growth that is required. At your current per capita growth you will quadruple from today only in 2025. So your effective per capita income will be around $15k in 2020.

Maintaining a 5:1 exchange rate is not possible till 2020 either. You will have to equalize your currency with the Euro or Dollar if you want the Yuan to be traded internationally. Equalizing will mean Chinese per capita in nominal terms will exceed the US per capita by 2020 which is awesome for chest beating but not good for economy. That's why I suggested a 50% decrease in exchange ratio by 2020 to 2:1 or 3:1. But real GDP will give a different picture.

Also you cannot take past growth as a measure for future growth. In 10 years the US per capita has doubled from $22000 to $48000 today. But will that happen again by 2020? Also you will have to start printing less money in the future, especially if Yuan is still set to depreciate. So reaching 100Trillion RMB is not easily achievable without affecting inflation.

 

[badguy2000]

CCP recently announced a growth of 7-7.5% from now onwards, if you add population growth of 1% then per capita growth is 6 to 6.5% every year. Also considering 7-7.5% growth is sustainable by maintaining a 5% inflation, it is possible. But if you want inflation back to 3% then GDP growth will be lower with lesser govt spending in the long run. We are not even talking about competition from other countries in manufacturing. So if you want to go from $5000 now to $20000 in 2020 then your per capita growth should be much higher than it is now. The 10% 'GDP growth that you were achieveing would have done the trick if the same policy was followed. But with 7%growth per capita cannot reach $20000 with today's exchange rate.

According to current statistics your per capita cannot quadruple in 10 years because it does not have 10% growth that is required. At your current per capita growth you will quadruple from today only in 2025. So your effective per capita income will be around $15k in 2020.

Maintaining a 5:1 exchange rate is not possible till 2020 either. You will have to equalize your currency with the Euro or Dollar if you want the Yuan to be traded internationally. Equalizing will mean Chinese per capita in nominal terms will exceed the US per capita by 2020 which is awesome for chest beating but not good for economy. That's why I suggested a 50% decrease in exchange ratio by 2020 to 2:1 or 3:1. But real GDP will give a different picture.

Also you cannot take past growth as a measure for future growth. In 10 years the US per capita has doubled from $22000 to $48000 today. But will that happen again by 2020? Also you will have to start printing less money in the future, especially if Yuan is still set to depreciate. So reaching 100Trillion RMB is not easily achievable without affecting inflation.

During 2000-2010, CHinese economy avearge growth is about 11%, with a average inflation of about 4% . it makes China's GDP increase from 8.9 trillion RMB to 39.7 trillion RMB. The nominal growth totaled 450% during the 10 years(2000-2010) .

In the coming decade(2011-2020),even if CHinese economy were to grow only 6% and its average inflation were 4%, CHina's GDP in 2020 would still be 105 trillion RMB. . The nominal growth will total 265% during the 10 years(2011-2020) .


Furthermore, if Chinese economy is to grow 8% and its average inflation is 4%( I think it is quite possible), then CHinese GDP in 2020would be about 128 trillion RMB. that is 25.4 trillion USD( if RMB/USD exchange rate is 5:1). The nominal growth will total 322% during the 10 years(2011-2020) .



Frankly speaking, I think that the real average growth of Chinese economy might be between 6%-8% during 2011-2020.

Thus, it is quite possible that China's GDP might be between 105-128 trillion RMB(21-25.4 trillion USD,if RMB/USD exchange rate is 5:1 ). And China's per capital nominal GDP might be about 15-20K USD in 2020.

Of course, it will be possible that the per capital GDP all over the world will be measured not by USD,but RMB in 2020.

 

[p2prada]

During 2000-2010, CHinese economy avearge growth is about 11%, with a average inflation of about 4% . it makes China's GDP increase from 8.9 trillion RMB to 39.7 trillion RMB. The nominal growth totaled 450% during the 10 years(2000-2010) .

In the coming decade(2011-2020),even if CHinese economy were to grow only 6% and its average inflation were 4%, CHina's GDP in 2020 would still be 105 trillion RMB. . The nominal growth will total 265% during the 10 years(2011-2020) .


Furthermore, if Chinese economy is to grow 8% and its average inflation is 4%( I think it is quite possible), then CHinese GDP in 2020would be about 128 trillion RMB. that is 25.4 trillion USD( if RMB/USD exchange rate is 5:1). The nominal growth will total 322% during the 10 years(2011-2020) .



Frankly speaking, I think that the real average growth of Chinese economy might be between 6%-8% during 2011-2020.

Thus, it is quite possible that China's GDP might be between 105-128 trillion RMB(21-25.4 trillion USD,if RMB/USD exchange rate is 5:1 ). And China's per capital nominal GDP might be about 15-20K USD in 2020.

In plain statistics, yes. RMB will go upto 100Trillion+. But I don't see why CCP will print that many notes in order to keep the exchange rate stable. It is obvious that in 5 years or so China will not be able to compete with lower cost countries like Indonesia, Mexico or India in low cost manufacturing. So, China can focus on high value goods and sell it at a slightly lower rate than developed countries. That way you will have a cost advantage against more developed economies like Germany and Japan instead of competing with India and Thailand which is the case today. You can do this with an exchange ratio of 2:1 or 3:1 as easily as today and all this while you have greater possibility at internationalizing the Yuan.

Of course, it will be possible that the per capital GDP all over the world will be measured not by USD,but RMB in 2020.

Not if the exchange rate is 5:1 with an economy the size of US. 2:1 or 3:1 and even I will jump in, if I have the money by then. :thumb:

5:1 is unsustainable for an entire decade with your current size. External and Internal factors will bring it down eventually.

If you remember in 1990s, your exchange rate was 5:1 and became 8:1 in 2000. India's exchange rate was 16:1 in 90s and became 43:1 in 2000. It was fine for you guys until 2000. After 2000, you had a big surplus and the Americans had a big deficit. So, both Europe as well as US forced CCP to reign in Yuan to 6:1 as of today. US is still asking for further revaluation of Yuan and it does not look like it's going to change some time soon.

It is simple really, the lower the exchange ratio the better the currency looks. If you want to go international and still keep Yuan at 5:1 it's not going to happen. You won't get to cut the cake and eat it as well.